Morning News: January 23, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 23rd, 2026 at 7:03 am

Business Activity Picks Up In Parts Of Europe and Asia

Why Trump’s Reversal on Greenland Still Leaves Europe on Edge

Lutnick Suggests Canada-China Deal Threatens CUSMA Renegotiation

Bank of Japan Keeps Rates at 30-Year High as It Gauges Impact of Last Hike

Fed Not Seen Cutting Rates Again Until June in Latest Survey

Bitcoin Price Not Following ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative Amid Greenland Tensions

Competition Begets Better Banking Data Than Regulation

FDIC Clears Way for Ford, General Motors to Set Up Industrial Banks

Consumer Prices Rose 2.8% Through November, a Sign of Sticky Inflation

One Easy Way to Address the Affordability Issue

Falling Prices Enable the Savings That Drive Progress

Excessive Litigation Is Hurting the Retirement Plans of Americans

Wall Street Pushes Solo 401(k)s as More Americans Work for Themselves

The Historian Who Says Finance Is Wasting a Generation of Talent

Trump Sues JPMorgan, CEO Jamie Dimon for $5 Billion Over Alleged Debanking

Can Newsom Stop California’s Billionaire Tax?

‘Quiet-Quitting’ of US Assets Fuels Boom in Bets From EM to Gold

Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions.

Minneapolis ICE Standoff Has Become the Political Issue CEOs Can’t Ignore

The US Is Losing Top Tech Talent to India in the Wake of Trump’s H-1B Chaos

The Problem With That ‘Great Healthcare Plan’

Big Insurers Try to Shift Blame for High Health Costs to Hospitals and Drug Makers

America’s Energy Revolution Continues

America’s Ice Storm Battery Test Begins This Weekend

EPA Shouldn’t Try to Hide the Benefits of Clean Air

New U.S. Rule Aims to Speed Up Mining of the Seafloor

China Tells Alibaba, Tech Firms to Prep Nvidia H200 Orders

Can Old Lime Bikes and Hard Disks Counter China’s Rare-Earth Chokehold?

Intel Shares Fall on Swing to Loss

A Guide to the Circular Deals Underpinning the AI Boom

There’s a New American TikTok. What Does That Mean for You?

After TikTok Deal, Chinese Companies Search for a New Global Path

Dana White’s Empire of Testosterone Now Stretches to the White House

Macron’s Davos Shades Crash Italian Maker’s Site, Boost Shares

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Morning News: January 22, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 22nd, 2026 at 7:07 am

Latin America Rides Out Trump’s Trade Storm With Help From China

What Trump Said About the U.S. Economy at Davos

China Wins as Trump Cedes Leadership of the Global Economy

Trump’s Protectionism Is the Affirmative Action He Claims to Despise

Howard Lutnick’s Davos Speech Ends In Chaos After Heckling And ‘Walkouts’

At Davos, the World Rebalanced Against a Bully

America’s Davos Climbdown Shows Humiliation Has Its Limits

How Trump Has Pocketed $1,408, 500,000 in the White House

Rutte Says Trump Greenland Plan Involved No Sovereignty Talk

Geopolitical Turbulence May Test Euro Area Banks’ Forex Funding, Risk Body Warns

‘Sell America’ Is the Long Game for Europeans

It’s Time for JPMorgan and BofA to Make Room Up Top

How Trump Is Rewriting the Rules for America’s Biggest Banks

Why Waiting to Regulate Crypto Is a Policy Mistake

Deutsche Börse to Acquire Allfunds for $6.19 Billion

EQT to Acquire Private Equity Firm Coller Capital For Up to $3.7 Billion

Ray Dalio Sees Ongoing Diversification Away From US Assets

Silicon Valley Pours Out Lobbying Cash and Flattery to Win Over Deal-Minded Trump

China Lagging in AI Is a ‘Fairy Tale,’ Mistral CEO Says

Companies Move to Refinance Sooner: ‘Better Off to Lock It In’

