Author Archive

• Morning News: September 21, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 21st, 2021 at 7:04 am

  Global Markets Swoon as Worries Mount Over Superpowers’ Plans

  Fortunes Tumble From Seattle to Shenzhen in $135 Billion Wipeout

  U.K. Warns of Challenging Few Days as Energy Crisis Deepens

  There’s a Fortune to Be Made in the Obscure Metals Behind Clean Power

  Lael Brainard Walks Tightrope Toward Next Job With Fed Chair in Play

  Wall Street’s Message on Evergrande: China Has It Under Control

  Royal Dutch Shell Sells Permian Basin Oil Holdings for $9.5 Billion

  Mnuchin’s Private Equity Fund Raises $2.5 Billion

  Bezos Puts $1 Billion of $10 Billion Climate Pledge Into Conservation

  Uber CEO Aims for ‘Fully Green’ Food-Delivery Business

  DoorDash to Offer Alcohol Delivery in 20 States and DC

  A Caribbean Island’s Audacious Tourism Experiment

  Holiday Bummer: Now Prices Are Soaring for Christmas Trees and Decorations

  The Economic Mistake the Left Is Finally Confronting

  The Taper, When It Comes, Will Feel Like a Relief

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• Ugly Day Comes to a Close
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 20th, 2021 at 4:36 pm

  Yuck, that was an ugly day!

  At its low, the S&P 500 was down 2.87%. At least we had a decent rally off the low. The S&P 500 gained 1.20% off today’s low. By the closing bell, the S&P 500 was down 1.70%.

  At one point, the Dow was off by 971 points.

  This kind of day is almost perfectly made for our Buy List to outperform. Five of our Buy List stocks closed higher and nineteen of our 25 stocks beat the S&P 500 today.

  It’s not that we were brilliant today. Rather it reflects the relative conservatism of our portfolio.

  It always sounds odd to talk about outperformance on a down day, but that’s important for our strategy.

  

• Stocks Sees Biggest Drop Since May
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 20th, 2021 at 10:38 am

  The stock market is starting to feel some pain. As I write this, the S&P 500 has been down as much as 1.7% this morning. We haven’t seen a loss like that since May. Of course, there’s a lot of trading to do between now and the closing bell.

  The warning sign came on Friday when the S&P 500 closed just below its 50-day moving average (that’s the blue line on the chart below). Until now, the 50-DMA has been like a trampoline. Every time the market has gotten near it, the bulls have rushed in to save the day. Well, they’re nowhere to be seen this morning.

  The S&P 500 hasn’t closed below its 50-DMA on back-to-back days since last October. That’s the longest such streak in 25 years.

  What’s the reason for the selloff? There’s a lot of talk about Evergrande going belly up. That’s a Chinese development firm that has way too much debt. The fear is that we’re near a “Lehman moment” where one crack in the wall highlights many, many cracks. Of course, there are lots of folks who claim we’re near a Lehman moment every week.

  

• Morning News: September 20, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 20th, 2021 at 7:09 am

  A ‘Perfect Storm’ is Brewing in India’s Investment Scene, Says VC Investor

  Evergrande Gave Workers a Choice: Loan Us Cash or Lose Your Bonus

  China Property Fear Spreads Beyond Evergrande, Roiling Markets

  The Global Housing Market Is Broken, and It’s Dividing Entire Countries

  Global Supply Shortages Reach All the Way to a Haitian Aid Group

  Biden’s Entire Presidential Agenda Rests on Expansive Spending Bill

  Why the Fed Might Welcome a Bond Market Tantrum

  With the Focus on a Taper, Five Questions for the Fed

  The Taper That Will Really Bite Into U.S. Growth Isn’t the Fed’s

  How Accounting Giants Craft Favorable Tax Rules From Inside Government

  How Car Rentals Explain the 2021 Economy

  Google’s Former AI Ethics Chief Has a Plan to Rethink Big Tech

  Gates Raises $1 Billion as Corporate CEOs Join Race to Scale Clean Tech

  Antitrust Is Happily Dying Before Our Eyes, and Judges Are the Reason

  The Pandemic Has Sparked a Book Craze — and Barnes & Noble is Cashing In

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• Thermo Fisher Jumps on Investor Day
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 17th, 2021 at 3:51 pm

  Thermo Fisher (TMO) had its Investor Day today and the shares are reacting well to what the company had to say. For 2021, TMO sees earnings of $22.07 per share on revenue of $35.9 billion. That’s up from $19.55 per share and $32.2 billion for last year. The 2021 guidance is the same as what they’ve said before.

  Thermo offered initial guidance for 2022 of $21.16 per share and revenue of $40.3 billion. In 2025, Thermo sees earnings of $31.04 to $31.84 per share on revenue of $4.88 to $5.08 billion.

  Shares of TMO have been up as much as 8.7% today.

  

• Morning News: September 17, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 17th, 2021 at 7:00 am

  Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Driving Up Natural Gas Prices Worldwide

  Do We Need to Shrink the Economy to Stop Climate Change?

