Author Archive
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Morning News: January 7, 2026
Eddy Elfenbein, January 7th, 2026 at 7:09 amEurozone Inflation Falls to ECB Target
German Unemployment Holds Steady
China Sells the World on Its Duty-Free Island, Amid a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus
China Escalates Feud With Japan, Probes Chipmaking Material
Here’s How Japan Can Hit Back at China’s New Export Controls
The World Needs a Lot More Copper. But Will There Be Enough Supply?
LNG Market Moves From Famine to Feast on Wave of New Supply
Trump Says Venezuela to Send Oil Worth Up to $2.8 Billion to US
With Maduro Out, Wall Street Chases After Venezuela’s Riches
No Crash, No Problem? Good Luck With That
Tests of Fed’s Independence Intensify as Trump Seeks to Reshape Institution
Steve Moore and Larry Kudlow Owe Trump Straight Talk On the Dollar
Why Bonds Now Look Like a Better Bet Over Stocks and Gold
US Bank Profits Surge On Investment Banking Jump In Fourth Quarter
Goldman Sachs Tops Global M&A Rankings with $1.48 Trillion in Deals
JPMorgan Cuts All Ties With Proxy Advisers in Industry First
US Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.25%, Lowest Since September 2024
Slashing Foreign Aid Risks Millions of Lives
Vaccine Changes Will Make American Children Suffer Again
Hiring in the Age of AI Means Proving You Need a Human
Samsung Rises to New Highs With No End in Sight for Memory Crunch
Mobileye Acquires Startup Mentee Robotics for $900 Million
The $160,000 Mechanic Job That Ford Can’t Fill
Warner Bros. Dismisses Latest Paramount Bid as Inadequate
Media Startup Semafor Raises $30 Million in New Funding Round
SpaceX Is Under a Lot of Pressure Now. It’s Not Alone
Musk’s Grok AI Generated Thousands of Undressed Images Per Hour on X
Hilton, ICE and the New Playbook for Handling an Online Crisis
Why Every Decent Restaurant Has a Product in the Grocery Store Now
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CWS Market Review – January 6, 2026
Eddy Elfenbein, January 6th, 2026 at 6:16 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
I always look forward to the start of the new trading year. It’s a fresh start and all the YTD performance numbers are set back to zero. It’s a time to leave behind last year’s mistakes and look ahead to profits in the new year.
So far, the stock market seems to be in a very happy mood in 2026. The S&P 500 rallied on the first three trading days of the new year, and today the index set a new all-time record closing high of 6,945.82. Before today, the last closing high was set on Christmas Eve.
Not only did the market rally on the first three days of this year, but our Buy List outperformed the market on all three days as well.
The events in Venezuela haven’t been enough to rattle the markets. Indeed, one of our buy List stocks, SAIC, the defense contractor, got a nice lift on the news. It’s already up 8% for us this year. We also had new highs today from stocks like Heico and Thermo Fisher.
Historically, this has been a good time of year for the stock market. From December 20 to February 18, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 3.6%. That’s close to one-third of the market’s annual gain coming in less than one-sixth the time.
Another of our new stocks on the Buy List, Comfort Systems USA, is already up 10.8% this year. Not bad for three days, but we know not to celebrate too soon. The market can and will change its mind very quickly.
The market news has been fairly quiet recently, but that will soon change. Now that the government shutdown is over, we can get back to regular economic reports. This Friday, the government will release its jobs report for December, although the last few labor reports were not very encouraging.
The simple fact is that the labor market has been slowing down. The unemployment rate is currently at a four-year high, even though it’s still at a historically low level. The unemployment rate reached its low point nearly three years ago.
Earlier today, we got the ISM Manufacturing Index for December, and it showed that U.S. manufacturing fell to a 14-month low. The Index fell to 47.9 for December. That’s the lowest level since October 2024. Manufacturing now makes up 10% of the U.S. economy.
The other big news headed our way will be the start of the Q4 earnings season. As usual, many of the big banks will go first. JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of New York Mellon are set to report on Tuesday, January 13. JPM often sets the tone for the entire banking sector.