Malfunction Forces Japan to Take Restarted Nuclear Plant Offline

Why One Big Ship Buyer Wants Shadow Fleet Tankers

Venezuela’s Questionable Oil Figures Are Now Trump’s to Tout

US Won’t Offer Security Guarantees to Oil Companies in Venezuela

Change in Venezuela Isn’t the Only Reason to Own Oil-Field-Services Stocks

Halliburton Exports Its Oil Gear as Fracking Goes Global

When Elon Musk Came for Michael O’Leary, the Irishman Knew Exactly What to Do

Abbott Sinks After First-Quarter Profit Forecast Falls Short

Federal Regulators Take New Aim at Late-Night TV

He Wants New Yorkers to Have a Stake in the Knicks and the Rangers

Sports-Betting Scandals Are Ubiquitous. Whether Fans Will Care Is an Open Question.

Target Store Staff Are Skipping Work Over ICE’s Crackdown in Minnesota

Lululemon Founder Slams Board After See-Through Leggings Fiasco

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Morning News: January 21, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 21st, 2026 at 7:08 am

IEA Lifts Oil Demand Forecast But Warns Supply Surplus Persists

Fracking Goes Global

An Anxious Japan Restarts the World’s Biggest Nuclear Plant

In Great Britain, Industrial Prowess Surrenders to Green

In Great Britain, Industrial Prowess Surrenders to Green

Why Is America Dismantling the Western Alliance?

Trump’s Greenland Threat Is Stirring Up Europe’s Deepest Divisions

Trump’s Trade Deal With EU Looks Shaky Amid Greenland Grab

Dimon Says He Would Be ‘More Polite’ in Criticizing Europe

Greenland Tensions Rattle Global Markets

Greenland Clash Risks Undermining America’s Place in World Economic Order

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Turns Up the Heat on Fed’s Jerome Powell

There’s Much More at Stake in the Fed Case Than Interest Rates

Wall Street’s TACO Trade Runs Into a Problem of Its Own Making

Trump’s Tabloid Presidency Is a Recipe for Chaos

The Enduring Legacy of Trump’s Imperial Presidency

Strong Incentives As the Path To Economic Advance

Trump Outlines Next Steps for Housing Investor Ban

A Case for Housing As the Dream for Millennials

Nosebleed Housing Prices Aren’t Signaling What the Experts Think

Rich Americans Had a Good 2025. Everyone Else Fell Behind

The Americans Who Are Going a Whole Month Without Buying Anything

Target’s ICE Response Shows Corporate America’s Overcorrection

Geothermal Wildcatter Zanskar, Which Uses AI to Find Heat, Raises $115 Million

Colleges Are Letting AI Bots Help Make Decisions on Who to Admit

Nvidia CEO Says AI Will Create Jobs For Electricians and Plumbers

How This AI-Infused Warehouse Sorts Real Louis Vuitton Bags From Fakes

Elon Musk Accused of Making Up Math to Squeeze $134B from OpenAI, Microsoft

Why Elon Musk Is Racing to Take SpaceX Public

J&J’s Sales and Profit Rise on Strong Cancer and Autoimmune Drug Sales

Netflix Earnings Shed Light on Why It Needs Warner

Smithfield Foods to Buy Nathan’s Famous

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CWS Market Review – January 20, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 20th, 2026 at 5:20 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Markets Drop on Greenland News

The stock market opened sharply lower this morning due to rising tensions over Greenland. (Well, there’s a sentence I never saw myself typing.)

The stock market was not pleased over this weekend’s news. The Dow lost 870 points today and the S&P 500 dropped a little over 2%. The Nasdaq fell by 2.4%. The S&P 500 also fell below its 50-day moving average. This was the worst day for the index since October.

A lot of folks just seem baffled by President Trump’s actions. French President Emmanuel Macron emailed President Trump saying, “I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland.” He’s not alone.

