Morning News: October 2, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 2nd, 2025 at 7:03 am

Japan’s Sleepy $8 Trillion Bond Market Wakes Up as Yields Climb

EU Risk Watchdog Calls for Urgent Safeguards on Stablecoins

EU to Propose Doubling Tariff Rate on Steel Imports to 50%

White House Uses Shutdown to Maximize Pain and Punish Political Foes

Trump Raises Stakes for GOP in Shutdown With Layoff Threats

Trump’s Fixation on Americas Dooms the US as a Superpower

New Tariffs Could Worsen America’s Housing Crisis

Misguided Texas Housing Reforms Could Put a Chill On Rentals

Gold Hovers Near Record High on Rate-Cut Bets, Political Uncertainty

Fed’s Independence Remains at Risk Despite Temporary Legal Victory

US Banks Expect Victory in Capital Requirements as Trump Regulators Revamp Rules

The Mysterious Billionaire Boss at Jane Street Smashing Trading Records

Forget the Shutdown. Investors Have Tech Rally FOMO

The Democrats Should ‘Rush to China’ On Social Security

Great Cons Are Part of the American Story. And That Might Not Be So Bad.

China Outpaces US on Rail Links to Africa Minerals

US Judge Gives Offshore Wind a Ray of Hope in Trump Era

The Gas Turbine Shortage Might Be a Climate Problem

Berkshire to Buy Occidental’s Chemical Unit for $9.7 Billion

Morgan Stanley’s Tech Boss Says AI Coding Has ‘Profound’ Impact

Amazon’s AI Won’t Stop at Finding Your Lost Dog

The FTC Shakes Down Amazon for Well Exceeding Customer Needs

Meta Mines Your Chatbot Discussions to Serve More Personal Ads

How Does Silver Lake Exit That $55 Billion EA Leveraged Buyout?

The Aussie Surfer Who Parlayed His Connections Into a $55 Billion Deal

OpenAI Valuation Soars to $500 Billion, Topping Musk’s SpaceX

The IT Executive Tasked With Revamping How Tesla Sells Cars

Musk Becomes First Person to Hit $500 Billion Net Worth, Forbes List Shows

Spotify Might Just Prove That Two CEOs Are Better Than One

McDonald’s Quest to Reclaim World’s Biggest Restaurant Title Starts in Texas

Marketing Is Helping Carnival Charge More for Its Cruises

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Morning News: October 1, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 1st, 2025 at 7:07 am

