Author Archive

• Morning News: January 1, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 1st, 2020 at 8:49 am

  Trump Says U.S.-China Trade Deal Will Be Signed on January 15

  Google to End ‘Double Irish, Dutch Sandwich’ Tax Scheme

  Airbus Beats Goal with 863 Jet Deliveries in 2019, Ousts Boeing from Top Spot

  The Tech That Will Invade Our Lives in 2020

  FDA Plans to Ban Most E-Cigarette Flavors But Menthol

  A Simple Investment Strategy That Worked in 2019: Buy Almost Anything

  China Moves to Steady Its Slowing Economic Growth

  Florida, Trump’s New Home, Leads the U.S. in Money Migration

  U.S. Stocks Rally to Cap Best Year Since 2013

  Carlos Ghosn Has Tales to Tell and Scores to Settle

  Nick Maggiulli: My Best Advice to Prospective Bloggers

  Michael Batnick: Animal Spirits: Everybody’s Busy

  Joshua Brown: The Most Disruptive Trend of the Decade

• The 2020 Buy List
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 31st, 2019 at 10:40 pm

  Here are the 25 stocks for the 2020 Buy List. It’s locked and sealed, and I can’t make any changes for 12 months.

  For tracking purposes, I assume the Buy List is a $1 million portfolio that’s equally divided among 25 stocks. Below are all 25 positions with the number of shares for each and the closing price for 2019. Whenever I discuss how the Buy List is doing, the list below is what I’m referring to.

  Company	Ticker	Price	Shares	Balance
  AFLAC	AFL	$52.90	756.14367	$40,000.00
  Ansys	ANSS	$257.41	155.39412	$40,000.00
  Becton, Dickinson	BDX	$271.97	147.07505	$40,000.00
  Broadridge Financial Solutions	BR	$123.54	323.78177	$40,000.00
  Cerner	CERN	$73.39	545.03338	$40,000.00
  Check Point Software	CHKP	$110.96	360.49027	$40,000.00
  Church & Dwight	CHD	$70.34	568.66648	$40,000.00
  Danaher	DHR	$153.48	260.62028	$40,000.00
  Disney	DIS	$144.63	276.56779	$40,000.00
  Eagle Bancorp	EGBN	$48.63	822.53753	$40,000.00
  FactSet Research Systems	FDS	$268.30	149.08684	$40,000.00
  Fiserv	FISV	$115.63	345.93099	$40,000.00
  Globe Life	GL	$105.25	380.04751	$40,000.00
  Hershey	HSY	$146.98	272.14587	$40,000.00
  Hormel Foods	HRL	$45.11	886.72135	$40,000.00
  Intercontinental Exchange	ICE	$92.55	432.19881	$40,000.00
  Middleby	MIDD	$109.52	365.23009	$40,000.00
  Moody’s	MCO	$237.41	168.48490	$40,000.00
  Ross Stores	ROST	$116.42	343.58358	$40,000.00
  RPM International	RPM	$76.76	521.10474	$40,000.00
  Sherwin-Williams	SHW	$583.54	68.54714	$40,000.00
  Silgan	SLGN	$31.08	1287.00129	$40,000.00
  Stepan	SCL	$102.44	390.47247	$40,000.00
  Stryker	SYK	$209.94	190.53063	$40,000.00
  Trex	TREX	$89.88	445.03783	$40,000.00
  Total				$1,000,000.00

  The five new stocks are Ansys (ANSS), Middleby (MIDD), Silgan (SLGN), Stepan (SCL) and Trex (TREX).

  The five sells are Continental Building Products (CBPX), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Raytheon (RTN), JM Smucker (SJM) and Signature Bank (SBNY).

  Disney (DIS) is our largest stock, with a market cap of $261 billion. The Buy List is mostly large- and mid-cap stocks. Four of the five new buys for this year are our only stocks with market caps less than $10 billion. That’s not a strategic decision on my part. It just worked out that way.

  Only AFLAC (AFL) and Fiserv (FISV) have been on the Buy List all 15 years. This is Stryker’s (SYK) 13th year.

  Here’s a brief description (via Hoovers) of our five new stocks:

  It’s good to look before you leap – and even before you make. That’s why ANSYS (ANSS) helps designers and engineers see how their ideas play out even before a prototype is built by simulating designs on a computer. The company’s software analyzes the models for their response to combinations of such physical variables as stress, pressure, impact, temperature, and velocity. Ranging from small consulting firms to multinational enterprises, its 40,000 customers come from a broad range of industries and include QualComm, Ford, TechnipFMC, Medtronic, and Speedo. Pennsylvania-based ANSYS generates about 60% of revenue from outside the US, with Japan and Germany among its leading international markets.