As usual, I’ll steer clear of any political angles – that’s not my specialty. I do know markets and markets do not like uncertainty, but that’s what we’re getting over Greenland.

My hunch is to ignore this as typical Trumpian bluster, but I can’t be positive. Some folks are taking this very seriously. Denmark has moved troops to Greenland. There appears to be a desire to deescalate tensions.

President Trump has threatened new tariffs on several European countries that aren’t siding with him over Greenland. This could impact $100 billion worth of U.S. exports. Countries such as Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands and Finland will be hit with 10% tariffs on February 1. Those will rise to 25% in June.

The “Sell America” trade dominated world markets on Tuesday. Before there’s warfare on the battlefields, there’s often warfare in the markets. On Tuesday, the dollar plunged, Treasuries fell, yields spiked and gold rallied. In fact, gold and silver hit record highs. In less than 18 months, gold has doubled.

On Tuesday, the euro gained 0.7% against the dollar and gold was on pace for its best day since October. The bulls came in and tried to turn things around, but that effort flopped by noon.

What’s interesting about today’s market is that it largely continued the trend that’s been in place for several weeks. By that, I mean that Value outperformed Growth (meaning it fell by less). Low Vol beat High Beta. The Russell 2000 beat the large-cap indexes and the equal-weighted indexes held up very well.

I’m happy to report that our Buy List continues to do very well this year. On Tuesday, the Buy List outperformed the S&P 500 for the 11th time in 12 trading sessions. Rollins (ROL) was up a bit today and it reached a new 52-week high as did Casey’s (CASY) and Mueller (MLI). Comfort Systems USA (FIX) just became our first 20% winner this year.

So far, this earnings season is going mostly well for Wall Street but there have been some prominent disappointments. 3M (MMM) beat earnings by three cents but the stock got knocked for a 5% loss.

Fastenal (FAST) said its Q4 revenues were below Wall Street’s estimate. The problem is that higher tariffs inflated prices and cut demand. Fastenal is a good example of a cyclical stock. The company sells construction supplies such as fasteners, nuts, ⁠screws and bolts.

Bank stocks were nervous on Tuesday as the market was waiting on the decision by the Trump administration to impose a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. U.S. Bancorp (USB) rallied a bit after an encouraging earnings report.

For much of last year, I talked about how riskier stocks strongly outperformed more conservative investments. That gap between high-risk and low-risk performance grew exceedingly wide by late last year. So far, that trend has reversed itself and low-risk stocks are finally leading the market.

The reversal seems to have started in late October. Since then, defensive stocks have prospered. Here’s a look at the Consumer Staples (red), Healthcare (blue) and the S&P 500 (green) over the last several weeks:

It’s not much yet but this is a major departure from what we saw last year. These are typically the kinds of stocks people buy when they’re nervous about the state of the economy.

On Thursday, the government will release its first estimate for Q4 GDP growth. It could be a strong number. Traders are very optimistic. The traders at Polymarket expect growth of more than 3.5%. For 2026, traders see a 78% chance that GDP growth surpasses 2.5%.

The Federal Reserve meets again next week, and I think we can completely rule out any changes to interest rates. The Fed’s pause may not last long. Traders still see two more rate cuts coming this year. If the employment news continues to be sluggish, then we’ll certainly see the Fed come to the market’s rescue, no matter who the Fed Chair is.

Stock Focus Guidewire Software (GWRE)

One of the stocks I strongly considered for this year’s Buy List was Guidewire Software (GWRE). Even though I didn’t chose Guidewire for inclusion on our Buy List, I thought it’s worth taking a closer look.

Guidewire is a leading provider of cloud-based software solutions specifically designed for the property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry (e.g., auto, home, commercial, and other non-life insurance).

The company helps insurance carriers modernize their operations, engage customers digitally, and grow more efficiently. Their platform is used by over 570 insurers in more than 40 countries. Guidewire is the go-to platform for many P&C insurers looking to replace outdated legacy systems with modern, flexible technology. The company is based San Mateo, CA.