  China Applies to Join Pacific Trade Pact to Boost Economic Clout

  China Adds $14 Billion Cash as Evergrande’s Pain Roils Markets

  Inquiry Finds World Bank Officials, Including Now-I.M.F. Chief, Pushed Staff to Inflate China Data

  November? December? Fed’s ‘Taper’ Timeline Tied to Volatile Jobs Data

  If Your CEO Talks Like Kant, Think Twice Before Investing

  Wall Street Influencers Are Making $500,000, Topping Even Bankers

  Hedge Funders Are Chasing Crypto Despite Warnings of a Possible Crash

  Banks Beware, Amazon and Walmart are Cracking the Code for Finance

  Retailers Rethink Pandemic-Battered Manhattan

  ‘Shang-Chi’ Wins a Warm Asia Greeting. Then There’s China.

  Where Did It All Go So Wrong for Juul?

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• Jobless Claims and Retail Sales
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 16th, 2021 at 11:17 am

  Two economic reports this morning. First, unemployment claims rose to 332,000. That’s up 20,000 from last week which itself was revised higher by 2,000. Last week’s figure of 312,000 is the current pandemic low.

  By the way, the unemployment figures are roughly in line with some of the numbers we saw seven years ago. In other words, we’re getting back to something that looks like normal.

  The other report was retail sales. For August, retail sales rose by 0.7%. In the last year, retail sales are up 15.1%. That number surprised Wall Street. Economists had been expecting a decline of 0.8%. The number for July was revised downward from -1.1% to -1.8%.

  Economists had expected that consumers cut back their activity as the delta variant continued its tear through the U.S. Persistent supply chain bottlenecks also were expected to hold back spending as in-demand goods were hard to find.

  The pandemic’s impact did show up in sales at bars and restaurants, which were flat for the month though still 31.9% ahead of where they were a year ago.

  However, sales were strong for most areas during the month, when back-to-school shopping generally results in a pickup in activity, especially so this year as schools prepared to welcome back students after a year of remote learning.

  The headline number would have been even better without a 3.6% monthly drop in auto-related activity; excluding the sector, sales rose 1.8%, also well above the 0.1% expected gain.

  Just a reminder that the Fed meets again next week.

  

• Morning News: September 16, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 16th, 2021 at 7:04 am

  When the Dragon Sneezes, Europe Catches a Cold

  Japan Cuts Economic View on Weaker Production, Spending Due to COVID Revival

  These Charts Show Impact of China’s Casino Crackdown on Macau

  No Chinese Stock Left Among Global Top 10 as Tencent Slides

  China Intensifies Hunt for Cryptocurrency Miners in Hiding

  The Coinbase Spat With the SEC Ups the Ante in Washington’s Crypto Fight

  Democratic Tax Proposal Takes Aim at ETFs

  Boom for Banks as M&A and Pandemic Boost Corporate FX Needs

  Delta Tells the Economy, Not So Fast

  ‘Just Get Me a Box’: Inside the Brutal Realities of Supply Chain Hell

  U.S. Poverty Fell Last Year as Government Aid Made Up for Lost Jobs

  The Battle for Digital Privacy Is Reshaping the Internet

  What the Privacy Battle Upending the Internet Means for You

  Climate Change Calls for Backup Power, and One Company Cashes In

  Chevron CEO Warns of High Energy Prices and Supply Crunches

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• August Industrial Production Increased by 0.4%
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 15th, 2021 at 1:19 pm

  A quiet day so far. The stock market is up today after falling six times in seven days. I don’t think you’ll see many shallower losses for six-in-seven-day stretches. We also came somewhat close to the 50-day moving average. That can be an important psychological breaking point, but not always.

  Once again, energy stocks are doing the heavy lifting. Energy had been lagging since March. Only recently has it perked up again.

  The Federal Reserve released the industrial production report this morning. Last month, industrial production increased by 0.4%. The Fed said that Hurricane Ida chopped off 0.3% from that number. The increase for July was revised up to a gain of 0.8%.

  Industrial production is now 0.3% below its pre-pandemic peak. This was our sixth monthly increase in a row.

  

• Morning News: September 15, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 15th, 2021 at 7:04 am

  ‘Fortress Australia’ Creates Automatic Visa to Let In Top Talent

  Macau Casinos See $18 Billion Wipeout as China Tightens Grip

  China Evergrande’s Liquidity Crisis Deepens, Report Flags Interest Payment Miss

  Prices Climbed More Slowly in August, Welcome News for the Fed

  Should Biden Reappoint Jerome Powell? It Depends on His Theory of Change.

  U.S. Poverty Fell Last Year as Government Aid Made Up for Lost Jobs

  Food Hasn’t Been This Expensive in Over 50 Years

  Elizabeth Warren Asks the Fed to Break Up Wells Fargo

  A Crack Opens in the App Store Economy

  SoftBank CEO Son Says Smart Robots Can Revitalise Japan Growth, Competitiveness

  Google Fined $177 Million in South Korea Over Thwarting Potential Android Rivals

  Microsoft Hikes Dividend and Unveils $60 Billion Stock Buyback Program

  Chevron to Triple Low-Carbon Investment

  Peter Thiel Gamed Silicon Valley, Donald Trump, and Democracy to Make Billions, Tax-Free

  Steve Cohen Throws Himself Into Crypto After Early Doubts

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