  Founded in 1888, Middleby (MIDD) makes a slew of commercial and institutional foodservice equipment for restaurants, retailers, and hotels worldwide. Middleby operates through three segments: Commercial Foodservice Equipment, Food Processing Equipment, and Residential Kitchen Equipment. The largest, Foodservice, makes machines for most types of cooking and warming activities. Products are sold under about 50 blue chip brands – Anets, Blodgett, Southbend, and TurboChef, among them. Residential Kitchen makes ovens, refrigerators, dishwashers, microwaves, and other related products, and Food Processing makes cooking, mixing, slicing, and packaging machines. About two-thirds of sales come from the US and Canada.

  Silgan Holdings (SLGN) is one of the leading makers of metal containers in the world, and in North America, it holds the #1 position in metal food containers. Its containers are used by customers such as Campbell’s Soup, Del Monte, and Nestlé to package soups, vegetables, meat, seafood, and pet food. Through its Silgan Dispensing Systems business, the company supplies highly engineered triggers, pumps, sprayers and dispensing closure solutions for health care, garden, home, and beauty and food products. Silgan also makes plastic containers used by personal care, pharmaceutical, and other companies. About 80% of its revenue comes from North America.

  Stepan Company (SCL) makes basic and intermediate chemicals, including surfactants, specialty products, phthalic anhydride, and polyurethane polyols. Surfactants, the company’s largest business, are used in cleaning agents and consumer products like detergents, toothpastes, and cosmetics. Stepan’s surfactants also have commercial and industrial applications ranging from emulsifiers for agricultural insecticides to agents used in oil recovery. The company also makes phthalic anhydride and other polymers, in addition to specialty chemicals for food and pharmaceutical uses. The US is Stepan’s biggest market.

  Trex Company (TREX) is all decked out with plenty of places to go. It’s the world’s largest maker of wood-alternative decking and railing products, which are used in the construction of residential and commercial decks, rails, and trims. Marketed under the Trex name, products resemble wood and have the workability of wood, but require less long-term maintenance. The Trex Wood-Polymer composite is made of waste wood fibers and reclaimed plastic. Trex serves professional installation contractors and do-it-yourselfers through about 90 wholesale distribution centers, which in turn sell to retailers including Home Depot and Lowe’s. Trex products are available in more than 5,500 locations, primarily in the US and Canada.

• The 2019 Buy List
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 31st, 2019 at 10:15 pm

  The 2019 trading year is on the books! For 2019, the S&P 500 gained 28.88% while our Buy List gained 29.99%. Including dividends, the S&P 500 gained 31.49% while our Buy List gained 31.57%.

  That’s right, we beat the market by eight basis points!

  This was a close finish. By August, our Buy List had a 6% lead over the market, but much of that eroded away in the final weeks of the year.

  For the long-term, we’ve done quite well. Over the last 14 years, our Buy List has gained 309.61% while the S&P 500 has gained 247.13%.

  Our biggest winner of the year was Moody’s (MCO) which gained nearly 70%. Fifteen of our 25 stocks were up more than 30% for the year. Every stock except Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) and Eagle Bank (EGBN) finished in the black.

  For people who care about such things, the “beta” of our Buy List in 2019 was 0.8125. That’s pretty low for us. The correlation of the daily changes of the Buy List to the changes of the S&P 500 was 89.96%.

  The chart below details the Buy List’s performance. I’ve listed each stock along with the number of shares and the starting and ending prices. For tracking purposes, I assume the Buy List is a $1 million portfolio that starts out equally divided among the 25 stocks.