Guidewire had several co-founders but the most prominent is Marcus Ryu. He served as the CEO for several years and led Guidewire through its IPO in 2012.

Guidewire’s AI analytics features are deeply integrated into its P&C insurance platform (primarily through Guidewire Analytics and Guidewire Cloud), enabling insurers to embed predictive and generative AI insights directly into core workflows like underwriting, claims, pricing, and operations.

What I like about Guidewire Software is that it has a strong moat, particularly in the property and casualty (P&C) insurance software market. This is because Guidewire has “high switching costs.”

This refers to the expense that a customer faces when trying to switch from one product to another. These costs make it difficult for customers to change, even if a competitor offers a better or cheaper alternative.

High switching costs help companies retain customers, reduce churn, maintain pricing power, and deter new competitors from easily gaining market share. This is important because companies with high switching costs can often charge higher prices without losing many customers.

Guidewire is a very profitable outfit. In December, Guidewire reported fiscal Q1 earnings of 66 cents per share. That’s up from 43 cents per share one year ago. It also beat Wall Street’s consensus of 61 cents per share.

Wall Street expects Guidewire to make $2.95 per share this year and $3.86 per share in 2027.

One problem with Guidewire is that it’s overpriced. Very overpriced. That fact probably explains why the stock has not done well recently. Since October, it’s been in a nosedive. At one point, GWRE got to $272.60 in October. It touched a new 52-week low today of $154.96. That’s still 40 times next year’s earnings estimate.

I expect Guidewire to trade at a premium, but I’d prefer to see a much smaller premium. Another concern I have is that Guidewire relies too heavily on a small number of customers. Still, if business remains good and the shares become a good deal less expensive, then I think Guidewire would be an attractive investment.

That’s all for now. Expect earnings news to dominate the market this week. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: January 20, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 20th, 2026 at 7:04 am

China Reports Robust Economic Growth, Thanks to Resilient Exports

Oil Swings as Traders Weigh Greenland Crisis and Supply Outlook

Chevron’s Dilemma in Venezuela: Support Trump’s Vision Without Losing Money

An Alaska Town Is Now Key to Trump’s Global Ambitions

Trump’s First Year Could Have Lasting Economic Consequences

This Trade War Would Be Unlike Any Other

Why ‘Anti-Coercion’ Tool Is the EU’s Trade Weapon of Last Resort

Polish Central Bank Approves Plan to Buy 150 Tons of Gold

What a Break With Europe Means for the American Economy

Americans Are the Ones Paying for Tariffs, Study Finds

At a Seattle Port Rocked by Tariffs, There Were 70 Jobs for 600 Workers

Why Is Unemployment Down for Foreign-Born Workers?

Trump’s Trade Negotiator Says Response to Court Loss Would Be Immediate

Supreme Court Will Decide if Fed Independence Has Any Legal Teeth

Sudden Japan Bond Crash Unleashes Turmoil Across Trading Floors

Treasuries Join Global Bond Slide After Japan-Led Selloff

Keynes Doesn’t Gain Legitimacy During Downturns

When It’s Your Money, You Know When It’s Being Stolen

The Rise of Venture Debt, and Its Meaning for Company Founders

Trump Family’s $6.8 Billion Fortune Is Increasingly Tied to Crypto

Crypto’s Future Will Be Sabotaged by Feeble Oversight

A 1970s Babysitting Co-Op As a Metaphor for Crypto’s Future

Republicans Have Ideas on Affordability — Just Not Conservative Ones

To Make Homes Affordable Again, Someone Has to Lose Out

Go Ahead and Resent Boomers but for the Right Reasons

Warner Strikes New All-Cash Deal With Netflix

Elliott Invests in Hypersonic-Flight Company Stratolaunch

GSK to Acquire RAPT for $2.2 Billion to Bolster Food Allergy Treatments

The Rise and Fall of the American Monoculture

Can a $1,699 Espresso Machine Help Walmart Challenge Amazon?

