The Gold Rush of 2006
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 17th, 2006 at 7:35 am

Another reason why I’m not a gold bull: Higher prices mean more exploration.
It’s always been this way. The panic of 1893 and the Free Silver candidacy of William Jennings Bryan were eventually defeated. Not by President McKinley (or his political advisor Mark Hanna, whom Karl Rove greatly admires), but by the discovery of gold in the Klondike.

A Short Squeeze at Hansen Natural
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 17th, 2006 at 7:13 am

Last week, I discussed Hansen Natural (HANS). The stock is up over 50-fold in three years. Nearly one out of every four shares is currently being shorted. That’s astounding. A whole bunch of those shorts got “squeezed” last week.
Reuters profiles the company:

The stock of the No. 2 energy drink maker behind Austria-based Red Bull GmbH emerged as the clear winner on the Standard & Poor’s 1500 index, rising 333 percent in 2005 with an average daily share volume of more than 1 million shares.
“There’s no exact science or answer as to why we have been successful,” the South-African born Sacks told Reuters. “What we did to make ourselves different was we created an aggressive personality and in-your-face image for the brand.”

Privacy Advocates Are Concerned with Search Engine Maps
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 17th, 2006 at 6:04 am

Here’s another article about the map technology from search engines. Privacy advocates aren’t happy with the level of detail that users can see.
Google Earth is simply jaw-dropping. If you haven’t done so, I encourage you to download it. I was able to zoom in on the infields of several major league baseball stadiums.

The Scooba Robot
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 17th, 2006 at 5:39 am

iRobot’s (IRBT) vacuuming robot was a hit. Now they’re pinning their hopes on Scooba—a floor-cleaning robot:

Burlington, Mass.-based iRobot is hoping to have the kind of success with Scooba that it had with the Roomba. It has sold more than 1.5 million Roombas since the product debuted in 2002.
“It’s going to be a fun year for us,” said iRobot Chief Executive Colin Angle, “as we start to get another product under our belt launched and continue on our quest to make robots a mainstream new industry.”
To get the word out about its household robots, iRobot is funding a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign called “I Love Robots.” The campaign includes TV ads featuring real customers talking about why they love their Roombas and showing the robots at work in their homes.

Pretty cool. I’ll hold off getting one, though. My luck, I’d get some insane HAL-wannabe robot that would turn against me. Just to be safe, I’ll wait till all the kinks are worked out. You never know.

Apple is Now Bigger than Dell
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 17th, 2006 at 5:22 am

Recently, I ordered a new laptop from Dell (DELL). A few days later, a small brown box arrived. I thought “man, these laptops are getting tiny.” Then I was terrified that there might be “some assembly required.” Let’s just say that outside of gin and tonic, I don’t assemble well.
Turns out, it was a free Dell iPod which I got as part of the order. The laptop came the next day.
Just to show you the power of the Apple (AAPL) brand, I don’t even know what the Dell electronic musical device machine is called. Me? I’m calling it my Dell iPod. I think “iPod” is now the generic name as well as a brand name. As the proud owner of many shares of Dell, I have to concede that this thing is the hydrox of the industry.
Well yesterday, the UPS (UPS) guy shows up and gives me another small brown box. Lucky day! I rip it open (like I’m 12) and Ameritrade (AMTD) sent me a video iPod!
How cool is that? In no time, I went from being an iPodless American to having two iPods. Both un-frickin-expected!! I’m now a multiPod! A wePod?
I have a non-iPod iPod and a real iPod iPod.
Make that, a real VIDEO iPod.
(Update: Um…anyone how to work a video iPod? As a long-standing principle, I refuse to read directions. Ah..I’ll figure it out.)
I’m not sure why Ameritrade sent it to me. Something about a deposit. I use the service, but truthfully, I think their interface can be a bit confusing. (Yeah, I know…directions.)
Coincidentally, last week Apple Computer passed Dell in market value. Steve Jobs enjoyed a nice little in-your-face moment:

In 1997, shortly after Mr. Jobs returned to Apple, the company he helped start in 1976, Dell’s founder and chairman, Michael S. Dell, was asked at a technology conference what might be done to fix Apple, then deeply troubled financially.
“What would I do?” Mr. Dell said to an audience of several thousand information technology managers. “I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.”
On Friday, apparently savoring the moment, Mr. Jobs sent a brief e-mail message to Apple employees, which read: “Team, it turned out that Michael Dell wasn’t perfect at predicting the future. Based on today’s stock market close, Apple is worth more than Dell. Stocks go up and down, and things may be different tomorrow, but I thought it was worth a moment of reflection today. Steve.”

Michael Dell shouldn’t feel too bad. According to Forbes, his personal fortune stands at $16 billion.

Earnings Calendar
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 16th, 2006 at 10:59 pm

Fourth-quarter earnings season is about to start. Here’s a calendar for our stocks on the Buy List. Not all of the companies have said when they’re going to report, but I’ll update this as more info becomes available.

MLK Day
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 16th, 2006 at 12:22 pm

The stock market is closed today on honor of Dr. Martin Luther King. He would have turned 77 yesterday.
Here’s his “Letter from a Birmingham Jail.” To quote Keith Burgess-Jackson, “If this letter doesn’t move you to tears, you aren’t wired properly.”
I found a copy of the letter via Wikipedia. If you’re not familiar with Wikpedia, it’s an open source Web encyclopedia. Anyone can jump in and edit it. Recently, The New York Times reported that the entry for John Seigenthaler Sr., a former aide to Robert Kennedy, contained “defamatory content.” The entry was fixed, but on Wikipedia, you never know what you’re going to see.
Here’s part of the Wiki entry for Martin Luther King:

The March on Washington
King and SCLC, in partial collaboration with SNCC, then attempted to organize a march from Selma to the state capital of Montgomery, for March 25, 1963. The first attempt to march on March 7, was aborted due to mob and police violence against the demonstrators. This day since has become known as Bloody Sunday. Bloody Sunday was a major turning point in the effort to gain public support for the Civil Rights Movement, the clearest demonstration up to that time of the dramatic potential of King’s nonviolence strategy. King, however, was not present. After meeting with President Lyndon B. Johnson, he had attempted to delay the march until March 8, but the march was carried out against his wishes and without his presence by local civil rights workers. The footage of the police brutality against the protestors was broadcast extensively across the nation and aroused a national sense of public outrage.
The second attempt at the march on March 9 was ended when King stopped the procession at the Edmund Pettus Bridge on the outskirts of Selma, an action which he seemed to have negotiated with city leaders beforehand. This unexpected action aroused the surprise and anger of many within the local movement. The march finally went ahead fully on March 25, with the agreement and support of President Johnson, and it was during this march that Willie Ricks coined the phrase “Black Power” (widely credited to Stokely Carmichael).
King, representing SCLC, was among the leaders of the so-called “Big Six” civil rights organizations who were instrumental in the organization of the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom in 1963. The other leaders and organizations comprising the Big Six were: Roy Wilkins, NAACP; Whitney Young, Jr., Urban League; A. Philip Randolph, Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters; John Lewis, SNCC; and James Farmer of the Congress of Racial Equality (CORE). For King, this role was another which courted controversy, as he was one of the key figures who acceded to the wishes of President John F. Kennedy in changing the focus of the march. Kennedy initially opposed the march outright, because he was concerned it would negatively impact the drive for passage of civil rights legislation, but the organizers were firm that the march would proceed.
The march originally was conceived as an event to dramatize the desperate condition of blacks in the South and a very public opportunity to place organizers’ concerns and grievances squarely before the seat of power in the nation’s capital. Organizers intended to excoriate and then challenge the federal government for its failure to safeguard the civil rights and physical safety of civil rights workers and blacks, generally, in the South. However, the group acquiesced to presidential pressure and influence, and the event ultimately took on a far less strident tone.

That’s not correct. The march from Selma to Montgomery happened in 1965, not 1963. The text refers to Lyndon Johnson as being president, but that didn’t happen until that November.
I like Wikipedia, but it’s always good to remember that you can trust everything you see on the Web.

World to End Tomorrow; Republicans, Christians Suffer Most
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 14th, 2006 at 6:06 pm

These are heady days for the Apocalypse biz. The latest offering in the “we’re all doomed” genre is The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century by James Howard Kunstler.
Yikes! Even the title scares me. I thought I was pretty immune to this stuff, but Kunstler takes his end-is-nigh riff to another level. His outlook is so bleak, he makes Thomas Malthus look like Barney the Dinosaur. This is Joe Kaplinsky‘s review:

The picture of the future put forward in The Long Emergency is truly grim. The best-case scenario is a mass die-off followed by a forced move back to the land, complete with associated feudal relations. As the title implies, this is to be an ongoing state rather than a crisis to be overcome – a sentiment that the US critic Susan Sontag described as ‘apocalypse from now on’. How bad will it be? ‘The prospect will be so grim that some individuals and perhaps even groups (as in nations) may develop all the symptoms of suicidal depression.’

By going extinct, Barney’s pals may have gotten off light. But before you go snapping up shares of Soylent Green Ltd. (PEPL), it’s worth remembering that these books often tell us less about the future, and more about the present.

Apparently, those who will suffer most terribly in the long emergency are the US Republican states whose culture is built on violence and fundamentalist Christianity. Neighbourhoods with spacious housing (‘McMansions’) and ‘poor street detailing’, a particular insult to Kunstler, are singled out for destruction. Europeans, by contrast, may pull through in better shape. There is an uncanny alignment between the supposedly objective, inevitable laws of nature and Kunstler’s prejudices. Perhaps the best summary of his views is found in the book’s epigraph: ‘I don’t know if the Gods exist, but they sure act as if they do.’

These Apocalypse books seem to be cyclical. Every few years, we’re about to hit a new calamity; global warming, famine, oil depletion, obesity, global cooling, Barbara Walters. It’s hard to keep it all straight.
The Stalwart points to a NYT article highlighting the fact that sometime this October, the U.S. population will pass the 300 million mark. The article notes that in 1967, when we topped 200 million, David E. Lilienthal, the former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, said, “a population of at least 300 million by 2000 will, I now believe, threaten the very quality of life of individual Americans.”
I’m not so sure he got that one right. But hey, it’s not the end of world.
A more responsible view is offered by Alfred Crosby. His book, “Children of the Sun: A History of Humanity’s Unappeasable Appetite for Energy,” manages to look at our energy problems without scare-mongering. Peter Pettus reviews the book in the New York Sun:

As “Children of the Sun” begins to address this daunting issue, we are grateful to find ourselves in the company of grown-ups. This is our crunch time, and what we need is rational and realistic discussion instead of hysteria and panic. It is true that the fossil-fuel game is winding down. There may still be a lot of oil and natural gas in the ground; the problem is that the amount of energy expended to procure it is creeping up to the amount of energy gained. What are our other options?
Hydrogen fuel cell technology looks terrific, but the problem here is the energy cost of procuring the hydrogen in the first place. “In order to provide the electricity needed to pry loose enough hydrogen to meet its full requirements, the United States would need 400 gigawatts (400 billion watts) of electricity in addition to what it already generates. “This is a virtual impossibility. “The alternative is to utilize a new and very powerful prime mover that doesn’t pollute,” Mr. Crosby tells us. “It already exists: the nuclear reactor waits at our elbow like a superb butler.”
This may be true, but many people, especially here in the United States, are fearful. After Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, the domestic nuclear power plant was practically finished. Whereas France obtains around 80% of its power from nukes, we get only 20%. “This subject,” Mr. Crosby reminds us, “which arouses fear, anger and panic, requires cool and careful analysis.” This he provides with a calm assessment of both the real dangers of nuclear plants (highly exaggerated), as well as the costs of decommissioning plants and storing wastes. It is increasingly clear that in spite of the drawbacks of fission reactors, they must now be built because no feasible alternative exists.

Good Riddance to Traditional Pensions
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 14th, 2006 at 11:10 am

In the wake of IBM (IBM) doing away with its pension plan, James Glassman says, “good riddance.”

Lee Conrad, a labor organizer, said after the IBM news: “Employees are going to be losing out on all kinds of benefits. You’ve got to wonder what’s going to happen to the next generation of workers.”
No, you don’t. A study released last September by the Employee Benefit Research Institute and the Investment Company Institute found that Americans do a fine job with their 401(k) plans. Even with the rotten stock-market conditions of the early 2000s, the average account balances of 401(k) participants rose about 40 percent, to $91,000. And remember, these workers still have two decades to retirement.

Guidant Accepts J&J’s Offer
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 14th, 2006 at 11:05 am

It’s finally over. Guidant (GDT) will go with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) for $71 a share. Both boards still need to approve the deal. I guess the hedge funds aren’t powerful as everyone thought. In the end, all Boston Scientific (BSX) did was make a bad deal cost more money.