Hamas Said to Meet Qatar, Turkey Officials Over Trump Plan

Trump’s Gaza Plan Needs Israel’s Neighbors To Buy It

NATO Fund to Borrow From Covid Playbook to Counter Russian Threat

G-7 Nears Agreement to Ramp-Up Sanctions on Russia’s Oil Revenue

Oil’s Saudi Put Has Been Replaced With a China Put

India’s Central Bank Stands Pat Amid Tariff Pressures

Japan’s Firebrand Investor Is Back, Along With the Country’s Stock Market

Young Japanese Investors, Bucking Their Elders, Embrace Stocks

Empowering Women On World Financial Planning Day

US Begins Government Shutdown With Trump, Democrats at Impasse

How Government Shutdowns Affect the Economy

How Social Security Will Be Affected by a Government Shutdown

Shutdown Puts a Divided Fed in a Perilous Position

White House Pulls Pick to Lead Labor Data Agency

The Mass Firing of Federal Workers Will Be the Genius of This Shutdown

How the US Government Shutdown Impacts Climate Work

National Parks Told to Remain Open During Shutdown Despite Risks

Gold Surges to Record as US Government Shutdown Boosts Havens

Why Investors Can’t Seem to Get Enough of Gold

Bond Traders Boost Bets on 10-Year Rally as Shutdown Begins

Wall Street Is Unfazed by Powell’s ‘Highly Valued’ Stocks Remark

Morgan Stanley Scores an Easier ‘Stress Test’ From the Fed

Apollo Executive Sees Massive Power Demand Steering Capital

Inside EY’s U.S. Auditing Cleanup to Reduce Shortfalls

US Mortgage Rates Rise, Stalling Nascent Recovery in Home Demand

China Displays Its Gizmos and Ambition, but Fewer Answers on Trade

Taiwan Rejects US Demand for Half of Chips to Be Made in America

U.S. to Take Equity Stake in Lithium Americas and Its Nevada Mining Project

The Company Founders Who Think They Need Not One but Two Successors

Trump Announces Deal With Pfizer to Sell Drugs to Medicaid at European Prices

Nike Is Grinding Forward But It Needs a Hit

Cracker Barrel Rejects the Dispossessed, ‘Trump Voter’ Narrative

Broadway Needs More Risky Musicals

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CWS Market Review – September 30, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 30th, 2025 at 6:24 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The third quarter of 2025 comes to an end today and it was another good one for Wall Street. For Q3, the S&P 500 gained 7.79%, and if we include dividends, then the S&P 500 was up 8.12%. With three months to go, the stock market is on track for another winning year (+13.72% or +14.83% with divs). This was the market’s second-best September of the last 27 years.

What’s remarkable is that the stock market has rallied despite all the scary pitfalls that we were told would certainly derail the bull market (wars, tariffs, the Fed).

The latest worry is that a potential government shutdown will sink the market. At midnight tonight, the money runs out. I won’t get into the politics of the shutdown, but the major sticking point is money for enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.

I will say that previous government shutdowns (there have been several) haven’t hurt the stock market. Economists generally believe that any short-term damage from a shutdown can quickly be rectified.

On Monday, there was a last-ditch effort to stave off a shutdown but that went nowhere, as expected. The Senate plans one more vote before Zero Hour but that also appears to have little chance of passing.

Asked if there’s any room for negotiations on Obamacare subsidies by Tuesday’s midnight shutdown deadline, Republican Sen. John Kennedy said, “Not unless Chuck stops smoking wizard weed.”

The condensed version of the story is that the Republicans are blaming the Democrats, and the Democrats believe the exact opposite.

Our fiscal issues are indeed very large, and there’s no easy fix. Fiscal 2025 also comes to an end tonight, and it looks like the deficit will be about $2 trillion. When I say “about,” I’m speaking of a range of hundreds of billions of dollars.

More than half the federal deficit racked up over the last 230 years has come about since 2020. Over the last 11 months (ending in August), the IRS has collected 6% more taxes than the same period last year.

The White House budget office has threatened mass firings if there is a shutdown.

The move by Senate Majority Leader John Thune is intended to maximize pressure on his counterpart, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who has so far blocked a plan for a status-quo funding bill without commitments to extend the Obamacare subsidies. Schumer, for his part, said the outcome is up to Trump and his GOP leaders.

“It’s now in the president’s hands. He can avoid a shutdown if he gets the Republican leader to go along with what we want,” Schumer said Monday night, hours after Congress’ top four party leaders met with Trump for a last-ditch meeting at the White House.

I’m definitely not the person who will add any insight to this political standoff. I’m only interested in any possible economic or financial outcomes, and there are several.

For one, when the money gets tight, the government can furlough workers. During the 2018-19 standoff, 340,000 employees were furloughed. Although at that time, the government had passed some bills to keep parts of the government working. Not this time. Some estimates say that furloughs could be as high as 800,000. Salaries for government employees could also be delayed which would have a further impact on consumer spending.

Another outcome of a government shutdown would be a delay of important economic data. That would include the September jobs report which is due out on Friday. The inflation report may also be delayed.

Wall Street expects Friday’s jobs report to show a gain of 51,000 net new jobs last month. Economists also expect to see a 0.3% increase in wages and it expects the unemployment rate to stay at 4.3%. I’d really like to see those wage numbers improve. Consumer spending is the main driver of the U.S. economy.