A Global Explosion of Absurdly Spicy Foods

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Morning News: January 19, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 19th, 2026 at 7:12 am

China Reports Robust Economic Growth, Thanks to Resilient Exports

Xi’s Export Machine Gets Lift From US Move to Strongarm Allies

China’s Birthrate Plunges to Lowest Level Since 1949

Real Estate Crash Weighs on China’s Economic Growth

Hong Kong Billionaire Puts Quarter of His Wealth in Gold

Iran’s Real Oil Risk Is Labor Strikes, Not Bombs

Germany Says Trump Reached Red Line With Greenland Threat

Trump’s Realpolitik Takes Over Davos

As Davos Convenes, Deference to Trump Has Replaced Everything

Trump’s Tariffs Pose a Danger to Political and Economic Liberty

The European Goods Set to Get Hit With Trump’s Latest Tariffs

European Luxury Stocks Slump on Trump’s Tariff Threat

Europe Has the Weapons for Trump’s Greenland Tariff War

IMF Sees Stronger Growth, But Sounds Warning On Higher Tariffs And AI Correction

Has Trump Delivered on His Economic Promises?

Trump Said He’d Unleash the Economy in Year 1. Here’s How He Did.

Why Is Donald Trump The Only Villain In Jerome Powell’s Investigation?

Hohn Breaks Citadel’s Record With $18.9 Billion Trading Profit

All Bets Are On: The Rise of Prediction Markets

‘Soak the Rich’ Battle Cry is Rising From London to California

No One’s Buying? Maybe Consumers Are Just ‘Choiceful,’ Executives Say.

Economists Are Studying the Slowing Job Market—and Feeling It Themselves

We Can’t Subsidize Every Rx While Leading the World In Innovation

Extreme Volatility Returns to Europe’s Natural Gas Markets

Kidnapping and $12 Billion Battle Hang Over Conoco Return to Venezuela

Rare-Earth Magnet Maker Raises $215 Million to Amp Up U.S. Supply

Jeremy Grantham Says AI Is Indeed a Classic Market Bubble

Andreessen Horowitz Makes a $3 Billion Bet Against the AI Bubble

Micron to Buy Taiwan Plant for $1.8 Billion

Elliott Reiterates Opposition to Revised Offer for Toyota Industries

We’re in an Era of ‘Re-Globalization,’ FedEx C.E.O. Says

National Anger Spills Into Target Stores, Again

‘Heated Rivalry’ Has Given the NHL a Test

College Coaches Making $20 Million Are Football Teams’ Trophy Assets

Miami-Indiana Championship Game Has Fans Paying $30,000 a Seat

‘Masquerade’ Reimagined ‘Phantom,’ and the Fans Are Flocking

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Morning News: January 16, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 16th, 2026 at 7:03 am

Canada Inks Trade Truce With China in Break From Trump’s Agenda

China Clamps Down on High-Speed Traders, Removing Servers

China’s $1.2 Trillion Windfall Quietly Seeps Into Global Markets

The New Mayor of Davos

How to Approach the Nastiest Problem in Finance

US Economic Data Resilience Is Masking Underlying Stagflation

Fixing Inflation Policy Starts With Fixing Measurement

Powell Investigation Upends Final Stretch of Fed Chair Contest

The Turbulent Forces Reshaping The Fed This Year

Philly Fed’s Paulson Says Rate Cuts Can Wait, Shows Support for Powell

The Fed Is Flawed, Politicization Makes It Worse

Stock Investors’ Strategy for 2026: ‘Don’t Fight the White House’