  Stock	Shares	12/31/18	Beginning	12/31/19	Ending	Profit/Loss
  AFL	877.96313	$45.56	$40,000.00	$52.90	$46,444.25	16.11%
  BDX	177.52530	$225.32	$40,000.00	$271.97	$48,281.56	20.70%
  BR	415.58442	$96.25	$40,000.00	$123.54	$51,341.30	28.35%
  CBPX	1571.70923	$25.45	$40,000.00	$36.43	$57,257.37	43.14%
  CERN	762.77651	$52.44	$40,000.00	$73.39	$55,980.17	39.95%
  CHD	608.27251	$65.76	$40,000.00	$70.34	$42,785.89	6.96%
  CHKP	389.67365	$102.65	$40,000.00	$110.96	$43,238.19	8.10%
  CTSH	630.11972	$63.48	$40,000.00	$62.02	$39,080.03	-2.30%
  DHR	387.89760	$103.12	$40,000.00	$153.48	$59,534.52	48.84%
  DIS	364.79708	$109.65	$40,000.00	$144.63	$52,760.60	31.90%
  EGBN	821.18661	$48.71	$40,000.00	$48.63	$39,934.30	-0.16%
  FDS	199.87008	$200.13	$40,000.00	$268.30	$53,625.14	34.06%
  FISV	544.29174	$73.49	$40,000.00	$115.63	$62,936.45	57.34%
  GL	536.69663	$74.53	$40,000.00	$105.25	$56,487.32	41.22%
  HRL	937.20712	$42.68	$40,000.00	$45.11	$42,277.41	5.69%
  HSY	373.20396	$107.18	$40,000.00	$146.98	$54,853.52	37.13%
  ICE	530.99695	$75.33	$40,000.00	$92.55	$49,143.77	22.86%
  MCO	285.63268	$140.04	$40,000.00	$237.41	$67,812.05	69.53%
  ROST	480.76923	$83.20	$40,000.00	$116.42	$55,971.15	39.93%
  RPM	680.50357	$58.78	$40,000.00	$76.76	$52,235.45	30.59%
  RTN	260.84121	$153.35	$40,000.00	$219.74	$57,317.25	43.29%
  SBNY	389.06721	$102.81	$40,000.00	$136.61	$53,150.47	32.88%
  SHW	101.66218	$393.46	$40,000.00	$583.54	$59,323.95	48.31%
  SJM	427.85325	$93.49	$40,000.00	$104.13	$44,552.36	11.38%
  SYK	255.18341	$156.75	$40,000.00	$209.94	$53,573.21	33.93%
  	Total		$1,000,000.00		$1,299,897.68	29.99%

  On August 8, 2019, Torchmark changed its name to Globe Life. The ticker symbol changed from TMK to GL.

  Here’s how the Buy List performed throughout the year:

  

  Here’s the data behind the dividend-adjusted returns. I’ve listed each stock’s beginning price, ending price and dividend-adjusted starting price.

  Symbol	Start	Finish	Adju Start	Gain	Gain w/Divs
  AFL	$45.56	$52.90	$44.62	16.11%	18.56%
  BDX	$225.32	$271.97	$222.56	20.70%	22.20%
  BR	$96.25	$123.54	$94.60	28.35%	30.59%
  CBPX	$25.45	$36.43	$25.45	43.14%	43.14%
  CERN	$52.44	$73.39	$52.04	39.95%	41.03%
  CHD	$65.76	$70.34	$64.92	6.96%	8.35%
  CHKP	$102.65	$110.96	$102.65	8.10%	8.10%
  CTSH	$63.48	$62.02	$62.69	-2.30%	-1.07%
  DHR	$103.12	$153.48	$102.63	48.84%	49.55%
  DIS	$109.65	$144.63	$108.33	31.90%	33.51%
  EGBN	$48.71	$48.63	$48.26	-0.16%	0.77%
  FDS	$200.13	$268.30	$198.00	34.06%	35.51%
  FISV	$73.49	$115.63	$73.49	57.34%	57.34%
  GL	$74.53	$105.25	$73.95	41.22%	42.33%
  HRL	$42.68	$45.11	$41.83	5.69%	7.84%
  HSY	$107.18	$146.98	$104.83	37.13%	40.21%
  ICE	$75.33	$92.55	$74.35	22.86%	24.48%
  MCO	$140.04	$237.41	$138.63	69.53%	71.25%
  ROST	$83.20	$116.42	$82.37	39.93%	41.34%
  RPM	$58.78	$76.76	$57.43	30.59%	33.66%
  RTN	$153.35	$219.74	$150.99	43.29%	45.53%
  SBNY	$102.81	$136.61	$101.01	32.88%	35.24%
  SHW	$393.46	$583.54	$389.81	48.31%	49.70%
  SJM	$93.49	$104.13	$90.63	11.38%	14.90%
  SYK	$156.75	$209.94	$155.13	33.93%	35.33%
  Total				29.99%	31.57%

• Every Buy List Stock
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 31st, 2019 at 11:56 am

  Here are all 91 Buy List stocks and when they made the cut.