Tomorrow we’ll get the ADP report on private payrolls. That report won’t be delayed since it’s from a private company. I’ll caution you that the ADP report is a very imperfect bellwether of the BLS’s report. Also tomorrow, we’ll get the ISM Manufacturing Index for August. I like this report since it’s a survey, and we get it with very little lag time.

We got the August job openings report today, which is officially called the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. It showed that jobs openings increased a little bit in August. Job openings rose by 19,000 to 7.227 million. Economists had been expecting 7.185 million.

Hiring decreased by 114,000 to 5.126 million, and layoffs fell by 62,000 to 1.725 million.

This is further evidence that the labor market isn’t completely healthy. Exxon said today that it plans to cut 2,000 jobs, which is 3% to 4% of its workforce. Over the last three months, job gains have averaged 29,000 per month. That’s down from 82,000 over the same period last year. We’re at an odd point because the demand and supply for labor are falling. It would be nice to have more data.

If the government shuts down, economic data from the Federal Reserve would continue since the Fed isn’t funded by the government. The weekly jobless claims report also won’t be impacted since it’s collected at the state level, but I am concerned about the jobs report and the CPI report.

RIP: Larry Mendelson

We had some sad news this week. HEICO said that its long-time CEO Larry Mendelson died. In the 1950s, he took a finance class taught by David Dodd. Fans of value investing will recognize Dodd’s name. He was the co-author of Security Analysis with Ben Graham. Security Analysis is probably the foundational text of value investing.

Mendelson took those lessons to heart. He made a good deal of money in real estate and wanted to diversify his holdings. That led him to invest in an under-performing industrial company. He really didn’t care what he bought, as long as it was cheap and had potential to be retooled for future growth. He chose well.

Since 1995, the stock has increased more than 1,000-fold.

HEICO was originally founded in 1957 by Dr. William Heinicke as Heinicke Electronics. By the 1980s, Mendelson controlled a sizeable share in the company and was able to make himself CEO. The family still owns a large chunk of the voting shares, and several family members hold key positions within the company.

HEICO makes replacement parts for the airline industry. If a commercial aircraft needs some obscure new part, the airline can’t run down to the local hardware store. Instead, it needs to special-order it. Moreover, there’s a great deal of cost pressure on the airlines to keep the older planes serviceable.

Also, the aircraft parts often need to meet strict regulatory guidelines. The part maker really has to know what it’s doing. That’s where HEICO comes in. The business is lean and well run.

When airplane owners need a new part and go back to the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to get replacements, they’re often charged a steep price. The profit margins can exceed 30%. That provides enormous opportunity for HEICO. Consider that many aircraft are over 20 years old.

The aviation industry is broadly diversified, and HEICO is also able to get sales from commercial and military customers. That means that if there’s a drop-off on one end of the business, the other side can pick up the slack. Wherever there’s a demand to cut costs, HEICO has the potential to do well.
HEICO’s role is like that of a generic drugmaker. HEICO provides a low-cost copy of the original product, which is regulated by the Federal Aviation Administration. HEICO does more than aircraft parts. They also supply parts for satellites, rockets, missiles and even medical instruments.

HEICO is in an enviable position and nearly dominates its market. The company sells to 19 of the top 20 airlines in the world, and their customers love them.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: September 30, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 30th, 2025 at 7:08 am