Hottest Credit Markets Since ‘07 Spur Warning on Complacency

Big Plan for Fannie and Freddie I.P.O. in Flux as Trump Pushes Affordability

Saks Bonds Worth Just 1 Cent Hand Hedge Funds a Painful Lesson

Solomon Partners Taps David Shiffman to Lead Investment Banking

Why the Supreme Court Should Side With the SEC Fraudster

Stablecoin Rewards and Their Quiet Threat to Community Banking

Climate Change Exposes a Major Home Insurance Gap

State and Federal Lawmakers Want Data Centers to Pay More for Energy

Trump to Push Plan for Tech Companies to Fund New Power Plants

As Tech Giants Get More Hands-On With Energy, Their Risks Rise

Data Center Potential Will Reveal Itself Unexpectedly Over Many Decades

The 40% of US Oil Jobs Lost Over the Last Decade Aren’t Coming Back

Halliburton and Its Rivals Can’t Wait to Get Back Into Venezuela

Norway Stunned After Machado Gifts Nobel Peace Prize Medal to Trump

Inside the Fight to Keep Iran Online

Taiwan Reaches Trade Deal with Trump, Pledges More U.S. Chip Factories

NASA’s New Moon Mission Is Riskier Than It Should Be

Boston Scientific to Buy Penumbra for $15 Billion in Cash, Stock

Uber’s Quest to Crack Japan Leads Through a Rural Hot-Springs Town

Ted Sarandos Says Critics Just Misunderstand Netflix

Star Wars Gets New Leader for Franchise’s Next Era

Dos Equis Brings Back the Most Interesting Man in the World

We Went Shopping for the $3 Dinner—and Actually Found It

The Business of College Football Has Never Been More Exciting or More of a Mess

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Morning News: January 15, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 15th, 2026 at 7:03 am

The Pope and the President Offer Competing Americanisms

Leading Prediction Firms Share a Commonality: Donald Trump Jr.

Here’s the List of 75 Countries Affected by US Visa Crackdown

Welcome to Greenland, an Economy Reliant on Subsidies and Shrimp

Trump Vows to Make Venezuela Rich. It Will Take More Than U.S. Cash.

Trump Imposes Limited Tariffs on Foreign Semiconductors

Forget Trump’s Tariffs. The Real Danger Lies in China’s Trade Surplus.

If We Don’t Want the Chinese To ‘Lap’ Us, Let Them Sell To Us

Trump Picks the Wrong Time to Lie to the Public About Grocery Prices

The Poverty of Vanceonomics

Why Banks Are So Worried About a 10% Credit Card Rate Cap

Credit Card Rate Caps Will Lead To a Shortage of Credit Cards

Private Credit Drops Safeguard to Win Deals on Wall Street Terms

Trump Tells Reuters No Plans to Remove Powell Despite Probe

Let Powell and the Fed Do Their Jobs

Morgan Stanley Beats Investment-Banking Estimates on Debt Haul

Goldman Sachs’ Profit Beats Estimates on Dealmaking, Trading Strength

BlackRock Total Assets Hit Record $14 Trillion as ETFs Surge

Citi CEO Warns of More Job Cuts, Calls Time on ‘Old, Bad Habits’

2026 May Be the Year of the Mega I.P.O.

Silver Tumbles After Trump Holds Off on Critical Mineral Tariffs

Trump’s Rare Earth Push Extends Lifeline to Green Tech

TSMC’s Strong Outlook Fires Up Hopes of Sustained AI Boom

ASML Soars Above $500 Billion Value on TSMC’s Upbeat Outlook

Antitrust Law Is a Poor Substitute for Netflix Warner Brothers

How Larry Ellison Can Get Warner to Play Ball

Spotify Increases Price of Premium Subscriptions

Tesla’s Greatest Threat Is Being Boring

Generic Ozempic Makers Are Coming to Upend the Obesity Market

Humble Hershey’s Gets a Marketing Makeover

Alcohol Use May Be Declining, But We Still Want That Buzz

Amazon Blasts Saks Funding Deal, Says Equity Is ‘Worthless’

Inside the Mad Dash to Save Saks, America’s Last Luxury Retailer

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Morning News: January 14, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 14th, 2026 at 7:07 am

The World Is in the Midst of an ‘Extreme’ Temperature Spike

A Stealth Heat Tax Has Already Cost Americans $1 Trillion

U.S. Refiners to Profit as Trump Asserts Control Over Venezuelan Oil

Greenland Says It Chooses Denmark and Rules Out Joining US

Greenland Is Too Important to Invade

Caught Between Superpowers, Canada Seeks a New Path in Beijing

China Announces Record Trade Surplus as Its Exports Flood World Markets

Trump Credits ‘Mister Tariff’ for the Country’s Strength. Economists Beg to Differ.