  Stocks

  ’06

  ’07

  ’08

  ’09

  ’10

  ’11

  ’12

  ’13

  ’14

  ’15

  ’16

  ’17

  ’18

  19

  20

  ABT

  X

  ADS

  X

  X

  X

  AFL

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  ANSS

  X

  APH

  X

  X

  X

  AXTA

  X

  BAX

  X

  X

  BBBY

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  BCR

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  BDX

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  BER/WRB

  X

  X

  BIIB

  X

  BLL

  X

  BMET

  X

  X

  BR

  X

  X

  BRO

  X

  CA

  X

  X

  X

  CBPX

  X

  X

  X

  CERN

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  CHD

  X

  X

  X

  CHKP

  X

  X

  X

  CLC

  X

  CNK

  X

  CSV

  X

  CTSH

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  DCI

  X

  X

  X

  X

  DELL

  X

  DHR

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  DIS

  X

  X

  DLX

  X

  DTV

  X

  X

  X

  EBAY/PYPL

  X

  X

  EGBN

  X

  X

  ESRX

  X

  X

  X

  X

  EV

  X

  X

  EXPD

  X

  F

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  FDS

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  FIC

  X

  X

  FISV

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  GDW/WB

  X

  GGG

  X

  GILD

  X

  X

  GL/TMK

  X

  X

  X

  HCBK

  X

  HD

  X

  HEI

  X

  X

  HOG

  X

  X

  X

  HRL

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  HRS

  X

  X

  HSY

  X

  X

  IBM

  X

  ICE

  X

  X

  X

  X

  INGR

  X

  X

  INTC

  X

  JNJ

  X

  X

  X

  JOSB

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  JPM

  X

  X

  X

  LLY

  X

  X

  LNCR

  X

  LUK

  X

  X

  X

  X

  MCD

  X

  MCO

  X

  X

  X

  X

  MDT

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  MIDD

  X

  MOG-A

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  MSFT

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  NICK

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  ORCL

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  QCOM

  X

  X

  RAI

  X

  X

  X

  RESP

  X

  X

  ROST

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  RPM

  X

  X

  X

  X

  RTN

  X

  SBNY

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  SEIC

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  SHW

  X

  X

  X

  X

  SJM

  X

  X

  X

  SCL

  X

  SLGN

  X

  SNA

  X

  X

  X

  X

  SRCL

  X

  SYK

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  SYY

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  TREX

  X

  UNH

  X

  X

  X

  VAR

  X

  X

  WAB

  X

  X

  X

  X

  WFC

  X

  X

  X

  X

  WXS/WEX

  X

  X

  X

  X

  AFLAC and Fiserv are the only two left that have been on every year. Stryker is on for the 13th year in a row.

• Morning News: December 31, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 31st, 2019 at 7:47 am

  Markets in 2019: You Couldn’t Lose Money If You Tried

  From Opioid Deaths to Student Debt: A View of the 2010s Economy in Charts

  2020 U.S. Economy Field Guide: Five Key Things to Watch

  Bitcoin’s 9,000,000% Rise This Decade Leaves the Skeptics Aghast

  Ghosn Flees to Lebanon to Escape ‘Rigged’ Japan Legal System

  Electric Cars Threaten the Heart of Germany’s Economy

  The Big Change Coming to Just About Every Website on New Year’s Day

  Asia’s Richest Man Unveils Online Store in Challenge to Amazon

  Tencent Group Buys 10% of Universal Music Group for $3.4 Billion

  Why the Impact of the Trump Taxes Remains Partly Hidden

  What Will We Eat in 2020? Something Toasted, Something Blue

  Ben Carlson: The 2010s Market Decade in Review

  Joshua Brown: Two Investment Tricks You Can Use For 2020

  Howard Lindzon: Momemtum Monday – Add A Little Froth To My Nasdaq Latte

  Roger Nusbaum: Non-Financial Example Of Solving Your Own Problem

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• The Second-to-Last Day of the year
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 30th, 2019 at 12:22 pm

  It’s been a good year for stocks, but the second-to-last day of 2019 looks to be a soggy one for the market.

  The Dow has been down as much as 217 points this morning. Honestly, that’s not much, but it’s a change of pace from the stair-step rally that we’ve enjoyed of late.

  The stocks that have done the best recently (like tech) are down the most today. To be technical, this is what they call a counter-trend day.The S&P 500 has been up for five weeks in a row. There’s a chance (a distant one) of the index having its best year since 1997. We’ll probably fall just short of that.

  Historically, the Santa Claus Rally is a real thing. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% during the final five trading days of the year and the first two sessions of the new year. Let’s hope Santa delivers this year.