By the way, JPM’s CEO Jamie Dimon made a cool $770 million last year. That works out to 28 cents per share on a $330 stock. I’m not smart enough to tell you if that’s too high or too low, but the stock gained 34% last year. JPM’s annual profit will probably come in around $20 per share.
On Wednesday, we’ll get earnings reports from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. The financial sector has been unusually strong lately, and I say that cautiously. Except for a few bursts, finance stocks haven’t been popular in several years. Since late October, the S&P 500 Financial ETF is up by more than 8% while the S&P 500 ETF is up less than 1%.
Our first batch of Buy List earnings reports probably won’t be until the third week of January. Companies often need a little more time to compile their Q4 reports. That’s why the Q4 earnings season tends to be more spread out compared with the other quarters.
Tomorrow, we’ll get an early look at the jobs report when ADP releases its private payrolls report. Wall Street expects a gain of 48,000. Also on Wednesday, we’ll get reports on job openings and factory orders. Job openings have fallen over the last three years, but the losses may have stabilized. We’ll know more soon.
On Thursday, we’ll get initial jobless claims plus reports on productivity and the trade deficit. The big jobs report is on Friday. Wall Street expects to see a gain of 73,000 jobs which is pretty good. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1% to 4.5%.
I’m also paying close attention to average hourly earnings. Economists are looking for a gain of 0.3%. If that’s close to accurate, then it tells me that the government shutdown didn’t have the impact I feared it would have.
Inflation has also been calm. The next CPI report will be out on January 13. The January Federal Reserve meeting is still three weeks away, and it increasingly looks like the Fed is ready to hold off on lowering rates. Not only that, but the odds of a rate cut in March are looking iffy.
I want to share this chart with you because it might be the most frustrating chart about the recent market. The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF (in black) against the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (in blue).
You can see that the overall market has soundly beaten the Dividend Aristocrats over the last three years. The market has more than tripled the Aristocrats. Actually, this chart understates the impact because the Dividend Aristocrats are inside the S&P 500.
The Dividend Aristocrats are companies that have raised their dividend every year for the last 25 years. Many have raised their dividend every year for 40 or 50 years.
I think of the Dividend Aristocrats as a good proxy for high quality companies. When I use the words “blue chip stocks,” this is what I mean. Many index makers have a “quality” factor for their indexes but I’m never exactly sure what metrics they use. With the Dividend Aristocrats, I have a good idea.
I find it alarming that high quality stocks have lagged the market by so much over the last three years. I certainly expect periods of underperformance, but this long stretch is very unusual.
This chart also shows us just how much the market has been influenced by a small number of lower quality stocks. The sad fact is that being safe and prudent has not been the most profitable strategy.
It’s not that conservative investors have lost money, but they’ve been left out of the biggest gains in a thriving bull market. I’m concerned that investors make take away the wrong lesson, but it’s hard to argue with success.
I’m not about to predict a resurgence of high-quality stocks, but these stocks can only lag the market for so long.
That’s all for now. The jobs report is due out Friday morning. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: January 6, 2026
Eddy Elfenbein, January 6th, 2026 at 7:04 amChina Slaps Export Controls on Japan Military for Taiwan Remarks
In China, a Debate About Political Power Ignites After Maduro’s Capture
Snatching Maduro From Venezuela Was Illegal — and Damaging
Venezuela Ushers in the Era of Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’
Trump’s Hint to Oil Executives Weeks Before Maduro Ouster: ‘Get Ready’
Mystery Trader Garners $400,000-Plus Windfall on Maduro’s Capture
Bets on Maduro, Jesus Reveal Promise and Risks of Prediction Markets
Venezuela’s New Leader Is the Oil Industry’s Long-Time Ally
Chevron’s Risky Bet to Stay in Venezuela May Now Give It an Advantage
Citgo Is a Crown Jewel of Venezuela’s Oil Industry. Elliott Is Set to Reap the Benefits.
Trump’s Venezuelan Gambit Holds Chance of Rising US Sway Over Crude
Copper Surges to Fresh Record as Inventories ‘Locked in the US’
Hilton Lands in DHS Crosshairs After ICE Agents’ Hotel Reservations Are Canceled
The GOP Is Kidding Itself About the Economy
Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? New Studies Offer Surprising Answer
Sweeping Minimum-Wage Hikes Take Hold Across the Country
The Fed’s Six Big Challenges in 2026
The Cost of Inaction On Crypto Market Structure
More Tax Revenue Is a Certain Path to Soaring National Debt
Corporation for Public Broadcasting Votes to Shut Down
Optimism About Nuclear Energy Is Rising Again. Will It Last?
