Author Archive

  • Dow 13000
    , April 25th, 2007 at 4:01 pm

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    Wow, what a day!
    The Dow (^DJI) shot up 135.95 points to break 13000. This comes just 127 trading days after breaking 12000. The index closed today’s trading at 13089.89.
    The bull keeps on charging. I’m too modest to mention that I defended the bull six months ago and again two months ago, so I’ll just play it cool.
    The Dow isn’t the only one partying. The S&P 500 is at 1495.42, only inches away from 1,500 — a number it hasn’t seen in over six years. The Nasdaq is at 2547.89 and is closing in on 2,584 which is a Fibonacci number. I have know idea what it means, but you can use this as a conversation starter.
    What pushed us over the top today is what’s been driving us all along, energy. The S&P Energy Index (^DJUSEN) was up 2.07%. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) shot up 1.28% to close at 1,010.56, its first ever close over 1,000.
    Here’s my estimate of how many Dow points each stock has added since October 19 when the Dow broke 12000:
    Honeywell………………………100.85
    Boeing…………………………….99.80
    Altria……………………………….99.06
    IBM…………………………………94.27
    Exxon……………………………..82.81
    Alcoa………………………………66.88
    Merck……………………………..64.20
    McDonalds……………………….63.88
    Coke……………………………….55.51
    JP Morgan Chase………………48.35
    AT&T……………………………….43.80
    DuPont……………………………40.39
    Amex………………………………35.35
    Caterpillar………………………..34.21
    Citi………………………………….31.94
    Disney……………………………..30.31
    Home Depot……………………..29.17
    AIG………………………………….27.39
    United Tech………………………24.71
    HP…………………………………..18.77
    Intel………………………………….9.98
    Procter & Gamble………………..8.37
    Microsoft……………………………5.69
    3M……………………………………4.63
    Verizon……………………………..3.58
    Wal-Mart……………………………2.60
    GE…………………………………….1.06
    Pfizer………………………………-11.05
    GM………………………………….-16.01
    J&J………………………………….-27.31

  • Royal Bank-Led Group Bids $98.5 Billion for ABN Amro
    , April 25th, 2007 at 3:32 pm

    I told you this wasn’t over. Now a group led by RBS is making a counter offer of $98.5 billion for ABN Amro. Barclay’s bid is for about $90 billion.

    Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Santander Central Hispano SA and Fortis offered 72.2 billion euros ($98.5 billion) to buy ABN Amro Holding NV, sparking the biggest takeover battle in the financial-services industry.
    The Royal Bank-led group offered 39 euros a share, with 70 percent in cash and 30 percent in stock, the companies said in a statement today. The group said its approach is 13 percent higher than the all-stock bid ABN Amro accepted from Barclays Plc two days ago. Barclays’s bid was worth 67 billion euros at the time.
    The fight for control of Amsterdam-based ABN Amro, which has branches in 53 countries, centers on its LaSalle unit in Chicago. ABN Amro and Barclays elbowed Royal Bank Chief Executive Officer Fred Goodwin aside by agreeing to sell LaSalle to Bank of America Corp. for $21 billion. Goodwin said today that LaSalle will be a “major piece” of any bid.

    The numbers here are staggering. Let’s see if Barclays makes a move.

  • Respironics On Wall Strip
    , April 25th, 2007 at 9:32 am

  • The First Global Bubble?
    , April 24th, 2007 at 9:25 pm

    I don’t necessarily agree with Jeremy Grantham, but here’s an interesting take on the markets.

    For the last 5 years to this March, in dollar terms, the S&P 500 was up 35 per cent compared with 192 per cent for non-US small cap and 221 per cent for emerging markets. After these moves most diversifying and exotic assets are badly overpriced and the risk premium is the lowest it has ever been.
    In fact, the new global money flows have probably created the first truly global bubble, almost everywhere in almost everything. Particularly noteworthy and the beneficiary of our twin forces are small caps everywhere which on our data are more overpriced, driven by private equity deals, than an overpriced market.

  • Dow Flirts With 13000, Gets Number, Never Calls
    , April 24th, 2007 at 4:32 pm

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    Close. Oh so close.

  • SEI Investments Hits New High
    , April 24th, 2007 at 3:24 pm

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    Can’t keep a good stock down. Last year, SEI Investments (SEIC) was the top-performing stock on the Buy List (up 61%).
    I decided to keep it on this year’s Buy List. The stock got slammed last month, but has regained all the lost ground and is now at an all-time high. Earnings come out tomorrow.

  • W.R. Berkley’s Earnings
    , April 24th, 2007 at 11:12 am

    WR Berkley (BER) had a decent earnings. For insurance companies, the key stat you want to see is operating earnings. For BER, operating income came in at 91 cents per share, two cents more than expectations.
    The stock hasn’t done very well over the past year, but the earnings have been good. At one point, BER was over $40 a share (post-split). It’s down again today. The P/E ratio is now under 10.

  • The Stalwart Is Back
    , April 24th, 2007 at 9:43 am

    One of my favorite financial blogs, The Stalwart, is back from its hiatus. The site is consistently thought-provoking and never dull. Check it out.

  • Hedge Fund Compensation
    , April 24th, 2007 at 9:33 am

    Alpha Magazine found that the top 25 hedge fund managers were paid a total of $15 billion last year. The highest-paid was Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies at $1.7 billion. Second place went to Ken Griffin of Citadel at $1.4 billion. Then Eddie Lampert with only $1.3 billion.

  • Earnings Preview: AFLAC
    , April 23rd, 2007 at 2:23 pm

    AFLAC (AFL) reports tomorrow. Here’s a preview from AP:

    OVERVIEW: Once one of only two life insurers in Japan, Aflac now faces a very competitive market in that country, racked by intensifying regulatory scrutiny and lagging consumer confidence.
    Because more than two-thirds of Aflac’s $13.2 billion in insurance policies in force are in Japan, the Columbus, Ga.-based supplemental insurer is heavily exposed to what happens there.
    Last quarter, Japanese regulators summoned data on how much Japanese insurers paid out in claims. While Aflac wasn’t as bad as most other insurers, regulators found insurers underpaid clients when they submitted claims.
    Even though the financial effect on Aflac from the study is minimal, Goldman Sachs analyst Joan H. Zief said the issue underscores how regulatory scrutiny is affecting the market for insurance in Japan.
    Aflac sells supplemental insurance, or policies that cover perils not insured under typical coverage. This is an important product in Japan because the national health care system is under pressure so people are turning to private insurers for supplemental coverage.
    This market is weakening as new competitors enter the industry. Sales in Japan fell 8.8 percent last year, and Aflac predicted sales will continue declining in the first half of the year.
    EXPECTATIONS: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect profit of 79 cents per share in the first quarter. They forecast revenue to rise 5 percent to $3.73 billion.
    ANALYST TAKE: Wachovia Securities analyst John Hall expects Aflac to report higher profit margin in Japan despite lower sales. He predicts Aflac will say lower spending on information technology and marketing initiatives will offset sales weakness.
    Nevertheless, he’s skeptical of Aflac’s forecast that sales in Japan will turn around in the second half.
    Banc of America Securities analyst Tamara K. Kravec said any commentary on the overcrowded health and life insurance market in Japan will be crucial.
    “The market environment in Japan is not smooth sailing,” she said. “Investors will continue to focus on assessing the competitive environment in Japan and what the first quarter will reveal about sales trends and the competitive environment.”

    The stock is going for 13 times next year’s earnings.