China’s Factory Activity Gauges Show Signs of Improvement

China Bans New BHP Iron Ore Cargoes as Pricing Dispute Grows

Weak Japan Data Poses Headache for Central Bank

French Inflation Picks Up Pace as ECB Looks Likely to Keep Rates in Place

London Drops Out of Top 20 IPO Markets After Falling Behind Mexico

Foreign Bank Cash Decline Lifts Fed Funds Rate Ahead of Quarter-End

Trump Officials Flesh Out Tariffs on Kitchen Cabinets, Furniture and Timber

Trump’s Deportations Are Driving a Remittance Boom in Latin America

US SEC Chair Fast-Tracks Trump Push to End Quarterly Earnings Reports

Robert Moses Showed That Spending Cuts Just Feed the Spenders

US Government Shutdown Looms With Trump, Democrats at Odds

How Government Shutdowns Affect the Economy

Rise of ‘Accidental Landlords’ Is Bad News for Investors Who Bet Big on Rentals

Americans Seek More Control of Their Financial Future

Charlie Javice Sentenced to 85 Months in Prison for Fraud

The War on H1-Bs Has a New Front — and Bipartisan Support

America’s Elite Universities Have Lost Their Way

YouTube Settles Trump Lawsuit Over Account Suspension for $24.5 Million

Exxon to Cut 2,000 Workers as Oil Sector Job Losses Mount

Boeing Has Started Working on a 737 MAX Replacement

This Windowless Plane Is Vying to Be the Private Jet of the Future

Why General Motors Boss Mary Barra Is Slamming the Brakes on Lofty EV Ambitions

See How E.V. Road Trips Went From Impossible to Easy

What We Know About ChatGPT’s New Parental Controls

Electronic Arts Buyout Is a Whole New Game

The Seductive, and Risky, Power of Live Sports Betting

Spotify Founder Daniel Ek Leaving CEO Job

Food Supplier Mama’s Creations Turns to Dealmaking to Fuel Growth

The $400 Million Restaurant Man

Red Bull Owners Prop up Riches With Dividend as Profit Drops

‘You Can’t Run From Fear’: American Eagle’s CEO on the Sydney Sweeney Fallout

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Morning News: September 29, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 29th, 2025 at 7:07 am

BOJ Board Member Noguchi Raises Expectations for Rate Hike

Eurozone Businesses Less Gloomy as Trade Uncertainty Eases

Spain Inflation Picks Up Pace as ECB Looks Set to Keep Holding Rates in Place

Foreign Issuers Tap Canadian Bond Market as Demand for Non-US Assets Grows

Stock Futures Rise but Dollar Falls as Lawmakers Race to Avoid Shutdown

Thoughts On How To Fix An Ailing Federal Reserve

Fed’s Waller Says Technology Can Deliver More Choice in Payments

Washington Must Finish the Job On Crypto Clarity

US Gold Reserves Hit $1 Trillion in Value After Record Rally

TD’s US Investment-Banking Ambitions Risk Leaving Canada Behind

Blue Owl, xAI Deals Solidify Qatar Fund’s $500 Billion US Pledge

First Brands and Tricolor Are Signs of What’s to Come

Expectations for Trump Summit Low Before Shutdown Deadline

The Trump Administration’s Damaging War On Innovation

Trump Has Lost Credibility Worldwide, at Huge Cost

Millions of Workers Are Left Out of the ‘Low-Hire, Low-Fire’ US Job Market

Trump’s $100,000 Visa Upends Lives: ‘My Dreams Were Shattered’

High-Skilled Visas Have Problems. Trump’s $100,000 Fee Won’t Fix Them.

Would You Work ‘996’? The Hustle Culture Trend Is Taking Hold in Silicon Valley

Small Businesses Wither Under Trump’s Tariffs: ‘It’s Hard to Breathe’

President Trump’s Tariffs Are Rebuilding the U.S.’s Industrial Base

In Coal-Powered West Virginia, Sky-High Energy Costs Strain Residents

US to See $350 Billion Nuclear Boom to Power AI, Report Says

Huawei to Double Output of Top AI Chip as Nvidia Wavers in China

The Era of Humanoid Robots Is Here. The US Needs Control.

Electric Vehicles Face a ‘Pretty Dreadful Year’ in the U.S.

Volvo’s Most Popular Vehicle in America Will Soon Be Made Here, Too

Bob Iger, Hollywood’s Statesman, Gets a Political Education

Chinese Retailer Miniso Jumps on Collectible-Toys Train With Spinoff

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Morning News: September 26, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 26th, 2025 at 7:03 am

The UN Shows How Trump Is Pretty Much on His Own Now

Ukraine Is Now The Strongest Ally Europe Can Rely On

Europeans Privately Tell Russia They’re Ready to Shoot Down Jets

Tokyo’s Price Growth Steady But Rate Increase Still in Play

Bank of Mexico Makes 10th Straight Interest-Rate Cut

Trump Wades Into Bailout Politics in Offering a Lifeline to Argentina

Bessent Puts US Money at Risk in $20 Billion Argentina Backstop

Why Javier Milei’s Chainsaw Suddenly Jammed

Stock Futures Waver After Trump Unveils New Tariffs

New Tariffs Shock Countries Reeling From Trump’s Chaotic Trade War

The Trump FTC Was Right To Reverse the Non-Compete Ban

The Global Payments System Is a Miracle…But It’s Not Cheap

The Courts Strike a Blow Against the Administrative State

Fed Independence Reaches Its Moment of Truth as Supreme Court Weighs Cook’s Fate

Trump to Impose New Tariffs on Pharma, Big Trucks

Trump Takes Aim at Chip Makers With New Plan to Throttle Imports

Why Corporate America Is Caving to Trump

David Einhorn Sounds Warning on the AI Spending Splurge

The $100 Billion Nvidia-OpenAI Virtuous Circle Has an Ugly Side

TikTok’s $14 Billion Price Tag in Trump Deal Stuns Investors

Bot Networks Are Helping Drag Consumer Brands Into the Culture Wars

How Zillow Got On Track for First Profitable Year Since 2012

Six Flags Is Under Activist Pressure to Sell Its Real Estate

The TV Boss Who Kicked Kimmel Off His Stations and Started a Firestorm

Marketing Movies Is Harder Than Ever. And Here Comes ‘One Battle After Another.’

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Morning News: September 25, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 25th, 2025 at 7:04 am

EU Aims to Lock in Three More Trade Deals in Asia by 2027, Top Official Says

Asian Investors Turn to European and MidEast Hedge Funds, BofA Survey Shows

Milei Fixed Half of Argentina’s Inflation Problem. He Needs Help With the Rest.

Germans Feel a Little Less Gloomy Despite Economic Clouds

Swiss Central Bank on Hold as Tariffs Threaten Slowdown

The Federal Trade Commission Takes On the 2nd Amendment

Faith-Based Investing Makes It To the Indexes

Stablecoins Should Be for Moving Money, Not Saving It

Cryptoasset Drop Deepens Ahead of $22 Billion Options Expiry

Tether Is Dancing While the Crypto Music Still Plays

$100,000 Per Employee: How the H-1B Visa Fee Could Reshape Work Forces

Senators Want Answers From Big Tech on H-1B Workers, Layoffs

Germany Woos Indian Workers Spooked by U.S. Visa Changes

White House Tells Agencies to Prepare for Job Cuts in Shutdown

A Diminished Social Security Work Force, and Its Customers, Feel the Strain

Princess Awesome vs. the United States of America

Calpers Is Discarding the Familiar Pension Fund Playbook

Trump, Orban Talk Energy as US Bears Down on Russian Oil Buyers

China’s Remarkable Green Transition Is About to Get Tougher

Nature Loss Threatens 25% Profit Hit for Mining, Power Firms, Barclays Finds

HSBC Says Quantum Computing Trial Beat Wall Street Rivals

Intel Is Seeking an Investment From Apple as Part of Its Comeback Bid

How Intel’s $28 Billion Pledge Left an Ohio Town in Limbo

Instagram’s Mosseri Sees Challenge in Coming Wave of AI Images

The Space Economy Cannot Succeed Without Private Ownership

Autonomous Truck Startup Kodiak Set to Go Public After $2.5 Billion Deal

Starbucks to Cut Hundreds More Corporate Jobs, Close Stores

Giant Brand Bikes Made in Taiwan Barred by Trump Administration

Pharma Is Pushing $200,000 Cancer Drugs When Cheaper Doses May Work

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Morning News: September 24, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 24th, 2025 at 7:09 am