Nvidia’s $4 Trillion Stock Rally Faces More Threats Than Ever
Nvidia Details New A.I. Chips and Autonomous Car Project With Mercedes
Tesla Is Swapping Its EV Crown For Even More Promises
Hyundai Unveils New Humanoid Robot for Work in Car Factories
Dell’s Underperforming PC Business Seeks a Comeback
Steel Dynamics, SGH Bid $8.8 Billion to Acquire BlueScope Steel
AB InBev Buys Back $3 Billion Stake in U.S. Metal Container Facility to Boost Supply Security
How Corporate Security Has Changed a Year After UnitedHealth Killing
Make Drug Prices Great Again Without Price Controls
Victoria’s Secret Faces Valentine’s Day Test
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Morning News: January 5, 2026
Eddy Elfenbein, January 5th, 2026 at 7:06 amTrump’s Ouster of Maduro Shows America’s New World Order Is Here
Switzerland Freezes Assets of Maduro and People Close to Him
Trump Now Has His Very Own Oil Empire
Chevron, US Oil Stocks Rally as Trump Vows Venezuela Revival
Trump’s Venezuela Oil Revival Plan Is a $100 Billion Gamble
Reviving Venezuela’s Flow of Oil Will Not Come Easily or Cheaply
Not Your Father’s Oil Market: Geopolitical Shocks Lack Impact
Why Oil Prices Are Barely Moving After the Venezuelan Incursion
China Needed Oil. Venezuela Needed Cash. Their Deal Faces a Turning Point.
Xi Faces Higher Costs in Taiwan Than Trump Does in Venezuela
Venezuela Trade Disruptions to Stay Localized, Analysts Say
Why Markets Can Sit Out the Drama in Venezuela
Safe-Haven Gold Propelled to One-Week High by US-Venezuela Conflict
Yellen Warns of Growing ‘Fiscal Dominance’ Threat to US Economy
Calls to Weaken the Dollar Are the Stuff of Economic Ignorance
Slow Growth Since 1971? The Floating Dollar Just Begs For Attention
Small-Time Crypto Investors Are Facing Violent Attacks
Treasuries Advance Ahead of Key US Manufacturing Numbers
Dimon’s $770 Million Windfall Shows How Banking Is Great Again
Supreme Court Increasingly Favors the Rich, Economists Say
The Winners and Losers From 2026’s Mix of Tax and Benefit Cuts
Contemplating the Difficult Labor-Market Conditions for U.S.-Born Men
‘Hectocorns’ Are Just One AI Flashpoint for 2026
Ten Unexpected Things 2026 May Bring
Simulation or Not, Musk’s Surreal Year Could Push Him to $1 Trillion Heights
US Auto Sales Poised to Slip as Middle-Class Buyers Retreat
27 Million Fewer Car Trips: Life After a Year of Congestion Pricing
Zillow’s CEO Is Ready for Another Slow Year in the US Housing Market
Apollo Leads $1.2 Billion Investment in Brad Jacobs’ QXO
Saks in Talks for $1 Billion Bankruptcy Loan to Keep Doors Open
First GLP-1 pill for Obesity from Novo Nordisk Launches in the U.S.
America Is Falling Out of Love With Pizza
Dutch Bros Is Out-Starbucksing Rivals With the Sugariest Drinks
More People Are Lifting Weights. It’s Changing Gym Culture.
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Morning News: January 2, 2026
Eddy Elfenbein, January 2nd, 2026 at 8:15 amThe 14 Global Trends That Will Shape the Climate in 2026
Orsted Files Legal Challenge to Trump’s Wind-Farm Suspension
Trump’s Lasting Damage Will Be the Steady Erosion of Norms
Work, Invest, Inherit: How Americans Can Actually Move to Europe
Britain’s FTSE 100 Hits 10,000 Mark in Strong Start to 2026
The Global Economy Must Adapt to Avoid Tumult This Year
Economists Whiffed Tariffs Precisely Because They Whiffed Inflation
US Treasuries Extend Gains After Posting Best Year Since 2020
Can Kalshi Take On Inflation, Too?
Wall Street Sees Another Banner Year for Markets. Could Anything Stop It?
Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2026
China’s Multi-Asset Funds Dominate Top Performers as Tech Soars
3 Ultra-High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in 2026
Rationally Exuberant Markets Will Be Risking AI Mishaps in 2026
Tech Companies Land at Las Vegas Eager to Show AI Transformation
Tech Giants Are Racing to Embed A.I. in Schools Around the Globe
Kara Swisher on the Blind Spot That Broke Big Tech
Bezos, Catz, Dell Cashed Out Billions as Top Insider Sellers of 2025
Threat of California Billionaire Tax Draws Criticism From Ultrawealthy
The Condo Market Hasn’t Been This Bad in Over a Decade
The Year of the $100 Million House
BYD Hits Sales Goal, Set to Topple Tesla as Biggest EV Maker
Tesla Closes Out Brutal Year in Europe With Sales Declines
The Year the Newsletter Business Reached a Fever Pitch
List of Companies Laying Off Employees in January
Ozempic Users Actually Spend More Dining Out. Smart Restaurants Are Adapting
How Kraft Heinz Lost Its Lock on Mac and Cheese—and American Shoppers
The World Cup Is Nike’s to Lose Versus Adidas
Can the Most Indebted Team in Global Soccer Fix Its Finances?
Repeat Moviegoers Help Hollywood Eke Out a Slightly Better 2025
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Morning News: January 1, 2026
Eddy Elfenbein, January 1st, 2026 at 7:08 amSouth Korea’s Exports Stronger Than Expected in December; Set Annual Record in 2025
China Calls EU Carbon Border Tax Unfair, Warns of Counter-Moves
How Japanese Scallops Became a Pawn in Diplomatic Tensions With China
US Sanctions Chinese Companies, Tankers With Venezuela Links
Trump Delays New Tariff Hike on Furniture, Kitchen Cabinets
Trump Abandons National Guard Push in Chicago, LA, Portland
The Year America’s Economic Edge Evaporated
There Is a Way Out of This Mess
Dollar Posts Worst Year Since 2017 With More Fed Cuts Expected
US Stocks Slouch Into Year End With No Sign of Santa Claus Rally
Crypto Soared in 2025 — and then Crashed. Now What?
Year End Sees Record Borrowing from Fed’s Standing Repo Facility
Bridgewater’s Flagship Pure Alpha Surges 33% in 2025, Outperforming Biggest Hedge Fund Peers
These Are the ETFs to Watch in 2026
Warren Buffett Officially Retires as Berkshire Hathway’s CEO
The $358 Billion Question for the New CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
Clairvoyance Is Great for Hedge Fund Returns
Mortgage Rates at 2025 Low Give Homebuyers Momentum in New Year
Technology Can Help Us Lead More Moral Lives — If We Let It
The US-EU Rift Over Social Media Rules Will Only Get Wider in 2026
Tesla Sales Outlook Darkens Despite Musk’s Self-Driving Euphoria
The Price Honeybees May Pay for Biofuel
Think 2025 Was a Big Year for Health News? Fasten Your Seat Belts
Hasbro’s Secret Weapon for Training Its Next Leaders: A Board Game
You Can Now Hire Someone to Return All Those Unwanted Gifts
Repeat Moviegoers Help Hollywood Eke Out a Slightly Better 2025
The ‘Stranger Things’ Finale Is the Escapism We Need
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The 2025 Buy List
Eddy Elfenbein, December 31st, 2025 at 10:14 pmHappy New Year!
The 2025 investing year is on the books!
This was another good year for Wall Street. The market shook off some trade-related jitters from this April to put in another solid performance. We even made several new all-time highs. Once again, the expected recession never arrived. After a long pause, the Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates again.
I’m pleased to say that the 2025 Buy List performed well, although we didn’t do as well as the overall market. Much of this can be explained by our conservative approach. In 2025, safe and secure stocks were not the most sought after on Wall Street.
For the year, the S&P 500 gained 16.39%, and with dividends, it was up 17.88%. Our Buy List was up 6.54% for the year, and with dividends, the gain was 7.53%. Most of our underperformance came when the market sharply turned around in April, May and June.
In 2025, the Buy List had a “beta” of 0.7105. That’s unusually low for us. I think this shows us how much risk the rest of the market was absorbing.
For the 20 years of the Buy List, the S&P 500 with dividends is up 706.20%, while our Buy List is up 713.84%.
Here’s a look at our Buy List versus the S&P 500 throughout the year (this doesn’t include dividends).
I always strive to be as transparent as possible when discussing our track record. Here’s a breakdown of how our Buy List performed in 2025. For tracking purposes, I assume the Buy List is a $1 million portfolio and that all 25 stocks are equally weighted at the start of the year.
Amphenol was our biggest winner on the year, with a gain of more than 94%. IES Holdings also did very well, with a gain of over 93%. Cencora gained 50% for us. Fiserv was our biggest loser, with a loss of 67%. FactSet and Miller Industries also had a tough year. Interestingly, in 2024, both Fiserv and Miller gained 54%.
FICO had a very dramatic year in 2025. At one point in May, it lost nearly one-third of its value in one week. Later, the stock popped more than 40% off its August low in just a few weeks.
Note that during the year, Fiserv changed its symbol from FI to FISV.
Here’s the data behind the dividend-adjusted returns. I’ve listed each stock’s beginning price, ending price and dividend-adjusted starting price.
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The 2026 Buy List
Eddy Elfenbein, December 31st, 2025 at 5:51 pmHere are the 25 stocks for the 2026 Buy List. The list is locked and sealed, and I can’t make any changes for 12 months.
For tracking purposes, I assume the Buy List is a $1 million portfolio that’s equally divided among 25 stocks. Below are all 25 positions with the number of shares for each and the closing price for 2025. Whenever I discuss how the Buy List is doing, the list below is what I’m referring to.
Here are the five new buys with their starting Buy Below prices:
Casey’s General Stores ($600)
Comfort Systems USA ($1,000)
McKesson ($900)
ResMed ($270)
Sprouts Farmers Market ($90)The five sells are:
Fiserv
McGrath RentCorp
Miller Industries
Otis Worldwide
SilganHere are the corporate descriptions of our five new stocks:
Casey’s is a Fortune 500 company operating approximately 2,900 convenience stores. Founded more than 50 years ago, the company has grown to become the third-largest convenience store retailer and the fifth-largest pizza chain in the United States. Casey’s provides freshly prepared foods, quality foods and friendly service at its locations. Guests can enjoy pizza, donuts, other assorted bakery items, and a wide selection of beverages and snacks.
Comfort Systems USA is a premier provider of business solutions addressing workplace comfort, with 184 locations in 139 cities around the nation.
McKesson Corporation is a diversified healthcare services leader dedicated to advancing health outcomes for patients everywhere. Our teams partner with biopharma companies, care providers, pharmacies, manufacturers, governments, and others to deliver insights, products and services to help make quality care more accessible and affordable.
Resmed creates life-changing health technologies that people love. We’re relentlessly committed to pioneering innovative technology to empower millions of people in 140 countries to live happier, healthier lives. Our AI-powered digital health solutions, cloud-connected devices and intelligent software make home healthcare more personalized, accessible and effective. Ultimately, Resmed envisions a world where every person can achieve their full potential through better sleep and breathing, with care delivered in their own home.
True to its farm-stand heritage, Sprouts offers a unique grocery experience featuring an open layout with fresh produce at the heart of the store. Sprouts inspires wellness naturally with a carefully curated assortment of better-for-you products paired with purpose-driven people. The healthy grocer continues to bring the latest in wholesome, innovative products made with lifestyle-friendly ingredients such as organic, plant-based and gluten-free. Headquartered in Phoenix, and one of the largest and fastest growing specialty retailers of fresh, natural and organic food in the United States, Sprouts employs approximately 35,000 team members and operates more than 450 stores in 24 states nationwide.
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Every Buy List Stock
Eddy Elfenbein, December 31st, 2025 at 9:22 amHere are all 117 Buy List stocks and when they made the cut.
Eddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His