Keep Calm If Trump Loses Tariff Case, Trade Expert Urges Nations

Here Are Trump’s Options If the Supreme Court Says His Tariffs Are Illegal

Blowback Builds Over Criminal Investigation of Powell

Trump Says Dimon ‘Wrong’ to Criticize DOJ Probe of Fed’s Powell

Trump Wants to Run the Economy Hot. There’s a Good Chance He’ll Succeed.

Blistering Metals Rally Sends Gold, Silver and Copper to Records

We Need More Stock Trading by Nancy Pelosi and Colleagues, Not Less

Credit Card Rate Caps Are Bad News for Individuals and Businesses

Banks Ready Battle Plans to Save Their Credit Card Businesses

US Mortgage Rates Slide to One of Lowest Levels Since 2022

As Trump Pushes Housing Affordability, His Mortgage Chief Undermines It

In a Risky Gambit, Trump Tries Brute Force to Lower Prices

Wall Street Is Suddenly on the Defensive With the President

BofA Tops Estimates as Trading Beats and Lending Revenue Rises

Citi’s M&A Fee Haul Surges 84% to Cap Record Dealmaking Year

Wells Fargo Profit Hit by Severance as Staff Cut by 5,600

Banks Go Silent on Trump Plan to Weaken Racism-in-Lending Rules

The New Year’s Resolutions That the Boss Has Kept

The CEO Playbook to Navigating Trump

ICE Shooting Should Be Mourned — and Investigated

This ICE Crackdown Is Making the Case for Real Immigration Reform

Where Did All the American-Born Roofers Go?

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving System Will Only Be Available Via Subscription, Musk Says

Saks Files Bankruptcy After Luxury Retailer’s Turnaround Fails

Saks’ Downfall Is a Make-or-Break Moment for Macy’s

What Does the Saks Bankruptcy Mean for Shoppers?

Delta Is on the Right Path Even If Investors Don’t See It

How Grocery Aisles Are Changing in the Age of MAHA and Ozempic

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CWS Market Review – January 13, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 13th, 2026 at 7:50 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The Fed War: Trump vs. Powell

On Sunday evening, Jerome Powell released a remarkable video message. In it, he said that the Justice Department has served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas related to Powell’s testimony before the Senate regarding renovation efforts for the Fed’s office buildings.

Powell made it clear that the issue wasn’t really about the office buildings. Instead, this was to put pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. Powell said he would fight to maintain the Fed’s independence. President Trump said he wasn’t aware of the subpoena. On Monday, gold soared to a new all-time high.

Let me add some explanation. For several years, the Fed has planned to renovate its office budlings. The buildings are close to 100 years old. Like with many things the government does, the project has run far over budget. It was originally supposed to cost $1.9 billion but that’s risen to $2.5 billion.

Last year, Powell explained that there are many reasons for the higher costs. Ironically, inflation is one issue and tariffs are another. The buildings also need to get up to modern standards regarding things like asbestos and lead, plus replacing antiquated mechanical systems.

Some of the plans called for rather opulent features like a roof garden, VIP dining rooms, excess marble and private elevators. Powell went before the Senate and said those features were either misrepresented or are no longer part of the building’s plans. The problem is that the plans Powell referenced deviate from the plans approved by the National Capital Planning Commission. As such, that would require an immediate halt to all construction.

I think DOJ’s plan is to trap Powell in either direction. Did he lie before Congress, or did he violate what was approved by the NCPC?

I’m certainly no lawyer, but that doesn’t sound like criminal behavior. Going by yesterday’s activity on social media, there seems to be a belief that Powell has been arrested for criminal fraud. That’s not the issue. Nor is it the buildings. It’s about his testimony.

Bear in mind that Powell’s term at the Fed ends in May. Technically, I’m referring to Powell’s term as Fed chair. He has a separate term as a Fed board member that goes on until 2028, but Fed chairs rarely stick around after their chairmanship ends. I’ve seen some speculation that Powell will stay on, but I doubt it.

In his video message, Powell said, “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

Many are taking Powell’s side. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who also sits on the Senate Banking Committee, said he will oppose any nominee until this matter “is fully resolved.” Tillis could bottle up any nominee in committee.

The last few Fed chairs released a statement condemning the DOJ’s action. The statement said that the move “has no place in the United States whose greatest strength is the rule of law, which is at the foundation of our economic success.” The statement was signed by former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Alan Greenspan, and by previous Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson, Timothy Geithner, Robert Rubin and Jacob Lew.

What to make of this? Frankly, I don’t see this issue going anywhere, although I think there’s a good case for lowering interest rates. The Fed may cut rates a few more times this year. Battles between presidents and the Fed are nothing new. Lyndon Johnson heavily pressured William McChesney Martin to keep rates low during the Vietnam War. Andrew Jackson hated the Second Bank of the United States and did everything he could to get rid of it. (He won.) The Trump versus Powell standoff will make some headlines, but I don’t expect anything to happen.

The Economy Created 50,000 Jobs Last Month

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the U.S. economy created 50,000 net new jobs last month. That was below Wall Street’s forecast for a gain of 73,000. The figure for November was revised downward to 56,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% which was 0.1% less than expected. The broader U-6 rate fell to 8.4%. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4%. The government now says that the economy lost 173,000 jobs in October. The previous report said it was a loss of 105,000.

Restaurant and bar jobs led the month, rising 27,000, while health care added 21,000 and social assistance increased by 17,000. Retail reported a decline of 25,000. Government added just 2,000 jobs for the month.

Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%. That matched Wall Street’s forecast. Over the last year, average hourly earnings rose by 3.8%. Last year’s jobs gain of 584,000 was the worst year outside of a recession since 2003.

On January 22, we’ll get our first report on Q4 GDP. Some folks on Wall Street expect a very strong report. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees Q4 GDP growth of 5.1% which would be very good.

Inflation Was Calm Last Month

On Thursday, the BLS said that inflation in December was slightly less than expected. For the month, headline inflation increased by 0.3%. That put the annual rate at 2.7%.

Core inflation, which doesn’t count food or energy prices, increased by 0.1% last month. That was 0.1% better than expected. Over the last year, core inflation increased by 2.6%. Shelter costs make up one-third of the CPI. Last month, shelter costs rose by 0.4%.

Food prices jumped 0.7% for the month, though egg prices tumbled 8.2% and fell nearly 21% from a year ago after soaring previously. Other areas seeing increases included recreation, airfares and medical care.

Energy prices rose 0.3% on the month and were up 2.3% from a year ago, though gasoline declined 0.5% and 3.4%, respectively.

Recreation prices increased by 1.2%. That’s the largest monthly increase for that category in over 30 years.

The Federal Reserve meets again in two weeks, and it looks like the Fed won’t make any changes to interest rates. In fact, the odds are against the Fed making any move at the meetings in March or April. Traders don’t see the Fed cutting rates until the June meeting, after Mr. Powell has left.

It’s still very early but I’m pleased to see some of our Buy List perform well in 2026. Of the eight trading days so far this year, the Buy List has outperformed the S&P 500 seven times.

Comfort Systems USA (FIX) is already a 15% winner for us this year. The shares just hit another new all-time high. SAIC (SAIC) is up more than 12% so far.

That’s all for now. This week is the start of earnings season but things won’t really get going until next week. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy