• It Was Only a Matter of Time
    Posted by on December 22nd, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    The Empire takes over Wall Street.

    (HT: Carney)

  • Where’s the Priciest Real Estate?
    Posted by on December 22nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm

    With the help of Zillow, I looked at the number of homes on the market going for $5 million or more. I found 5,028 homes. These homes are overwhelming skewed to a few areas. For example, more than half the homes are in three states—New York, Florida and California. At the other end, many states only have a handful and five have none.
    On this spreadsheet, I broke out the numbers into states, then prominent counties and also a few select towns and neighborhoods.
    Let me stress that this is far from a scientific survey. I don’t fully trust every listing on Zillow, but I think this gives you a good idea of where the pricey homes are.
    I also looked at the number of homes per 100,000 people. Be aware that just a few homes in a small community can really jack up the rate. Also, the rate is artificially high in resort communities because the pricey may not be owned by full-time residents.

  • Altucher’s 10 Predictions for 2010
    Posted by on December 22nd, 2009 at 12:55 pm

    James Altucher, one of my favorite financial writers, has his ten predictions for 2010. Here’s a summary:
    1.) The S&P 500 will touch 1300 at some point during the year.
    2.) Unemployment goes down to 8%.
    3.) GDP hits an annualized 6% by Q2 as inventories get restocked.
    4.) Dendreon (DNDN) is acquired.
    5.) AOL gets bought by Microsoft.
    6.) B will the best letter in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China.
    7.) Health care will greatly outperform the S&P in 2010.
    8.) Banks start lending money again.
    9.) Either Apple or Amazon will develop the killer tablet computing product (or be close to it for 2011).
    10.) The world will not end.
    I like #7 as you can tell from my new Buy List.

  • Treasury Memo
    Posted by on December 22nd, 2009 at 11:13 am

    This is brutal. It’s funny, as they say, because it’s true.
    (I love the idea of 82-year-old Paul Volcker giving the memo a frowny face and writing “H8 it!”)

  • The S&P 500 Breaks 1,120; VIX Below 20
    Posted by on December 22nd, 2009 at 10:20 am

    Stocks are rallying after the poor GDP report. The S&P 500 briefly broke 1,120 for the first time in nearly 15 months. The VIX also dipped below 20 for the first time since August 2008.

  • Third-Quarter GDP Revised Down…Again
    Posted by on December 22nd, 2009 at 9:43 am

    The final report on third-quarter GDP showed that the economy grew by a lackluster 2.2% during July, August and September. The original report said 3.5%, then it was lowered to 2.8% and now we’re at 2.2%.
    That’s just not very good at all. The economy will have to grow at 3% or more to create new jobs to the empty the ranks of the 15 million unemployed. Four percent or more would be even better. The good news is that the third quarter was a long time ago and we’re about to close out the fourth quarter. Usually whenever a recession ends, we see a “boom quarter,” where GDP jumps by 5% or 6%. Hopefully, one will be coming soon.
    Here’s a chart I like to look at every so often. This is real GDP divided by a trend line of about 3.08% a year. That’s been about the historic growth rate over the last 40 years. I then set the average value to 1.0. In other words, I’m trying a quick-and-dirty way to see where we are compared with GDP potential. Bear in mind, this method is very dangerous because it assumes past GDP performance will continue. Still, I think it’s interesting to see where we stand today compared with the past few decades.
    image881.png
    Notice that this chart shows how meager the recover was from 2003 to 2007.

  • Invest in Faith
    Posted by on December 21st, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    Felix Salmon spots the FaithShares market which has a few faith-based ETF.
    Here’s a rundown:
    Baptist (FZB)
    Catholic (FCV)
    Christian (FOC)
    Lutheran (FKL)
    Methodist (FMV)
    I suggest a counter-Reformation trade: long FCV/short FKL. The possibilities are endless.

  • The S&P 500 Passes Gold
    Posted by on December 21st, 2009 at 1:44 pm

    The S&P 500 is currently up 11.65 today to 1,114.12 while gold is down $17.80 to $1093.70. I have no idea what this means but I’m passing it along anyway.

  • Tepper’s Hedge Fund Scores $7 Billion Year
    Posted by on December 21st, 2009 at 10:53 am

    Ever heard of David Tepper? His hedge fund made $7 billion this year, of which Mr. Tepper will keep about $2.5 billion for himself. The funds secret was to beat against American falling into a second Great Depression.

    Through February and March, Mr. Tepper scooped up beaten-down bank shares as many investors were running for the exits. Day after day, Mr. Tepper bought Bank of America Corp. shares, then trading below $3, and Citigroup Inc. preferred shares, when that stock was under $1. One of his investors insisted more carnage loomed. Friends who shared his bullish beliefs were wary of aping his moves amid speculation that the government was about to nationalize the big banks.
    “I felt like I was alone,” Mr. Tepper recalls. On some days, he says, “no one was even bidding.”
    The bets paid off. A resurgent market has helped Mr. Tepper’s firm, Appaloosa Management, gain about 120% after the firm’s fees, through early December. Thanks to those gains, Mr. Tepper, who specializes in the stocks and bonds of troubled companies, manages about $12 billion, a sum that makes Appaloosa one of the largest hedge funds in the world.

  • The Short-Selling Conspiracy
    Posted by on December 21st, 2009 at 9:57 am

    I’m honored to be named a Sith Lord — a member of the short-selling conspiracy.
    If anyone needs me, I’ll be meeting with the Rothschilds by the grassy knoll.