CWS Market Review – October 14, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 14th, 2025 at 6:05 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

In recent issues, I’ve talked about how placid the stock market has been. The S&P 500 just ran off 34 days in a row without a 1% change. That’s the longest such streak in nearly 50 years.

Well, that all came to a crashing end on Friday when the stock market fell 2.7% on news of the Trump administration’s tariff threats.

Interestingly, Friday’s stock drop had a huge divide between—exactly what we’ve been talking about—High Beta and Low Vol stocks. On Friday, the High Beta sector fell about 5% while the Low Vol sector was largely flat. That’s a huge gap.

I knew there was going to be a rotation, but I had no idea when. I’m not ready to proclaim this as the start of a Low Vol rally, but it shows these exact tensions within the market. The High Beta stocks performed well as long as the market did well, and the market did well as long as the economic news was positive.

Investors need to understand how much of the rally has been placed on the shoulders of just a few stocks.

Q3 Earnings Begins

Today was also the first big day of Q3 earnings season. The big banks went first and it looks like Q3 was a good one for Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs (GS) said it made $12.25 per share which beat estimates for $11 per share. That’s an increase of 37% over last year. Revenues climbed 20% to $15.18 billion. That beat estimates for $14.1 billion. Goldman’s investment banking fees increased 42% to $2.66 billion.

One weak spot was Goldman’s equity trading division. Sales rose 7% to $3.74 billion, which was $160 million below the estimate. Revenue at Goldman’s fixed income division rose 17% to $3.47 billion. That topped estimates by $289 million.

Goldman’s stock has done well this year, but the stock fell a little bit in today’s trading.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said its Q3 profit rose 12% to $14.39 billion, or $5.07 per share. That beat estimates of $4.84 per share. JPM’s revenues increased 9% to $47.12 billion compared with expectations of $45.4 billion.

I was impressed by JPM’s trading segments. For Q3, JPMorgan’s trading division had revenues of $8.9 billion. Fixed-income trading grew 21% to $5.6 billion. That’s about $300 million more than expected. Equity trading rose 33% to $3.3 billion. That also beat estimates.

JPM’s provision for credit losses rose 9% to $3.4 billion. The estimate was for $3.08 billion. This suggests the banks are getting ready for more defaults.

It appears that the tariff uncertainty has benefited Wall Street. CEO Jamie Dimon said, “While there have been some signs of a softening, particularly in job growth, the U.S. economy generally remained resilient.”

Citigroup (C) has had a very good year and today we saw why. Citi said it made $2.24 per share which beat estimates of $1.90 per share. That’s up 15% over last year. Revenue rose 9% to $22.09 billion which was $1 billion more than expected.

The bank continues to do well. For Q3, Citi’s banking revenues rose 34%. The bank’s services division had revenue growth of 7%. Also, Citi’s market segment posted a revenue increase of 15%.

Shares of BlackRock (BLK) rose to a new all-time high today. The company is the largest money manager in the world. It now has assets under management of $13.46 trillion. That’s up 17% in the last year.

For the quarter, BLK made $11.55 per share which beat Wall Street’s forecast. The shares rallied to a new all-time high.

Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) rallied more than 7% after the bank reported solid earnings for its Q3. The Federal Reserve lifted WFC’s asset cap of $1.95 trillion. Since 2019, Wells has closed 13 consent orders. It still has one more to go.

CEO Charlie Scharf said, “We are now on a path to grow more broadly with the lifting of the asset cap. “The bank raised its ROE target from 15% to 17% to 18%. WFC’s Q3 profit rose to $5.59 billion, or $1.66 per share. The consensus on Wall Street was for earnings of $1.55 per share.

Wells’s provision for credit losses dropped to $681 million from $1.07 billion last year. WFC’s investment banking fees jumped 25% to a record of $840 million.

Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will report earnings tomorrow.

We’ll also get our first Buy List stock to report earnings tomorrow. Abbott Labs (ABT) is due to report its Q3 earnings before the market opens. I’m curious to hear what Abbott has to say because this is a good company, but the stock has lagged the market for more than five years.

I was happy to see ABT get a boost last summer, but that eventually petered out by the spring. I suspect that a lot of ABT’s lagging is due to it being a healthcare stock. When your sector is out of favor on Wall Street, it’s hard to do well. Abbott has been outperforming healthcare recently.

For Q3, ABT said it expects earnings between $1.28 and $1.32 per share. The consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of $1.30 per share, the exact midpoint. I think Abbott will beat that.

For Q2, Abbott made $1.26 per share, which beat Wall Street’s consensus by one penny per share. Management had told us to expect earnings between $1.23 and $1.27 per share.

Abbott’s Q2 sales were up 7.4% to $11.14 billion, which beat estimates of $11.07 billion. If we only look at organic sales, Q2 sales were up by 6.9%, and if we exclude Covid-related items, sales were up 7.5%.

Abbott sees full-year profits ranging between $5.10 and $5.20 per share. That’s down from the company’s previous guidance of $5.15 to $5.25 per share.

Last year, Abbott made $4.67 per share. That means that at the midpoint of this year’s guidance, Abbott expects double-digit earnings growth.

60 Minutes and 1929

This past weekend, 60 Minutes did a story on the stock market and its resemblance to 1929. These stories annoy me, and I think they’re a disservice to investors.

The 60 Minutes story seems to be a backdoor marketing video for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book, 1929.

The gist of the piece is that we’re in a stock market bubble and it’s very similar to the events of—you guessed it—1929.

I hate that this even needs to be said, but the current market isn’t anything like the market of 1929. Just as a reminder, the stock market fell 89% from top to bottom. That’s what we’re talking about when we compared us to 1929.

Many more Americans are invested in the stock market than was the case 100 years ago. There’s no gold standard today. No fixed commissions. There’s a global economy. We have deposit insurance. During the Great Depression, the unemployment rate reached 25%. Today it’s just over 4%.

Bear markets happen. We even had a brief one earlier this year. That’s part of investing. That’s quite a different thing from 1929.

What I find especially annoying is that these stories give the appearance of saying something when they’re not really saying anything. The commentators are careful not to predict anything. No one goes on record. Instead, they say they’re “concerned” about something ominous, but they’re lacking in details.

Here’s a snippet from the broadcast:

Andrew Ross Sorkin: The crazy part about this is from 1928 to September 1929, the stock market was up 90%.

Lesley Stahl: When you say the stock market was way up, immediately I think of now. Are you scared? (We’re not up 90%. Six months ago, the market lost 12% in four days. – Eddy)

ARS: I’m anxious. I’m anxious that we are at prices that may not feel sustainable and what I don’t know is we are either living through some kind of remarkable boom and part of that artificial intelligence and technology and all of that or everything is overpriced. (Then prices come down. It’s not a big deal. – Eddy)

LS: Or we’re reliving…

ARS: …1929.

Oh, brother. Nice leading question there. I agree that things are pricey and I’ve said so, but how exactly are we reliving 1929? Notice how Sorkin says he’s anxious. So what? All investors should be anxious to some extent.

Later Stahl Lesley tells us, “People who didn’t really have much money were lured by Wall Street bankers to invest using a newfangled concept to take on debt called credit.”

I hate to break it to you, Lesley, but credit has been around for a long, long time, and so has margin buying.

The story then takes an expected turn into crypto and lets us know that some meme coins coin may not be 100% above board.

“LS: Do you think that we will have a crash, or not?

ARS: The answer is, we will have a crash. I just can’t tell you when and I can’t tell you how deep. But I can assure you – unfortunately, I wish I wasn’t saying this – we will have a crash.”

Let’s see if I have this right. I assure you that something will happen at some time, but I can’t say what, when or how bad it will be. This tells you nothing about being an investor.

That’s all for now. The retail sales report is due out on Thursday, but it looks like we won’t get it thanks to the shutdown. The inflation report is out next Friday, the 24th, and that also looks to be in jeopardy. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 14, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 14th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Trump Bets on Argentina Again After First-Term Bailout Blew Up

How China and the U.S. Are Racing to De-Escalate the Trade War

China Escalates US Trade Fight With Curbs on Shipping

From Ships to Spreads, There Are Growing Signs the Oil Surplus Has Arrived

U.S. Starts Charging Chinese Ships to Dock at Its Ports

Highest US Tariffs Since the 1930s Redraw the International Trade Map

Trump Ramps Up Trade War as Tariffs on Lumber and Furniture Kick In

The Great Debasement Debate Is Rippling Across Global Markets

America Must Avoid a European Regulatory Fate

Trump’s ‘Flood the Zone’ Strategy Also Involves a Lot of Mopping Up

Major Media Outlets Rebuff New Pentagon Press Policy

US Shutdown Threatens to Erode Quality of Important Inflation Data

Why Silver Has Been Surging Even More Than Gold

JPMorgan Traders, Bankers Beat Estimates as Dealmaking Picks Up

Goldman Dealmakers Drive Bank to Record Third Quarter Revenue

Wells Fargo Boosts Key Profitability Metric as Asset Cap Removed

Citi Revenue Beats in Every Division as Compensation Costs Climb

The Banker Behind the Trumps’ Quick Wall Street Wins

JPMorgan Says US Needs Renewables to Meet Rising Energy Demand

Renewable Energy Is Booming Despite Trump’s Efforts to Slow It

US Lumber Giants Agree to Combine in $7.1 Billion Deal

Cobalt Rally Risks Pushing Away Battery Makers, Top Miner Says

GM Takes $1.6 Billion Charge on Trump-Induced Pullback From EVs

Ford Cuts Production of Five Trucks, SUVs After Fire at Aluminum Supplier

Boeing, Airbus Deliveries Face ‘Unprecedented’ Delay, Buyers Say

The AI Future You Want Depends on These Questions

China’s AI Dragons Must Survive ‘Involution’ to Conquer the World

The Solution to Europe’s AI Problem Is Hiding in Plain Sight

AI’s Copyright War Could Be Its Undoing. Only the US Can End It.

NaturalCycles Mulls New Round Bigger Than Prior $55 Million

Inside Advertising’s Most Grueling New Genre: ‘You Have to Have Zero Social Anxiety’

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Morning News: October 13, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 13th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Creative Destruction Theorists Win Nobel Prize for Economics

Trump and Xi Trigger Another Standoff With World Economy at Risk

Trump’s Fresh Tariff Assault Threatens China’s Fragile Economy

Cars to Fighter Jets: China’s New Export Curbs May Level a Heavy Blow Worldwide

Argentina’s Economy Chief Says US Willing to Keep Buying Pesos

America Is Getting Used to Broken Government

Furloughed Federal Workers Turn to Side Hustles to Survive Shutdown

Troops May Miss First Paychecks Wednesday as Shutdown Drags On

Stronger Growth, Weaker Hiring: Forecasters See a Split-Screen Economy

A Zombie Economy Could Be America’s Future

From Tricolor to Saks, Bonds Are Now Crashing at Breakneck Speed

Silver Roars Higher as Short Squeeze Rocks the London Market

This Market Is Nothing Like the Dot-Com Bubble

The Rules of Investing Are Being Loosened. Could It Lead to the Next 1929?

Brookfield Said Near $3 Billion Deal for Remaining Oaktree Stake

Labor Unions Are Chipping Away at Worker Freedoms One Bill at a Time

The EU Has To Get Real If Europe Is To Matter In AI

Squeezing Builders Isn’t the Way to Lower Housing Costs

The Former Banker Betting on Unprofitable Business of Flood Insurance

US Power-Demand Boom Poses Hard Choices for Utilities

Technip Energies CEO Says US LNG Projects Can Skirt Chinese Yards

Citadel Boosts European Power Trading With Purchase of FlexPower

GM’s Rare-Earth Gamble Pays Off as China Tightens Magnet Exports

He Won the $2 Billion Powerball. Now He’s Buying Up Lots Burned in the L.A. Fires.

JPMorgan to Invest $10 Billion in U.S. Companies Critical to National Security

Factory Towns Revive as Defense Tech Makers Arrive

Behind the Collapse of an Auto-Parts Giant: $2 Billion Hole and Mysterious CEO

Trump Turns His Sights on Aluminum in Vaccines

A Case for Vaping Freedom As the Path to Economic Revival

Paramount Circling Warner Bros. Discovery After Rebuffed Approach

What’s the Deal With All Those FanDuel Ads?

Inside the World’s Most Powerful High School Cafeteria

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Morning News: October 10, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 10th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Why China Built 162 Square Miles of Solar Panels on the World’s Highest Plateau

Germany’s Top Economist Charts a Path Out of Europe’s Crisis

Bessent’s Big Gamble on Argentina Has a Narrow Road to Pay Off

Big Investors Await Windfall From Trump’s Argentina Bailout

After $12 Billion Bond Losses, Japanese Bank at Risk Again From US Firm’s Bankruptcy

The Big Dollar Short Is Becoming a Pain Trade for Investors

Did Wall Street Just Admit It’s a Casino After All?

What’s the Difference Between the NYSE and Polymarket Anyway?

Ray Dalio Warns of Soaring Debt and ‘Civil War’ Brewing in US

Gold Boom Swells Indian Household Stock to Almost $3.8 Trillion

Riding the Wild Wave of Crypto Coverage

Crypto Investor Known as ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ Reaches Deal With Prosecutors

Inside Hegseth’s Effort to Limit Press Access at the Pentagon

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

Shutdown Pain Ripples Through US Economy With No Deal in Sight

Federal Government Recalls Workers to Produce Key Inflation Report

Sorry Keynesians, Housing Has Nothing To Do With Economic Growth

Americans Are Falling Behind on Their Car Payments

Have You Hugged Your Job Today?

Jack Dorsey’s Block Targets Card Network Fees in Latest Push

America’s Manufacturing Resurgence Will Be Powered by These Robots

China Targets Qualcomm, US Ships as Xi and Trump Seek Leverage

Intel Got a Trump Bump. Now It Has to Capitalize on It.

Tesla Self-Driving Technology Breaks Traffic Laws. Can the Feds Stop It?

Tesla’s China Shipments Rise at Start of Busy Sales Season

Tricolor’s Busted Money Machine Has Wall Street Rethinking Risks

Can These Self-Flying Planes Transform the Skies?

Delta Predicts Premium Seat Sales to Overtake Economy as Soon as 2026

Pfizer’s Deal on Drug Prices Gets Closer to the Right Idea

Lay’s Chips Are Getting a Makeover for the MAHA Era

If an Energy Drink Drank an Energy Drink, You’d Get a Celsius

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Morning News: October 9, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 9th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Troubled Wind Developer Orsted to Cut 25% of Staff

How Trump’s Green Hydrogen Cuts Are Opening the Door for China

China Clamps Down Even Harder on Rare Earths

G20’s Cross-Border Payments Push Set to Miss 2027 Target

German Exports Unexpectedly Fell in August as Uncertainty Weighed

Gold’s Record Rally Is Helping China Challenge Trump and the Dollar

Rising Call-Option Demand Signals EM Local-Currency Bond Gains

JPMorgan CEO Dimon Warns of US Stock Market Correction Risk

Mixed Economic Signals Stoke Divisions at Fed, Minutes Show

A Top Fed Official Favors More Interest Rate Cuts

The CFPB Is a Failed Experiment In One-Sided Anti-Business Policy

US Banks to Reap Bigger Profits as Deals Rebound in Third Quarter

This Isn’t the Asset Boom Voters Wanted

Dudley: AI Can Transform the Economy and Still Be a Bubble

‘I Believe It’s a Bubble’: What Some Smart People Are Saying About AI

Reflection AI, an A.I. Model Start-Up, Raises $2 Billion

The Soaring Cost of America’s Failed Export Strategy

Robinhood Founders Join World’s Richest in Risky Trading Revival

First Brands’ Go-To Bank Jefferies Opens Books as Fallout Builds

Air Travel Disruptions Add Pressure on Congress for Shutdown Deal

$100,000 H-1B Visa Fees Are a Distraction From Real Reform

America Is Minting Lots of Cash-Strapped Millionaires

Can Ferrari Persuade the Superrich to Buy an EV Sports Car That Won’t Rev?

GM Backs Off Controversial EV Tax Credit Move

Who’s Going to ‘Eat’ Tariffs? Not US Shoppers

End the Realtor Tax To Ease America’s Housing Problems

Close Brothers Warns of Higher Provision for Motor Finance Costs

An Irish Factory Town Prospered With China. Now, Its ‘Jewel in the Crown’ Is Leaving.

PepsiCo Sees Signs of US Beverage Turnaround Driven by Soda

Shoemakers Target a New Market: Rest Days

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Morning News: October 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 8th, 2025 at 7:05 am

EU Sees New US Trade Demands Hollowing Out Trump Deal

Argentina Pulls Out All Stops in Milei’s Defense of Fragile Peso

Canada Goods-Trade Deficit Widens as Exports Retreat

America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over the Loss of Chinese Buyers

North America’s China Problem Is Bigger Than It Looks

White House Says Federal Workers’ Back Pay During Shutdown Isn’t Guaranteed

The Shutdown Is Already Squeezing These Businesses

Gold Tops $4,000 for First Time Fueled by US Shutdown

Gold Rally Points to Eroding Faith in Central Banks Worldwide

If They Offer ‘Rewards’ For Deposited Stablecoins, Aren’t They Banks?

Lehman’s London Arm Can Close After 17 Years and £28 Billion

First Comes Dimon’s New Tower. Next Up, a JPMorgan Neighborhood

Comerica’s Sale to Fifth Third Is a Rare Win for Bank Activists

The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It’s Rough Out There

A Corporate Tax Increase Would Bring Back the Inversions

Why You Don’t Feel Rich

Homeowners Are Pouncing on the Tiniest Drop in Mortgage Rates

Thin Air-Traffic Staffing Spurs Delays at U.S. Airports

Trump’s H-1B Visa Fee Could Strain Universities and Schools

Threats Against Judges Have Crossed the Line

Why Diamonds Are a Computer Chip’s New Best Friend

Drilling Frenzy Arrives in Canada’s Pristine Wilderness

Dig, Baby, Dig Won’t Solve AI’s Power Shortage

Trump’s Coal Plan Is Doomed

AI Power Boom Turns Nuclear Stocks Into the Market’s New Obsession

OpenAI, Nvidia Fuel $1 Trillion AI Market With Web of Circular Deals

AMD’s Su Joins the Party With OpenAI for Better or Worse

Hyundai Gets Cold Shoulder From Trump Despite Charm Offensive

How Much It Costs to Drive an E.V. and a Gas Car in Every State

Tesla Debuts Cheaper, Stripped-Down Versions of Model 3 and Model Y

Jefferies Has $161 Million at Risk in First Brands Collapse

Advertisers Push Big Tech to Adopt Standards for Transparency in Ad Sales

Ronaldo Becomes First Football Billionaire With Big Saudi Contract

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CWS Market Review – October 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 7th, 2025 at 6:24 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

On Tuesday, the stock market snapped its seven-day winning streak. This was the market’s longest winning streak since a nine-day run this spring. Perhaps the government should shut down more often!

For much of the morning, it looked like we were headed toward another up day, but the bears charged in and brought stock prices down. Interestingly, this was a day where defensive stocks did the best, and higher risk trailed the market.

It seems like it was years ago, but the market had a very rough time this past April. Not only did the S&P 500 have its largest daily point gain, but it also had three of its six largest daily point losses. This spring was one of the most raucous periods in recent market history, and it ended exactly six months ago today.

The current market isn’t anything like that. In fact, I continue to be impressed by how serene this market has been. Consider that from January 1 to June 16, the S&P 500 had 22 daily drops of more than 0.8%. Since then, it’s happened once.

It’s not just stocks that are rallying. The price of gold soared over $4,000 per ounce for the first time. Adjusted for inflation, gold is higher now than it was at its mega-peak from 35 years ago.

The Midas metal is on pace for its best year since 1979. This could be the third straight year of double-digit gains for gold. The gold rally may not be over. Goldman Sachs said gold will reach $4,900 per ounce before the end of next year.

Historically, gold has tended to move in two speeds: relentlessly higher and plunging downward. I’m exaggerating, but gold does tend run either hot or cold and not much in between. Right now, it’s hot.

Gold is certainly being helped by the Federal Reserve which is expected to continue cutting interest rates. Also, the U.S. dollar has slumped this year. Other safe investments like the Japanese yen have lost ground recently.

Gold now trades at 81 times silver. The gold/silver ratio is one of the oldest prices known to man. It’s been followed since antiquity. Plato mentioned that the ratio was 12-to-1.

In 1792, the U.S. Congress, at the advice of Alexander Hamilton, passed the Coinage Act of 1792. This was the government’s first attempt at price-fixing (and not the last). The act defined a U.S. dollar as 371.25 grams of silver or 24.75 grams of gold. In other words, Hamilton pegged the Gold/Silver ratio at 15. In 1834, Congress had to bump it up to 16. During Covid, the ratio got as high as 120.

We continue to be in an oddly news-free zone for Wall Street. Many of the important economic reports have been delayed due to the government shutdown. On Friday, for example, we didn’t get the big September jobs report.

The CPI report is due out next Wednesday, October 15, and that looks like it will be delayed as well. I don’t expect the government shutdown to last much longer than two or three weeks, but with politics involved, you never know what can happen.

Going by history, investors have little to worry about in a government shutdown. It’s odd how much attention we give these reports, even when they’re endlessly revised. Without the reports, the market appears to be doing just fine.

One agency that’s not impacted by the shutdown is the Federal Reserve. If you’re a fan of speeches by Fed officials, this is your lucky week. Five Fed officials gave public talks about the economy today. Another five will speak tomorrow, and a few more will speak on Thursday including Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell. We’ll also get the minutes to the Fed’s last meeting.

We’re getting close to the start of Q3 earnings season. The stock market will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day, but on Tuesday we’ll start to get some early earnings reports.

The big banks and financial institutions usually report first. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan and BlackRock are set to report. Then on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will report.

I’m expecting a mostly positive earnings season. The big concern for Wall Street isn’t so much the earnings for Q3 but rather what kind of guidance companies are willing to offer. This is especially important during the shutdown. I’m concerned that companies won’t be as optimistic as expected. The tariffs and labor market could be hurting the bottom line more than people expect.

I want to discuss a topic I’ve touched on before, but it’s worth covering again because of its importance. The current market rally has been strongly skewed away from more conservative areas of the market.

In previous issues, I’ve refenced how Low Volatility stocks have trailed the market, but the real driver of this phenomenon is the under-performance of defensive sectors of the market. More specifically, I mean the lagging performance of Healthcare stocks, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

The chart below is a 25-year look at the relative performance of Healthcare (black), Staples (blue) and Utilities (brown):

Note how closely these three sectors follow each other. The correlation isn’t perfect, but it’s apparent even over a long period. I’m struck by how poorly these stocks have performed over the last three years. It seems that owning stability isn’t terribly important to investors right now.

Healthcare stocks rebounded a bit recently. On our Buy List, we had a nice 18% gain from Thermo Fisher (TMO) in just a few days.

Normally, investors favor the reliability of these stocks. The sales, earnings and dividends tend be very stable. That’s nice to see when the economy is falling apart. Notice how well all three lines did around 2007 to 2009.

While the economy isn’t falling apart, there are signs that it may not be doing as well as some people think. For example, if we look at Gross Output, which is a broader measure of the economy, we get a very different picture. During Q2, Gross Output rose at a 1.2% rate while GDP grew at a 3.8% rate.

Why is there such a discrepancy between the two stats? GDP tends to be consumer oriented while Gross Output is more focused on businesses. Dr. Mark Skousen, perhaps the leading advocate for Gross Output, said “the trade war is in fact wreaking economic havoc.”

Skousen’s wrote in the WSJ:

“If you include all transactions in wholesale and retail trade, the adjusted GO is up only 0.3%. More important, I calculate that overall business spending fell sharply, by an annualized 5.6% in real terms. For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, we are seeing a huge gap between consumer and business spending. While consumption is still robust (up a real 2.6%), business is pulling in its horns, largely due to higher tariffs and the uncertainty of trade war.”

The Trump administration said it’s buying $34.5 million in Trilogy Metals (TMQ), which is a Canadian mining company. That’s a stake worth 10% of the company. Shares of TMQ jumped 211% today. Not bad for one day.

The government has warrants to buy another 7.5%. The goal is to reduce our reliance on China for important minerals.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 7th, 2025 at 7:05 am

China Is Joining Russia’s Shadow War on Europe

Can Canada Survive Donald Trump?

Gas-Turbine Crunch Threatens Demand Bonanza in Asia

France’s Energy Giant Sees Opportunity in the Volatile Electricity Market

Ray Dalio Bets on Ocean Research With Singapore Venture

IEA Cuts U.S. Renewable Energy Growth Outlook on Trump Policies

New Zealand Central Bank Creates Board to Manage Financial Stability Issues

The Markets Keep Telling Us the National Debt Is the Easy Part

The Market Is Better Than Government at Promoting Competition

NYSE Owner Near Deal for $2 Billion Stake in Polymarket

Citadel’s Griffin Calls Rush to Gold as Safer Asset ‘Concerning’

Private Credit Cash Pivots from ‘Risky’ West to Emerging Markets

Stablecoins Could Suck $1 Trillion from EM Banks in Next Three Years, Standard Chartered Estimates

Charlie Javice Duped JPMorgan Out of $175 Million. The Bank is Picking Up Her Legal Tab

Trump’s Third Policy Pillar, Deregulation, Divides Economists

Bessent Taps Social Security Chief to Serve as C.E.O. of I.R.S.

Treasury Defends Lawfulness of Minting a $1 Trump Coin

Pentagon Relaxes Press Access Rules

Trump Aimed Shutdown Cuts at Democrats, but G.O.P. Districts Are Hit, Too

Trump Opens Door to Talks GOP Has Resisted as Shutdown Extends

Trump to Unveil Farmer Aid as China Shuns U.S. Crops

Tariffs Don’t Build Factories, They Make Patients Pay More

The White House’s Drug Plan Has Some Convenient Blind Spots

OpenAI Launches Into Its Boring Is Beautiful Phase

Japanese Startup Shows AI in a Name Is No Guarantee of Success

Recruiters Use A.I. to Scan Résumés. Applicants Are Trying to Trick It.

Supreme Court, for Now, Rejects Google Bid to Block Changes to App Store

Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern Will Be An Energy, Prosperity Boost

Car Shipper Hoegh Drops on Weaker Trade and Port Fee Warning

A Devastating Fire at a Major Ford Supplier Will Disrupt Business for Months

Corporate Anxiety Is Fueling a Multimillion-Dollar Industry of Gen Z Translators

U.S. Warehouse Vacancies Steady as Demand Rises With Less New Space

Retailers Stockpiled to Avoid Tariffs. The Holidays Will Put That to the Test.

How Bari Weiss Won

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Morning News: October 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 6th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Takaichi Win Jolts Yen and Japanese Bonds, Triggers Stock Surge

Top Fund Managers Urge Bank of England to Stop Selling Gilts Into Rocky Debt Markets

French Markets Fall, Investors See No ‘Silver Bullet’ for Political Crisis

French and German Power Prices Hit Seven-Month High on Cold Snap

OPEC+ Differences Re-Emerge Amid Growing Signs of Oil Surplus

The Oil Market’s 2026 Tsunami Will Be Costly to Finance

The US Needs Better Ways to Defend Against Drones

Is the Retirement Crisis Really a Disability Crisis?

That ‘Landmark’ Free Speech Ruling Misses the Point

Why Are Indian-Americans So Silent on US Visa Curbs?

Trump’s Team Hones Message on Economy: Just Wait Until 2026

A Renegade FTC Undermines the Trump Agenda

If Trump’s Tariffs Are Ruled Illegal, Businesses Expect Refund Chaos

Gold, Bitcoin Surge on Concerns Over Global Debt Pile

Gold Powers Toward $4,000 as US Government Shutdown Drags On

The Battle to Rewire Stock Trading the Crypto Way Is On

Ferrari-Loving Trader Burned Wall Street With Bond Bet Leveraged 11,000-to-1

Fifth Third Agrees to Buy Comerica for $10.9 Billion in Stock

Take Two: Why Big Companies Are Naming Co-C.E.O.s

Big Debt Deals Throw Fuel on the AI Boom

OpenAI Inks AMD Chips Deal Worth Tens of Billions of Dollars

Elon Musk Gambles Billions in Memphis to Catch Up on AI

Shareholders Are Right To Ask Microsoft Questions

Boeing Said to Prepare to Hike 737 Output as Soon as October

Why Did Walmart Just Buy a Shopping Mall?

Costco to Sell Popular Weight-Loss Drugs Ozempic and Wegovy

New ALS Research Vindicates a 92-Year-Old Trailblazer

Sharpie Found a Way to Make Pens More Cheaply—By Manufacturing Them in the U.S.

High-End Golf’s Next Unlikely Impresario May Be a Baseball Star

‘Call Her Daddy’ Podcaster Alex Cooper Opens an Unwell Ad Agency

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Morning News: October 3, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 3rd, 2025 at 7:03 am

Why the Thai Baht Is Defying Economic Gravity

The Engines of Iranian Economic Growth Have Stalled

Merz Urges Germans to Accept Change or Suffer Economic Slide

ECB Should Cut Rates to Boost Economy, Italy’s Finance Chief Says

The Iowa Immigration Case That Is a Bipartisan Embarrassment

Conservatives Go John Maynard Keynes With Their Birthrate Obsession

Trump’s Spat With US Schools Revs Up Qatar’s Emerging Hub

Trump Halts $2 Billion for Chicago Transit in Shutdown Play

Trump’s Budget Chief, Slayer of Big Government, Moves Quickly in Shutdown

The Jobs Report That Wasn’t Leaves Economists Guessing

It’s Jobs Friday Without a Jobs Number: Here’s Where to Look for Alternatives

Dudley: Maybe the Fed Shouldn’t Be Cutting Interest Rates

Private Equity Is Hunting for a Quicker Path to Tap 401(k) Money

Vanguard Rivals Finally Get Hands On Its Tax-Busting Fund Design

Behind Job Weakness Are Hints of a Productivity Revival. Is AI the Reason?

BlackRock Nears $40 Billion Data Center Deal in Bet on AI

A.I. Is Driving a Stock Market Rally in China, Too

Two Cables and the Hidden Subsea Battle Between US and China

We Finally Have Free Anti-Robocall Tools That Work

Apple Takes Down ICE Tracking Apps Amid Trump Pressure Campaign

Colombia’s Petro Keeps Showing How Not to Handle the US

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Comes to the Aid of Occidental Petroleum—Again

Tesla Sets New Sales Record as EV Subsidy Ends

Musk Can Cheer the End of EV Subsidies This Once

Boeing Likely to Record Billions in Charges Over 777X Debut Delay

Cracker Barrel Drops Firm Behind Ill-Fated Logo Change

Hell Hath No Fury Like a Coffee Drinker in 2025

Ice-Cream Maker Froneri Hits $17.6 Billion Valuation in Funding Deal

Why America’s Fridges Are Overflowing With Sauce

Video Games Have Become the Main Way Boys Socialize. Is That Bad?

Buying Blind-Box Toys Is All the Rage. Our Simulation Shows How Addictive It Is.

L.A.’s Entertainment Economy Is Looking Like a Disaster Movie

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