China to Stop Seeking Special WTO Treatment in Future Talks

The US Assault on the UN Rests on a Tragic Misunderstanding

EU Makes Fresh Push With US to Revive Talks on Metals Tariffs

German Companies Turn Gloomier as Economy Flounders

Why UK Inflation Is So High and What It Means for Interest Rates

The Trillion-Dollar Race for European Money Management’s Future

US Stocks Resist S&P 500 Drops of 2% or More in Best Run in Over a Year

Markets Are Selling Off After Powell Said Six Words Investors Don’t Want to Hear: ‘Equity Prices are Fairly Highly Valued’

Stephen Miran’s Rate-Cut Arguments Don’t Add Up

The Fed’s Rate Path Is Too Cautious to Fix Housing

Searching for the Bull’s End? Don’t Chase False Alarms

Morgan Stanley to Offer Crypto Trading on E*Trade Platform Through Zerohash Tie-Up

Financial Firms to Feel Outsized Impact from Trump’s H-1B Overhaul

Questionable Assumptions Underlay Calls for a Wealth Tax

This Labor Market Isn’t Great for Women, Either

Top US Business Schools Are Shutting Down DEI Initiatives

OpenAI Unveils Plans for Seemingly Limitless Expansion of Computing Power

Alibaba Shares Soar After Hiking AI Budget Past $50 Billion

AI “Workslop” Is Crushing Workplace Efficiency, Study Finds

The ‘Dark Patterns’ at the Center of FTC’s Lawsuit Against Amazon

195 Million Prime Members Wrecks the FTC’s Case Against Amazon

Taking Apple’s Property In the Name of ‘Freedom’

Ford Courts Riskier Borrowers With Lower Rates for F-150 Pickups

Why Obamacare Bills May Double Next Year

F.D.A.’s Approval of a Drug for Autism Upends Review Process

Philanthropies Strike a Promising Deal to Turn Back H.I.V.

Disney Raises Prices for Streaming Plans in the U.S.

Kimmel Makes Emotional Return to ABC With Trump Barbs, Comments on Kirk Controversy

Angola Bids for Minority Stake in De Beers to Fend Off Botswana

NFL Wants to Accelerate TV Rights Renegotiations to as Early as Next Year, Commissioner Goodell Says

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CWS Market Review – September 23, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 23rd, 2025 at 10:08 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Normally I’m not in the bubble-calling game, and I’m not going to start now, but I have to concede that the current stock market is getting pricey.

Very pricey. Even Jerome Powell admitted today that “equity prices are fairly highly valued.”

It seems stocks have gone up every day. Over the last 20 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has closed lower only seven times. The market has gone 36 days in a row without a drop of more than 0.7%, which really isn’t a big drop. Since August 1, the market is up more than 6.7%, and since April 8, it’s up over 33%.

Don’t get me wrong — I’ll take it — but I understand that it’s not normal.

Let’s look at some valuation numbers. The S&P 500 is expected to have earnings this year of $258.30 per share, and $302.90 per share for 2026. (Those are index-adjusted numbers.) That means the market is going for 25.9 times this year’s earnings, and 22.0 times next year’s earnings. That’s quite high.

Tobias Carlisle points out that the forward P/E of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap is at 16.2 and the S&P 600 Small-Cap is at 15.9, which is right in line with their long-term averages.

Not only are stocks up, but gold is at a new all-time high. In fact, gold has finally surpassed its 1980 peak adjusted for inflation. There’s nothing gold loves more than lower real interest rates, and that’s what it’s going to get. And if Jerome Powell is to be believed, then more rate cuts are coming (more on that in a bit).

In a roaring bull market, the best move is to sit back and let it run. One of my favorite Peter Lynch quotes is, “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than lost in the corrections themselves.”

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 (in black) along with its earnings (in blue). I scaled the two lines at a ratio of 20 to 1. That means whenever the lines cross, the S&P 500’s P/E Ratio is exactly 20.

But there’s a key difference with the current rally. As I’ve stressed many times, it’s not so much that the entire market is going higher, but it’s the kinds of stocks that are rallying.

Lately, that’s been the High Beta sector. In fact, ever since I’ve been highlighting the tremendous outperformance of High Beta, the market has only grown more lopsided.

Over the last 23 trading sessions, High Beta has beaten Low Vol 17 times. Since Augst 21, High Beta has gained 10.2% while Low Vol is -2.7%. Over the last five months, High Beta is up about 50% while Low Vol is flat. Sure, Wall Street is having a party, but it has a very exclusive guest list.

The big market news today was that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Warwick, Rhode Island.

This was a chance for Powell to explain what the Fed has been doing and why. I often make fun of “Fedspeak” because it’s unnecessarily complex and filled with useless jargon.

I’m glad to say that Powell was more plain spoken today. In his remarks, Powell noted that the economy has slowed down, and unemployment has edged up. He also said that inflation has ticked higher and remains “somewhat elevated.” Powell said that at the FOMC’s last meeting, it was time to move policy closer to neutral. In other words, it was time to cut rates.

Powell said:

GDP rose at a pace of around one and a half percent in the first half of the year, down from 2.5 percent growth last year. The moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending. Activity in the housing sector remains weak, but business investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from last year’s pace. As noted in the September Beige Book, a report that gathers qualitative information from across the Fed System, businesses continue to say that uncertainty is weighing on their outlook. Measures of consumer and business sentiment declined sharply in the spring; they have since moved up but remain low relative to the start of the year.

That’s a pretty good summary. The question mark is the labor market. There’s been a drop off in both the supply and demand for workers (i.e., immigration) which, in Powell’s words, has made for an “unusual and challenging development.”

Payroll job gains slowed sharply over the summer months, as employers added an average of just 29,000 per month over the past three months. The recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the “breakeven” rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant. But a number of other labor market indicators remain broadly stable. For example, the ratio of job openings to unemployment remains near 1. And multiple measures of job openings have been moving roughly sideways, as have initial claims for unemployment insurance.

Powell said that since 2022, the Fed has made significant gains with inflation but it’s still above the Fed’s target for 2%. Over the last year, the core PCE is running at 2.9%.

What’s behind the recent increase in inflation? It appears that prices for goods are the chief culprit. This comes after goods prices fell much of last year. Also, the available evidence suggests that tariffs are causing the higher prices rather than broader pricing pressures.

For services, the rate of inflation has been falling, and it looks to continue to fall. (Mind you, this is the rate of increase that’s falling.) Powell said that beyond the next year, most inflation points toward the Fed’s 2% goal.

There’s also the issue of the tariffs. Powell said that the best-case scenario will be a one-time shift in prices. Powell stressed that “one-time” doesn’t means “all at once.” It’s simply a matter of time. Tariffs will have to work their way through supply chains. That means the one-time may even take several quarters.

Personally, I’m baffled by the Fed’s strong commitment to 2% inflation. There’s nothing magical about it. As an investor, the important thing is that they got inflation down from 9% to 2.9%. Getting the extra 0.9% doesn’t seem like that big a deal, especially if it means hurting an already damaged labor market.

Powell said that with the dual threat of fewer jobs and higher prices, there’s no risk-free path. There’s a danger of moving too aggressively, and there’s danger if they stand still for too long. One detail that caught my eye is that Powell said that he still sees the current policy as “modestly restrictive.” In other words, he’s opening the door for more rate cuts.

Wall Street currently expects another interest-rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in October, and another cut in December. After that, traders see three more cuts in 2026.

On Monday, new Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran made the case for aggressively lower interest rates. The current target range for the Fed funds rate is 4.0% to 4.25%. Miran thinks it should be in the low 2% area.

In the Summary of Economic Projections, Miran wants to cut rates by 1.25% this year. Miran was the sole dissenting voice at last week’s FOMC meeting.

Miran makes an interesting case. Miran believes that “changes in tax and immigration policy along with easing rental costs, deregulation and incoming revenue for tariffs” are changing the economic landscape and as a result will allow for much lower interest rates.

Miran contends that the “neutral interest rate” has fallen. By neutral rate, we mean the level at which the Fed is neither pushing nor pulling. The problem with the neutral rate is that we never know exactly where it is. It’s a big guessing game. Right now, the Fed thinks the neutral rate is around 1% to 2%, but Miran thinks it’s near 0%.

Miran’s term is a short one. It ends in January. Later this year, he could return to the Fed as its new chairman.

There are a few important economic reports coming this week. On Thursday, we’re going to get reports for durable goods and existing home sales. Also on Thursday, the government will update its report on Q2 GDP growth.

Of course, Q2 is starting to be far away from us. It started six months ago and ended three months ago. Still, the GDP report is a biggie. The last report said that the U.S. economy grew at a real annualized rate of 3.3% during Q2. That’s quite good.

But what about Q3? Wall Street is starting to parse the numbers for this report. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently pegs Q3 GDP growth at 3.3%. If that’s right, it would be back-to-back quarters of 3.3% growth.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: September 23, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 23rd, 2025 at 7:06 am

Swedish Riksbank Cuts Key Rate and Signals Further Easing Is Unlikely

EU, Indonesia Ink Trade Deal After Years of Talks

European Business Activity Inches Up But Impetus Remains Elusive

Chainsaw Politics Are Not Cutting It in Argentina

China Floods the World With Cheap Exports After Trump’s Tariffs

Tariffs Will Hit Slowing U.S. Economy Hard in 2026, OECD Says

Dow Futures Steady Ahead of Powell Comments

Miran Is Contradicting Himself on the Case for Big Rate Cuts

$37 Trillion Debt Vivifies the Perils of Future Budgetary Balance

Ignore ‘Open Letters’ From Economists

CFPB Ends Monitoring of Apple, U.S. Bank Years Ahead of Schedule

Some PE Firms Doomed to Fail as High-Flying Industry Loses Its Way

Eurozone Faces Inflation, Growth Threat From China’s Rare Earths Dominance, ECB Warns

How Norway Adopted New Tech in Its Hunt for ‘Missing’ Oil

Spiraling Power Costs Are Now a Major Political Issue in the US

Pricing Water Risk Takes On Growing Urgency Amid Scarcity Fears

An $800 Billion Revenue Shortfall Threatens AI Future, Bain Says

Nintendo’s Switch 2 Sales Boom Fails to Ease Game Developers’ Gloom

Jaguar Faces Prolonged Shutdown After a Cyberattack

Tech’s H-1B Debate: Is Trump’s New Fee a Solution or a Setback?

Trump’s $100,000 Visa Fee Knocks Down Bridge Between India and the U.S.

Who Uses H-1B Visas the Most, in Charts

USDA Puts Food Researchers on Leave

The FDA’s Vinay Prasad Is a Potentially Fatal Barrier to the Right to Try

Trump’s Tylenol Briefing Peddled Junk Science

Scientists Rebuke Trump’s Tylenol-Autism Claim, Stress Fever Is Bigger Danger in Pregnancy

This Hated Stock Suddenly Looks Like an Obesity Bargain

A Charlie Kirk Poster Reignites Debate Over When Businesses Can Refuse Service

Kimmel’s Late-Night Show to Return to ABC Tuesday

The Kimmel Saga Reveals a MAGA Strategy — and Its Defense

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