  This morning we learned that pending home sales rose 1.2% last month. In the last year, pending sales are up 7.4%. That’s a good report.

• Morning News: December 30, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 30th, 2019 at 7:33 am

  A 7-Eleven in Japan Might Close for a Day. Yes, That’s a Big Deal.

  EU Seeks Reset in Trade Talks With U.S. – Trade Chief Hogan

  The Decade of Debt: Big Deals, Bigger Risk

  The Decade That Saw Volatility Trading Come of Age

  Bitcoin Believers Expect 2020 Rally as a Reward for Halving

  Gold Up, Dollar Down; Perhaps An Early Glimpse Of A 2020 Trend

  Oil Price Rise Muted in 2019 Despite Sanctions, Supply Cuts, Attack In Saudi Arabia

  How Big Companies Won New Tax Breaks From the Trump Administration

  Tesla Just Delivered Its First China-Built Cars in Shanghai

  Egypt Competition Watchdog Approves Uber Acquisition Of Careem With Conditions

  Hedge Funds to Record More Closures Than Launches for Fifth Straight Year

  Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: Does Historical Analysis Improve Market Forecasts?

  Michael Batnick: Slow and Steady

  Ben Carlson: Peter Lynch: The Barry Sanders of Investing

  Roger Nusbaum: Is There A Tradeoff Between Freedom & Happiness? & A New Defensive Tool From Direxion?

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Morning News: December 27, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 27th, 2019 at 7:51 am

  China’s Government Is Letting a Wave of Bond Defaults Just Happen

  China Blocks American Books as Trade War Simmers

  U.S. Energy Shareholders Seek to Leave Behind a Lost Decade

  Guide To Beating The New Death Tax: The End Of The Stretch IRA

  U.S. Government Sets Record for Debt Auctions

  Americans’ Near-Record Levels of Credit Card Debt Help Bolster Banking Industry

  Banks Set for Biggest Job Cull Since 2015 as Morgan Stanley Cuts

  The ‘Fire and Ice’ Decade That Changed Everything on Wall Street

  The F.A.A. Wants to Start Tracking Drones’ Locations

  Blocked in U.S., Huawei Touts ‘Shared Values’ to Compete in Europe

  The Rikers Coffee Academy

  Self-Checkout in France Sets Off Battle Over a Day of Rest

  Nissan Orders Drastic Spending Cuts to Stem Profit Slide and ‘Conserve Every Yen’

  Tesla Set to Begin Deliveries of China-Made Model 3 Cars on Dec. 30

  Ben Carlson: The Awful Economy Paul Volcker Inherited in 1979

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• The Nasdaq Breaks 9,000
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 26th, 2019 at 12:55 pm

  For the first time in history, the Nasdaq Composite broke 9,000 this morning. For some context, the index last closed below 900 on June 14, 1995, and it last closed below 90 on November 19, 1976.

  The S&P 500 is also at an all-time high this morning. Mastercard said that e-commerce sales rose 18.8% over last year. Overall holiday retail sales, excluding autos, rose 3.4%.

  This morning’s jobless claims reports fell by 13,000 to 222,000. Wall Street had been expecting 222,000. That’s a pretty good report.

  

• Morning News: December 26, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 26th, 2019 at 7:54 am

  Indian IPOs Fall to Four-Year Low as Economy Falters

  Oil Hits Highest Since September on Trade Hopes, OPEC Cuts

  The Corporate Bond Market’s $100 Billion Buyer Is Here to Stay

  Gold Makes Headway Above $1,500 as 2020 Comes Into Closer Focus

  How the Trade War Is Putting Christmas In a Brand New Light

  Record Online Sales Give U.S. Holiday Shopping Season a Boost

  ‘Everyday Supercar’: A New Corvette Puts a Target on Ferrari’s Back

  Tesla: There’s None So Blind As Those Who Will Not See

  Brash Uber Co-Founder Kalanick Leaves Board to Focus on Industrial Kitchens

  Burning Man Organizers Sue U.S. Over Millions in Permit Fees

  Behind a U.A.W. Crisis: Lavish Meals and Luxury Villas

  Is a 63-Year-Old Seaplane With an Electric Engine the Future of Air Travel?

  Jeff Carter: What Is The Biggest Analytical Mistake People Make?

  Howard Lindzon: Merry Christmas and Some Resolutions

  Michael Batnick: Animal Spirits: The Best Decade In Human History

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.