Archive for April, 2026

• Morning News: April 17, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 17th, 2026 at 7:02 am

  Oil Majors Lose Another Appeal of $5 Billion Kazakh Sulfur Fine

  France and Germany Split on Europe’s Role in Securing Hormuz

  Surging Gas Prices Have Hit These US Cities the Hardest

  What Lagging Jet Fuel Supplies Could Mean for Airlines and Travelers

  Yield Bets Pay Off for Traders Willing to Tune Out War Risks

  Buffer ETFs Are Insurance You’re Better Off Without

  Let’s Not Worsen the Illness of Debanking With More State

  State Street Profit Rises On Fee Growth

  America’s Global Rizz Is Going Up in Smoke

  Can a Republican Defy Trump and Survive? We’re About to Find Out

  Hegseth Says Climate Change Is ‘Crap.’ The Military Is Still Bracing for It

  It’s Harder to Hide From a Bad Job Market in Grad School

  Housing’s Spring Selling Season Is Here. It’s Not Looking Pretty

  Want to Retire Rich? Here Are Strategies You Can Deploy at Any Age

  Cancer Cures In the ‘Closed Economy’ That Is the World Economy

  Paul Ehrlich, and the Perils of the Scientific Deformations

  In Space, No One Can Whine About Inequality

  Anthropic’s Mythos Gatecrashes IMF Meetings

  Washington’s Scramble to Get Anthropic’s Powerful New Model

  Why the AI Backlash Is Only Going to Get Worse

  The $10 Billion Startup Training AI to Replace the White-Collar Workforce

  Nvidia Alum Rides China’s Robotics Wave to 187% Debut Pop

  Alstom Shares Plunge on Profit Warning

  Pentagon Seeks Help From Ford and G.M.

  Ford Will Partner More With Chinese Automakers Overseas

  Netflix Chair Reed Hastings to Leave Board in June

  Ellison Pledges at Least 30 Paramount-Warner Movies a Year

  Chocolate Makers Look to Cut Down on Cocoa After Price Volatility

  OpenTable Won Over the Wrong Customers, Then Changed Course

  The Only Thing N.B.A. Players Love More Than Basketball Is Starting Podcasts

  Roger Adams Dies at 71; Invented the Rolling Sneakers Known as Heelys

  What Heelys Taught Me About Momentum

  QVC Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, Plans to Restructure $6.6 Billion of Debt

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• Morning News: April 16, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 16th, 2026 at 7:09 am

  Turkey to Improve Transport Network as It Eyes Europe-Gulf Route

  What the U.S. Blockade Means for Iran’s Economy

  European Airlines Face Fuel Shortages Within Weeks

  The US Oil Industry Doesn’t Want the Iran War Either

  What LIV Golf’s Demise Means for Saudi Influence

  China’s G.D.P. Stronger Than Expected, Led by Infrastructure Spending

  Eurozone Inflation for March Revised Higher on Sharper Energy Prices

  European Banks Can Withstand Current Shocks, Watchdog Head Says

  The Decades-Old Legal Question at the Heart of the Fed Chair Showdown

  A Botched Fed Transition Is a Stain on Independence

  Wall Street Quants See an Edge in Polymarket Earnings Forecasts

  Schwab Assets Top Estimates as Clients Put More Money in Market

  BNY Profit Beats Analyst Estimates, Fueled by Record Revenue

  Private Credit Panic Says More About Washington Than Finance

  Tax Refund Splurge for Many Americans Is Paying Down Debt

  Congress Has a Rare Chance to Stop Warrantless Searches

  America’s War On Cartels Is a Risk For Global Banks

  Reduced Lawsuit Abuse Would Have a Salutary Price Impact

  TikTok Is to Republicans What Fox Is to Democrats

  Has the Era of the Mega-Layoff Arrived?

  Toxic Gas-Emitting Plants Get Pollution Reprieve Under Trump

  Carbon Removal Industry Reels as Microsoft Retreats

  What Happens When $90 Billion of Data Centers Come to Town

  India’s Computer Science Grads Are Unprepared for the AI Revolution

  To Make a Tech Unicorn, Mix a Few Workers With Some AI Hype

  How Anthropic Learned Mythos Was Too Dangerous for the Wild

  Mark Zuckerberg Dives Into AI to Build a Zuckbot

  Chip Maker TSMC Is More Bullish Than Ever on AI, Despite Iran War

  Musk Asks Suppliers to Move at ‘Light Speed’ on New Chipmaking Plan

  Tesla Cybertruck Sales Were Inflated by a SpaceX Buying Spree

  It’s Up to SpaceX and Blue Origin to Stick the Moon Landing

  Sneaker Company Allbirds Plans to Pivot to A.I. Yes, A.I.

  Next Time You Order a Dairy Queen Blizzard, You May Be Talking to AI

  PepsiCo Sales and Profit Exceed Estimates on Snacks Rebound

  5 Takeaways From the Live Nation Antitrust Trial

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• Morning News: April 15, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 15th, 2026 at 7:07 am

  The US and Iran Should Turn This Pause Into Peace

  IMF Warns of Deep Global Downturn if War Is Prolonged

  Trump Isolation Deepens on World Stage as Allies Rebuff, Condemn

  America’s Amateur Diplomats Are Set Up to Fail

  Europe Works on Postwar Hormuz Shipping Plan—Sans U.S.

  LA Port Chief Lays Out Lengthy Timeline for Hormuz Recovery, Sees Higher Costs

  Why Aren’t Americans Working as Hard as They Used to?

  The Retirement Countdown: How to Retire Rich

  Your Retirement Can Be Funded Without Triggering Taxable Events

  For High Earners, Tax Season Hell Is Just Beginning

  For Middle and Working Classes, This Tax Day Is Like Christmas

  All Government Spending Is Painful, and Paid for Right Now

  Prosecutors Made Unannounced Visit to Federal Reserve in DC

  If You Invested $1,000 In Trump Memecoin at Its Peak Before Presidential Inauguration, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today

  Morgan Stanley Stock Traders Join in Record Wall Street Windfall

  BofA Stock Traders Notch Record Fueled by Momentum in Markets

  BofA Discloses $20 Billion of Loans to Private-Credit Firms

  No Signs of Major Default Cycle in Private Credit, Ares CEO Says

  Pimco Buys All $400 Million of Bonds Sold by Blue Owl BDC

  Consulting Used to Be a Dream First Job. AI Changed That

  Anthropic Attracts Investor Offers at an $800 Billion Valuation

  Anthropic’s Mythos Is a Wake-up Call For Everyone, Not Just Banks

  Jane Street Invests $1 Billion in CoreWeave, Boosts Spending Plans

  China’s Data Centers Are Plugging Into REIT-Style Financing Wave

  China’s Control Over Tech Is Threatening India’s Manufacturing Dreams

  War Exposes Gaps in India’s Clean Energy Push

  How Airline Passengers Are Being Hit by the Jet-Fuel Crunch

  11 Electric Cars Worth a Look as Gas Prices Soar

  ‘We Will Not Survive’: Toyota, Honda and Ford CEOs Issue Chilling Warning About China — and It Could Hit Your Portfolio

  The Bezos Vs. Musk Space Race Is Heating Up

  Snap to Cut 16% of Workforce as It Seeks Profitability

  Quince’s Best-Kept Secret Isn’t Its Cheap Cashmere and Couches

  Hermes Sales Growth Slows as Iran War Hits Luxury Recovery

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• CWS Market Review – April 14, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 14th, 2026 at 7:30 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  In normal markets, traders keep their eyes on boring but important things like earnings, interest rates, industrial production and manufacturing.

  Not anymore! In this market, the main drivers are things like ceasefires, the Strait of Hormuz and anything from Truth Social. Indeed, one tweet from the Commander in Chief can send the markets reeling, in any direction.

  

  Lately, I’m pleased to say that it’s been good news that’s moving the market. To be very blunt, the stock market is chilling out in a major way. Only a few days ago, traders were scared witless.

  On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher for the ninth time in the last ten days. The index is now above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. In fact, we’re not too far from a new all-time high. Everything we lost during the war has been made back.

  I should also note that the recent shift has been strongly tilted towards growth stocks. Over the last 10 days, growth has outgained value eight times. That’s a revealing stat. It suggests that the fear investors had is starting to wane.

  The stock market was helped by President Trump saying that the Iranians want to talk. As Churchill said, it’s better to jaw-jaw than to war-war. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at its highest level since hostilities began. It’s possible that talks may resume before the ceasefire ends.

  Q1 Earnings Season Is Underway

  We’re also starting to get earnings reports for the Q1 earnings season. On Monday, Goldman Sachs (GS) got the ball rolling. The big Wall Street bank said it made $17.55 per share which bested Wall Street’s forecast for $16.49 per share.

  Despite the earnings beat, some of the details were disappointing. For example, income from Goldman’s fixed income, currency and credit products fell by 10%. On the plus side, Goldman’s investment banking fees rose by 48% to $2.84 billion. That was over $300 million more than expected.

  Overall profits were up 19% to $5.63 billion. Shares of Goldman pulled back after the report, but the stock has been a pretty good performer over the last few years.

  BlackRock (BLK), the ETF behemoth, said that its quarterly profits were up 46% over last year. For Q1, BlackRock made $2.2 billion. At the end of March, the company managed $13.89 trillion in assets. That’s actually down a tad since the start of the year.

  For Q1, BlackRock made $12.53 per share which topped estimates of $11.65 per share. The stock rallied 3% on Tuesday.

  Citigroup (C) also had a very impressive Q1. On Tuesday, the big bank said it made $3.06 per share for its Q1. That was above consensus for $2.65 per share. Citi made $1.96 per share for last year’s Q1. Revenue was $24.63 billion which was more than estimates of $23.55 billion.

  The bank has been paring back on its operations in an attempt to make itself leaner. So far, Wall Street appears to approve. Citi has been the best performer of the major banks on Wall Street. Since the beginning of 2024, shares of Citi are up 170%.

  

  Not all the companies that reported on Tuesday were banks. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also reported Q1 results. For the quarter, JNJ’s revenue rose nearly 10% to $24.1 billion. Earnings were $2.70 per share which was four cents above consensus. Like Goldman and JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson is a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

  Johnson and Johnson had a super block-buster drug with Stelara. At one point it was brining over $10 billion in annual sales, but now it’s lost its patent protection and it faces competition. Sales of Stelara fell by 60%. JNJ also raised its full-year revenue estimates by a little bit. Since July, the stock is up over 55%.

  Energy Prices Soared Last Month

  There’s been a lot of debate about Operation Epic Fury and its impact on the economy. For a long time, there’s been a lot of guessing but little in the way of hard evidence. We finally got a clue on Friday when the government released the inflation report for March.

  For March, the CPI increased by 0.9%. Not surprisingly, that was helped by a 10.9% jump in energy prices, and gasoline prices were up by 21.2%. Over the last year, the CPI is up by 3.3%.

  

  If we look past oil, then inflation isn’t so bad. For March, the core rate of inflation rose by just 0.2%. That was 0.1% less than forecast. Over the last year, the core rate is up by just 2.6%.

  Here are some more details:

  Services excluding energy rose 0.2% for the month and were up 3% from a year ago. Similarly, shelter was up 0.3% monthly and 3% annually, tied for its lowest level since August 2021.

  Food prices were unchanged for the month and up 2.7% annually, with food at home falling 0.2%. Meat prices declined 0.6% while eggs fell another 3.4% and have tumbled 44.7% over the past year. New vehicle prices rose just 0.1%.

  There were some signs of tariff and war impacts: airline fares jumped 2.7% while apparel climbed 1%.

  The surge in the CPI meant that real earnings for workers decreased 0.6% for the month, as average hourly earnings rose just 0.2%. For the 12-month period, real average hourly earnings increased 0.3%.

  The Federal Reserve meets again in another two weeks, and once again, I think we can dismiss any plans for a rate cut. In fact, I think it’s very doubtful that the Fed will make any changes to interest rates before the end of the year. According to futures traders, the earliest possible rate cut won’t be for another 14 months. That would bring us close to the middle of next year.

  Wall Street is very concerned about rising energy prices, but it apparently thinks that won’t last. Next month, Kevin Warsh is due to take over as Fed Chair. By the way, we learned today from Mr. Warsh’s financial disclosure forms that he’s worth at least $135 million.

  One concern is that the U.S. economy could find itself in “stagflation.” That’s when the economy weakens but prices rise, which is what we had in the late 1970s.

  The problem with stagflation is that it puts the Fed in a tight spot. The economy needs lower rates in order to grow, but it needs higher rates in order to stave off inflation. In the early 1980s, the Fed raised rates to the ceiling. Interest rates came close to 20%. The economy faced a brutal recession, but it finally cleansed the economy of inflation.

  That’s all for now. This week will mostly be about Q1 earnings and any news of ceasefire talks. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: April 14, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 14th, 2026 at 7:02 am

  China Imposes New Rules to Block Foreign Companies From ‘Decoupling’

  China’s Export Momentum Slows Amid Iran War

  The Hormuz Blockade Is as Much About China as Iran

  Global Trade Customers Ask Container Lines to Keep Digital Transition Moving

  Trump’s Latest Oil Blockade Brings Bigger Economic Risks

  Global Oil Demand Heads for Contraction As Iran War Chokes Flows, IEA Says

  Oil Prices Slip and Stocks Gain as Investors Eye Possible Path to Peace

  What’s Driving the Wartime Stock Rebound

  For Investors Trying to Price Risk, AI Polling Is Long Overdue

  JPMorgan Profit Beats Estimates on Record Trading Haul, Strong Dealmaking

  Wells Fargo Interest Income Misses Estimates, Shares Fall

  The Salary Penalty: Why Trump’s Tax Bill Hits a Banker Harder Than a Plumber

  Crucial Home Selling Season Off to a Sour Start

  An Inflation Time Bomb Is Hiding in Home Insurance

  We Can’t Afford It Anyway

  The Death of the Basic American Car

  What Higher Oil Prices Mean for Nissan, EVs and Auto Demand

  CarMax Swings to Loss After Cutting Prices to Bring Back Shoppers

  Re-Imagining Capitalism or Re-Imagining Journalism?

  Neither Balanced Budgets Nor ‘Starve the Beast’ Will Limit Government

  Artemis Was a State Failure and a Human Triumph

  Utilities Plan to Spend $1.4 Trillion Over Next Five Years to Power AI Boom

  Stanford Report Highlights Growing Disconnect Between AI Insiders and Everyone Else

  Missouri Town Fires Half Its City Council Over Data Center Deal

  Electric Fury: Soaring Power Bills Threaten to Swing US Elections

  United CEO Has Pitched Possible Tie-Up With Rival American

  Amazon to Buy Satellite Operator Globalstar for $90 a Share

  Can Michigan Become the U.S. Drone Capital?

  J&J’s First-Quarter Sales Grow on Cancer-Drug Strength

  Unilever Bets Big on Gummies as Next Frontier in Wellness

  Imperial Brands Shares Fall After Cigarette Maker Warns of Market-Share Loss

  Hollywood Heavyweights Sign Letter Opposing Paramount’s Deal for Warner Bros.

  Social Media Just Isn’t Very Social Anymore

  No Skirts, No Shoes: The Team-Building Exercise Where You Climb on the Boss

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• Morning News: April 13, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 13th, 2026 at 7:06 am

  China’s Electrostate Is Poised to Win From War in the Middle East

  How Iran, Suffering Under Sanctions, Diversified Its Economy

  White House Fields Warnings About Iran War’s Economic Hit

  Oil Rallies as US Vow to Blockade Iran Heightens Supply Risks

  Oil Prices Surge Above $100 After Peace Talks Fail and Trump Threatens Blockade

  The Hormuz Blockade Is a Throwdown the US Can’t Win

  It’s the Worst Time to Be an American Ally

  Hungary’s New Leader Calls for Sweeping Change After Orban

  The World’s Anti-Recession Guardrails Are Weaker Than Ever

  In Economic War, Chokepoints Beat Tariffs

  The Economy Is Growing, Jobs Aren’t. Why That Might Be OK.

  Restaurants Are Finding It Harder Than Ever to Hire Someone to Wash the Dishes

  Why More College Graduates Are Stuck in Jobs That Don’t Require Degrees

  Anxious Parents Are Spending Upwards of $50,000 to Land Their Kid a Job

  Friday’s CPI Report Was a Lot of Noise, Not Much Signal

  With Private Credit We See the Credit Cycle Hasn’t Been Repealed

  Goldman Sachs Posts Higher Profit on Strength in Dealmaking, Equities Trading

  Kalshi Is Half Right About Prediction Markets and Gambling

  The ‘Annoyance Economy’ Is More Than Just Annoying

  The Economist Is Putting Names (and Faces) to Its Magazine

  For a Housing Fix, Look to the Laboratories We Know As States

  Starting With Prices, Let’s Make Healthcare a Market Again

  Mutually Automated Destruction: The Escalating Global A.I. Arms Race

  Musk Finds a Partner in Intel for His Huge Chipmaking Dream

  Philippines Orders Meta to Tighten Measures Against ‘Panic-Inducing’ Fake News

  Meta Expected to Unseat Google as World’s Largest Digital-Ad Player

  Amazon’s Car Sales Bet Is Getting Bigger With New Brands and More Cities

  Palo Alto Networks Founder Agrees to Buy California Bank for AI Revamp

  GFL Environmental to Buy Secure Waste Infrastructure

  Ackman’s $64 Billion Universal Bet Hinges on Power Broker Bollore

  McDonald’s to Add Energy Drinks, Crafted Sodas to Menus

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• Morning News: April 10, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 10th, 2026 at 7:02 am

  Falling Trust in America Is a Pandora’s Box for the Global Economy

  Japan Rules Out Major Domestic Risks from Private Credit for Now

  Middle East War Triggers Higher Prices in China

  Middle East Energy Shock Snaps China’s Deflationary Streak

  Europe Braces for a Spike in Inflation

  Zelenskiy Says Gulf Offers Kyiv Fuel Aid for Anti-Drone Support

  Iran Shows You Don’t Have to Be a Superpower to Wage Economic Warfare

  America Can’t Let Israel Pull It Into a Renewed Iran War

  Iran’s $7.8 Billion Crypto Economy Finds New Way to Grow After Cease-Fire

  The Price US Consumers May Pay for the War With Iran

  A Record Jump in U.S. Gasoline Prices Is Squeezing Consumers

  Consumer Spending, Engine of the U.S. Economy, Is Under Strain

  Pawn Shops Flash Warning Signs About Toll of High US Gas Prices

  The Iran War Has Prompted Some Companies to Raise Prices

  Forever Stamp Prices to Rise 5% This Summer

  Oil Goes Higher and Stocks Rise Ahead of U.S. Inflation Report

  The Fed Cannot Unclog Global Shipping Lanes

  The $39 Trillion Habit That Washington Cannot Quit

  Budgets Used to Be About Fiscal Control. Not Anymore

  How Prediction Markets Turned the World Into a Casino

  Ares Plans Smaller Private Credit Fund After Record Predecessor

  Anthropic Will Rent CoreWeave AI Capacity to Power Claude

  Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Urgent Bessent, Powell Warning to Bank CEOs

  Blanche’s Experience Makes Him More Dangerous Than Bondi

  Trump’s Changes Lock Some Employers Out of H-1B Visa Program

  Florida’s Embrace of ICE Has Come at a Cost

  The Heart of the American Dream Is Opportunity, Not Guarantees

  Surging HOA Fees Are Pushing Homeowners to the Brink

  Is the T.S.A. Ordeal Really Over?

  First-Class Seats Drive Airline Profits. It Wasn’t Always This Way.

  Nuclear Power Takes Another Tiny Step Forward in the US

  When Bill Ackman Vented Over $2 Million, Fellow Billionaires Rushed to Commiserate

  How VC Money and Israel Outrage Derailed a Hot Hollywood Startup

  GoPro Is Cutting Nearly a Quarter of Its Workforce (and AI Isn’t the Reason)

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• Morning News: April 9, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 9th, 2026 at 7:05 am

  Iran War Cease-Fire Can’t Undo the Middle East’s Energy Hangover

  Oil Prices Edge Higher as Confidence in Cease-Fire Wavers

  Chevron Says Iran War Reduced Production, Impacted Earnings

  Iran and Ukraine Make Oil Shocks Look Too Easy

  Irish Protesters Block Dublin With Trucks and Tractors Over Rising Energy Costs

  How ‘Attritable’ Systems Are Changing the Economics of Warfare

  From Merchants of Death to Merchants of Confusion

  Trump Got Schooled by Iran. He’ll Never Learn

  How Iran’s Information War Machine Operates Online

  Extent of Damage to Middle East Energy Facilities Key to Economic Impact, OECD Says

  Dollar Could Rise if Cease-Fire Fails to Hold and U.S. Inflation Jumps

  Markets Have Faced a Year of Chaos and Still Done Awfully Well

  No Matter Your Opinion on Iran, War Is Depression

  Why Reviving the WTO Would Serve US Interests

  Why Fed Rate-Cut Prospects Have Dimmed, With or Without a Cease-Fire

  The Fed Can Only Watch Iran’s Energy Shock — and Wait

  Fed’s Inflation Woes Preceded the War With Iran

  Wall Street Is Whiffing on Its Economic Forecasts

  Earnings Optimism Enhances Stocks’ Allure as Iran Worries Ease

  US Bank Profits to Rise on Deals, but Iran War Fuels Outlook Uncertainty

  How to Rebuild Cuba’s Crumbling Economy

  Ares Management to Buy Whitestone REIT in $1.7 Billion Deal

  This Is Why America Is Short Four Million Homes

  As Legislators Attack Single Family, Multi-Family Residences Shine

  Why the U.S. Fertility Rate Has Hit a Record Low

  RFK Jr. Has Stopped Talking About Vaccines. A Memo Shows Why

  CoreWeave, Meta Strike Another $21 Billion Deal for AI Computing

  Gen Z Is Using A.I., but Doesn’t Feel Great About It

  Samsung to Invest $4 Billion in Chip Packaging Site in Vietnam

  Delta’s Ace in the Hole for Surging Jet Fuel Costs: Its Own Refinery

  Disney Planning Layoffs Under New CEO Josh D’Amaro

  The Dealmaking Gamble Threatening Estée Lauder’s Turnaround

  Can Longtime Car Executive Luca De Meo Kick the House of Gucci Into Gear?

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• Morning News: April 8, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 8th, 2026 at 7:09 am

  Argentines Plunge Into Debt for Bills, Cars and Birthday Parties

  JD Vance’s Hungary Trip Deserves Bipartisan Rebukes

  As Trump Bullies NATO, Europeans Question Its Deferential Chief

  Oil Prices Plunge and Stocks Surge After Cease-Fire Deal

  Trump’s Ceasefire Still Leaves the US and Iran Mired in Quandary

  Trump’s Iran War Leaves the US Looking Weakened to Adversaries

  Our Vacations. Our Food. Our Mortgages. The Iran War Will Change Our Lives.

  Delta Expects Strong Profit Despite Higher Fuel Costs

  Investors Still Have Questions About the Cease-Fire

  Why You Can’t ‘Flick a Switch’ to Get Oil and Gas Flowing Out of the Persian Gulf

  Russia Boosts Oil Income to Highest Since Early in Ukraine War

  Exxon Sees 6% of Its Worldwide Output Shut on Mideast Conflict

  How China Built Its Vast Natural Gas Stockpile

  The Iran War Is Hitting California Harder Than Any Other State

  The US Economy Is Replaying the 2000s, Not the 1970s

  Wall Street Watchdogs Pull Back Amid Trump’s Deregulatory Push

  As It Becomes Wholesale, Banking Is More Essential Than Ever

  White House Economists Say Stablecoin Rewards Won’t Harm Banks

  My Quest to Solve Bitcoin’s Great Mystery

  ‘Definitely a Sham’: As Tariffs Climb, Trade Fraud and Accounting Tricks Proliferate

  Blue Owl Fund Outlook Cut to Negative by Moody’s on Outflows

  Growth-Focused States Move To Rein In Property Taxes

  Altman Is His Own Risk Factor in OpenAI’s Mega-IPO

  The SpaceX IPO Is Elon Musk’s Most Audacious Product Launch Yet

  Tesla’s $44 Billion Swing Is More Than Just a Miss

  US Charging Networks Race to Keep Up as Gas Prices Boost EVs

  Ex-Rio Tinto Boss to List Seabed Mining Firm in $1 Billion Deal

  Hormone Drugs Make $6.3 Billion Comeback After FDA Nixes Safety Warnings

  Social Media Companies Are Looking for a New Name

  How European Winemakers, Importers Absorbed Trump’s Tariff Punch

  Why McCormick’s $65 Billion Deal Might Actually Work Out

  The Economic Divide Behind That McDonald’s CEO Viral Video

  The Sports Broadcasting Act Is Still a Home Run for Consumers

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• CWS Market Review – April 7, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 7th, 2026 at 7:39 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  On Tuesday, the stock market rose for its fifth day in a row. While that rally has been good to see, I tend to be skeptical of any stock market rally that comes in the midst of a larger selloff. Wall Street loves to throw head fakes and phony rallies our way.

  A good sign of a true turnaround is when the S&P 500 crosses above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. We’re still a long way from that happening.

  

  The stock market’s last all-time high was on January 27. Interestingly, the drawdown really didn’t start moving until February 25, but since then, the S&P 500 hasn’t been able to get much momentum against the bears.

  Frankly, Tuesday was a rather blah day for the markets. At one point, shares of Apple were down by 5%. There was talk of engineering delays in its foldable iPhone. Shares of Home Depot, Trade Desk and Kimberly-Clark all made new 52-week lows today.

  There are a few things coming soon that could alter Wall Street’s outlook. The first would be a quick resolution to military operations against Iran. I wouldn’t even try to guess what could happen, or when, but this is a major concern for investors. The price for oil has been rallying again. Oil has recently been as high as $115 per barrel, and it’s not far from its big jump at the start of this conflict.

  Another big event coming our way will be Q1 earnings season. The unofficial kickoff of earnings season comes next Tuesday, April 14. That’s when JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson are due to report. Not long after that, the earnings reports will come in a big flurry.

  The big banks tend to report early in the earnings season. In fact, Goldman Sachs will report on Monday, but it may be the only major bank that will do that.

  The other big event will come at the end of April when the Federal Reserve meets again. It’s very doubtful that the Fed will make any move on interest rates, but we may learn more what the Fed has planned for later this year.

  At the moment, Wall Street seems unconvinced that the Fed will do much of anything over the next several months. In fact, traders don’t expect any move—up or down—from the Fed over the next 12 months.

  Dissecting Nike’s Fall

  In today’s issue. I want to take a closer look at Nike (NKE). The former all-star is stuck in the mud, and it can’t seem to do anything right.

  As investors, we want to look at any lessons we can draw from Nike. It’s a good reminder that in a free enterprise system, no company is safe. Time and chance happeneth to us all.

  Here’s a weekly chart of the last five years:

  

  Last week, shares of Nike got taken to the woodshed. In one day, the sneaker company lost over 15% of its value, and it’s continued to slide from there. Nike had been falling going into last week’s big drop. In fact, Nike has been sliding for a few years.

  As investors, it’s important for us to examine why and how good companies can go off the rails.

  Since Nike’s all-time high in November 2021, the stock has fallen more than 75%. Remember that on Wall Street, one 75% drop is effectively two back-to-back 50% drops. This is a massive reversal of fortune. In the 37 years prior to Nike’s peak, the stock gained 18,000%, and that’s before dividends.

  What went wrong? The short answer is—everything. The stock is back to where it was 12 years ago. Nike now has a market value of about $62 billion which makes it the smallest member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For some perspective, Nvidia is about 70 times more valuable than Nike.

  It’s as if they looked at the competitive landscape and then decided to do everything wrong. There are a lot of lessons to be learned here.

  Nike held an all-hands meeting this week. CEO Elliott Hill, who was called out of retirement to lead the sneaker outfit, said, “I’m so tired, and I know you are too, of talking about fixing this business.”

  Nike beat earnings, but the details were not good. For the quarter, Nike made 35 cents per share on revenue of $11.28 billion. Wall Street had been expecting 28 cents per share, Still, there are many problems for Nike. For example, Nike’s margins continue to shrink, and sales in China fell by 7%.

  Sales are basically flat in North America even though earnings are getting smaller. Nike said that sales will fall between 2% and 4% this quarter, and sales in China are expected to be down by 20% for the year.

  Flat sales and lower margins mean they’re slashing prices just to tread water. That’s the thing about business: there’s no easy way out of a lousy product.

  Here’s a chart that says a lot. This is NKE’s percentage gain over the last 40 years:

  

  What’s particularly frustrating is that Nike has already been in turnaround mode, but it’s simply not showing results. The company said it needs more time, but at some point, they need to rethink their strategy. Shareholders have been very patient, and now they’re not. The benefit of telling shareholders that you’re in a turnaround strategy is that it grants you leeway to make major changes, but Nike hasn’t done that.

  The company, especially previous management, made several missteps. For example, Nike placed too much emphasis on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales. This came at the expense of their partners for wholesale business (think department stores).

  This move completely backfired. This strategy alienated retailers, who then gave more shelf space to Nike’s competitors. The wholesale numbers have gotten a little better, but that took a lot of discounting, and that comes at the expense of margins.

  Nike also tended to rest on its laurels. They assumed their old best-sellers would carry the load. With footwear, you have to be fresh. That means sports and athletes. Once your shoe becomes uncool, your competitors will eat you alive.

  Nike’s other big problem is China. Nike had done well in China, but domestic competition and a bloated inventory of older shoes drove China’s business down. Sales in China are expected to be down by 20% this year.

  Then there are tariffs. Oh boy, this a tough one. Nike’s shoes are made in the developing regions of Asia, particularly China and Vietnam. New U.S. tariffs are expected to add over $1 billion in costs. That will hit gross margins. Nike is working to diversify its supplies, but that will take time.

  There are some reasons for (limited) optimism. Wholesale is looking a little better. Margins could stabilize soon. The brand is still strong, and it’s known all over the world. Of course, the stock price is low. Or it’s lower than where it was.

  In FY 2024, Nike made close to $4 per share. This year, they’ll probably make $1.50 per share. Next year, maybe $1.85 per share. Is that worth $42 per share? Not to me. I won’t even consider Nike until the company has shown evidence that business has improved.

  That’s all for now. The GDP report will be this Thursday, and the CPI report will be on Friday. Stay tuned! I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy