Archive for June, 2026

• CWS Market Review – June 2, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 2nd, 2026 at 6:10 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Last October, 60 Minutes interviewed Andrew Ross Sorkin about his book on the 1929 stock market crash. As I expected, the segment came with dire warnings concerning parallels between the market of 1929 and the market of today.

  

  Please. This market is barely recognizable to the market of 1929. It’s a lazy argument that describes any rally as a potential new Great Depression.

  This is what I wrote at the time:

  I hate that this even needs to be said, but the current market isn’t anything like the market of 1929. Just as a reminder, the stock market fell 89% from top to bottom. That’s what we’re talking about when we compared us to 1929.

  Many more Americans are invested in the stock market than was the case 100 years ago. There’s no gold standard today. No fixed commissions. There’s a global economy. We have deposit insurance. During the Great Depression, the unemployment rate reached 25%. Today it’s just over 4%.

  Bear markets happen. We even had a brief one earlier this year. That’s part of investing. That’s quite a different thing from 1929.

  During the Great Depression, 9,000 U.S. banks went insolvent. Last year, there were two.

  As it turns out, people love to be scared. Despite these serious-sounding warnings, the market stubbornly refuses to crash. In fact, it’s only marched higher. The Nasdaq Composite is up more than 22% since 60 Minutes aired its segment. For good measure, CBS ran it again this past Sunday.

  Of course, for the super bears, any contrasting evidence is further proof of the bubble. The stock market is indeed volatile, and that’s exactly why we’re focused on the long term.

  Today, the S&P 500 closed higher for the ninth day in a row. We also had a nine-day winning streak last year. The index has closed higher for the last nine weeks in a row. This week may very well be #10.

  For the last few months, utility stocks have badly lagged the overall market. Watching the relative performance of utilities is often a good “tell” for the market’s overall mood.

  The S&P 500 is in black and the Utilities are in blue.

  

  For now, the market apparently has little need for safe and dependable stocks like utilities. Instead, Wall Street is madly embracing higher risk stocks. For example, Micron (MU) hit a new high today. Over the last year, the stock is up 10-fold.

  Investors should certainly be more cautious in this market. The economy continues to grow but there are growing signs of concern, not of a depression, but of slower growth. Let’s take a closer look at the low-hire, low-fire economy.

  The Low-Hire, Low-Fire Economy

  This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its jobs openings report, better known as the JOLTS report.

  The BLS said that available employment hit 7.62 million in April. That’s a jump of 731,000. Economists had been expecting 6.8 million. It’s also the highest since May 2024.

  CNBC reported:

  The jump in openings put the available jobs above the total of unemployed workers. The rate of openings compared with the size of the labor force rose 0.4 percentage point to 4.6%.

  By industry, nearly all of the openings came from the professional and business services category, which added 668,000 positions, a possible indicator of the impact from artificial intelligence on labor demand. Health care and social assistance, the greatest engine of job creation, added 89,000. Financial activities saw a decline of 134,000. Most other categories reported little change.

  One concerning stat is that the report said that hiring dropped. During April, employers hired 5.12 million new workers. That’s a drop of 419,000. Layoffs fell a bit as did quits. The quits number is often a good proxy for worker confidence. You’re more likely to leave your current job if you think you can easily get another one.

  The low-hire, low-fire economy is still in play. The labor market has been like this for more than a year. This Friday, we’ll get the May jobs report. I’m expecting much of the same.

  In fact, the jobless rate has barely moved. Over the last 10 months, the monthly unemployment rate has been 4.3% five times, 4.4% three times, and once it was 4.5%; plus, we never got the October report thanks to the government shutdown.

  The conflict with Iran has yet to hurt the overall economy. On Monday, we got the ISM Manufacturing Index for May, and it was a good report. Last month, the index rose 1.3 points to 54.0. That’s a four-year high.

  Any number over 50 means that the manufacturing sector of the economy is expanding. Manufacturing now makes up about 10% of the economy. The improved numbers probably reflect companies’ front-loading of orders as they try to navigate supply line issues during the war with Iran.

  By the way, don’t listen to people who say that the United States doesn’t make anything anymore. In reality, the U.S. is a manufacturing powerhouse. The difference is that a lot fewer workers do it. Manufacturing has grown for the last five months in a row.

  Some of the numbers may not tell the complete story since there’s been a massive increase in AI investments. If we exclude that, then the economy may be weaker than it appears.

  For Friday, Wall Street expects to see 80,000 net new jobs and for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3%.

  Q1 GDP Growth was Revised Lower

  On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis lowered the government’s estimate for Q1 GDP growth. The initial report said that the economy grew by 2% during the first three months of this year. Now that’s been taken down to 1.6%.

  These are in annualized inflation-adjusted numbers. The economy grew at a 0.5% rate for Q4. We’ll get our first look at Q2 GDP in late July. The reports are revised twice after the initial report, although the GDP numbers are frequently revised again many years after the initial report.

  The Q1 numbers were helped by large tax refunds. Also, business spending in equipment rose by 17%. Profits from current production fell to $40 billion. That’s down from nearly $250 billion for Q4. Gross Domestic Income rose by 1.5% in Q4.

  Along with the GDP report, we got the report on personal income and spending. This includes the PCE price index which is important because it’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

  In April, PCE prices rose by 1.5%. Over the last year, PCE prices are up by 3.8%. That’s the highest in three years. If we exclude food and energy, then PCE inflation was up 0.2% last month, and 3.3% for the last 12 months.

  Before I go, I wanted to mention the very good earnings report we had from Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) yesterday. I’ll have more details in our paid issue later this week.

  

  SAIC said it made $3.23 per share for its fiscal Q1 compared with Wall Street’s forecast for $2.28 per share. That’s a beat of 41%.

  CEO Jim Reagan said, “These results reflect our focus on execution and our commitment to our financial targets. We are raising our guidance to reflect this strong start, while continuing to invest for the future.”

  SAIC raised its full-year earnings range from $9.50 to $9.70 per share, to $9.90 to $10.10 per share.

  At one point in yesterday’s trading, the stock was up more than 18%. It later settled lower for a gain of 10%. We have a 13% gain this year with SAIC. I’ll have full details in our paid newsletter, which you can sign up for here.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: June 2, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 2nd, 2026 at 7:04 am

  Why Putin and Trump Should Both Want Quick Peace Deals

  Trump Targets Brazil With 25% Tariff, Citing Unfair Trade Practices

  What Ireland and Germany Can Teach Us About Birthright Citizenship

  Trump Administration Signals ‘Anti-Weaponization’ Fund About-Face

  Fed Warned on Shrinking Balance Sheet in Lookback at Powell Era

  Trump Premium Supercharges Bond Rallies Across Emerging Markets

  Wall Street Analysts Turn Skeptical After Two-Month Stocks Rally

  Citadel Set to Pay for Trading Ideas From Other Hedge Funds

  Creating Abundant Market Information In a Risk-Free Way

  There’s No Real Ownership of Fractional Equity Shares

  A Great Fiscal Inheritance for Gen Z, and An Even Bigger Opportunity

  America’s New Financial Middle: Not in Crisis, Not Thriving Either

  Berkshire, Under New CEO Greg Abel, Invests $16.8 Billion in Two Days

  Berkshire Is Convinced the American Dream of Homeownership Will Stay Alive

  Cash Back for Replacing a Gas Stove With Electric? Not Anymore.

  America’s Consumer Corporate Protector

  Silicon Valley’s $140 Billion Tax Break Is Going Mainstream

  How Much AI Is Too Much for Stock Investors?

  Startup Impulse Space Raises $500 Million, Valued at $4 Billion

  This 83-Year-Old Investor Is Elon Musk’s Biggest Fanboy

  Biggest US Nuclear Fuel Enricher Is Scaling Up in Bet on AI Boom

  The White House’s Missing AI Rule Book Is a Growing Liability

  Bernie Sanders: A.I. Is a Public Resource. You Should Own Half of It.

  Anthropic Faces AI Spending Backlash Before IPO

  Alphabet to Raise $80 Billion in Equity for AI Spending

  John Delaney’s Forbright Targets $994 Million Valuation in US IPO

  What Trump Delivered for Amazon

  Will Volkswagen’s Massive ‘Made for China’ Bet Pay Off?

  FedEx Freight CEO Says Self-Driving Trucks Are Ready for Prime Time

  Genco Board Unanimously Rejects Diana Shipping’s Latest Buyout Offer

  Dollar General Posts Higher Profit, Sales

  Swiss Watch Exports Tumbled in April as U.S. Tariff Volatility Persists

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• Morning News: June 1, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 1st, 2026 at 7:03 am

  Oil Prices Jump as U.S. and Iran Exchange Fire

  An LNG Glut Is On Its Way

  Turnberry Won’t Fix Transatlantic Trade. But It’s a Start

  Colombian Bonds Surge as Right-Wing Outsider Moves Into Runoff

  Bond Trader Bets on Fed Hike Poised for Gut Check From Jobs Data

  Wanted: A Reasonable Stablecoin Referee

  Former Fed Chair Powell Delivers a Pointed Warning, Wrapped in Abstraction

  Powell Says Fed Credibility Lost If President Can Fire Officials

  Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Think About Inflation Differently

  The Labor Market Is Evolving Faster Than the Four-Year Degree

  Farmer Frustrations With Trump Spell Trouble for Iowa Republicans

  A $5.5 Million Airport Rebrand the Trumps May Profit From

  Billionaire Behind Japan’s Tiny-Room Hotel Empire Bets on US

  A Chinese-Owned British Car Legend Pitches a Complicated U.S. Comeback

  UAW to Strike at Key General Motors Truck Supplier Plant

  This $50,000 Safety Fix Is Dividing the Aviation Industry and Washington

  How to Stop the Affluent From Rigging the Housing Market

  Berkshire Hathaway to Buy Taylor Morrison for $6.8 Billion

  Warren Buffett’s Shareholder Letters Make a Surprisingly Great Book

  Retail Investors Are Getting Into This Year’s Hottest IPOs

  SpaceX’s IPO Forces Wall Street to Reorganize Around It

  SpaceX Needs to Get to $5 Quadrillion to Rival Mag Seven Magic

  Guess Who’s Got an AI Edge in a Tough Job Market?

  AI Is Forcing Big Law to Rethink Business as Usual

  Chinese Military Sought Nvidia Chips for Years, Report Says

  Nvidia Enters Windows Laptop Market, Taking On Intel and AMD

  Valve, the Anticorporate Hero of the Games Industry, Has Its Antitrust Moment

  Valve’s Hard-Line Tactics Clash With Founder’s Reputation as Benevolent Gamer

  Prized by ‘MAHA’ Influencers and Chefs Alike, Craft Flour Is on the Rise

  Whey Protein Is Running Out as Food Companies Put It in Everything

  Diller Plans a Takeover Bid for MGM Resorts

  The Quintessential Old-School Las Vegas Buffet Bids Farewell

  Can the World Cup Help the U.S. Beer Industry Kick Its Slump?

  Golf Is Now Cooler and Younger. The Stock Market Has Noticed.

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