Morning News: December 10, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 10th, 2020 at 7:02 am

Google, Adtech Firms Targets of Fresh EU Privacy Complaints

Google And Amazon Fined A Total Of $163 Million For Violating French Law, After They Tracked Unsuspecting Visitors By Placing Cookies On Their Computers

Covid-19 Relief Deal Delayed With Pelosi, McConnell Holding Back

S&P DJI Removes Chinese Firms From Indexes After U.S. Order

U.S. and States Say Facebook Illegally Crushed Competition

How Facebook Tried to Make Itself Antitrust-Proof

Facebook Breakup Would Demolish Zuckerberg’s Social Media Empire

Airbnb Reaches $47 Billion Value

Disney to Reveal Plans to Turbocharge Streaming Offerings

The Essex Boys: How Nine Traders Hit a Gusher With Negative Oil

Jeff Carter: Corporations and Civil Disobedience

Michael Batnick: It’s A Party

Ben Carlson: How America Invests

Howard Lindzon: The Market of Stocks and Stocktwits Sentiment Machine

Joshua Brown: Inflation Expectations Now Above Pre-Pandemic Levels & Rob Arnott on Tesla, the Growth Stock Bubble, Interest Rates and the Value Investing Comeback of 2021

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Morning News: December 9, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 9th, 2020 at 7:07 am

Where Do I Fall in the American Economic Class System?

How Oil Majors Shift Billions in Profits to Island Tax Havens

How High Can You Go? Wall Street Exuberance Makes Some Uneasy

Flood of Day Traders Strains Online Brokers and the Backlash Is Swift

How Pandemic Aid Attracted Hordes of Gleeful and Gutsy Scammers

FireEye, a Top Cybersecurity Firm, Says It Was Hacked by a Nation-State

DoorDash Set for Trading Debut After IPO Raises $3.37 Billion

Who’s Behind the Fight Between Warner Bros. and Hollywood? It’s AT&T

Tesla Equity Sale Comes at a Good Time for Index-Fund Trackers

Musk, Bezos Space Race Gets a Boost From Anti-Poverty Tax Break

Citigroup Heads to Trial Seeking to Undo Nearly $900 Million Revlon Blunder

Nick Maggiulli: My Favorite Investment Writing of 2020

Ben Carlson: Timeless Themes From the Movie Wall Street

Michael Batnick: Growth At an Unreasonable Price

Howard Lindzon: Ryan Nece Joins Me On Panic With Friends To Talk NFL Football, The Super Bowl and Venture Investing at Next Play Capital

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Ten Straight Up Days for the Nasdaq 100
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 8th, 2020 at 2:44 pm

Fiserv Gives Upbeat Forecast
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 8th, 2020 at 12:55 pm

Many companies are holding their investor days this time of year. Or this year, they’re holding virtual investor days. Disney’s is going to be on Thursday.

Today is Fiserv’s (FISV) turn. I like Fiserv a lot, but it’s had a tough year. That’s unusual for Fiserv. The stock trailed in the bear market and trailed in the rally. Lately, the shares have started to perk up.

For 2020, Fiserv expects to see its EPS grow by 11% over last year. That would make it Fiserv’s 35th year in a row of double-digit growth.

Let’s do some math. Last year, Fiserv made $4.00 per share so 11% from there comes to $4.44 per share. The company has raked in $3.12 per over the first three quarters so that implies Q4 earnings of $1.32 per share. Sure enough, Wall Street had been expecting $1.30 per share. That’s pretty good.

For next year, Fiserv expects internal revenue growth of 7% to 12% and EPS growth of 20% to 25%.

Fiserv also expects internal revenue growth of 7% to 9% annually for 2022 and 2023, and EPS growth of 15% to 20% over this timeframe.

Morning News: December 8, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 8th, 2020 at 7:05 am

Big Push Into Helium Could Have the World on Russia’s String

Trump ‘Vaccine Summit’ Will Not Include Vaccine Manufacturers

McConnell Refuses to Endorse Bipartisan Stimulus, Risking Deal

Stimulus Compromise Is $908 Billion Better Than Nothing

Second U.S. Judge Blocks Commerce Restrictions on TikTok

Robinhood Is Losing Thousands of Traders to a China-Owned Rival

Airbnb and DoorDash IPOs Will Use a ‘Hybrid Auction.’ What That Means—and Why It Matters.

Etsy Was a Twee Culture Punchline. Now It’s a Wall Street Darling.

Uber, After Years of Trying, Is Handing Off Its Self-Driving Car Project

Calm Meditation App Hits $2 Billion Value With Goldman, TPG Backing

Trading Box Office for Streaming, but Stars Still Want Their Money

Ssslow Down! Sleeping Snakes Stall Tesla’s German Gigafactory

Ben Carlson: How to Invest When You’ve Already Won the Game

Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday…Not Enough Supply, SPAC Mania, Venture Capital Returns in The Stock Market and Mega Stocks Rest…

Joshua Brown: Charts of the Year 2020 – DTJB x YCharts

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What’s Driving Value
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 7th, 2020 at 2:09 pm

For the first time in two years, value has led growth for four weeks in a row.

What’s driving it? Here’s a look at the relative strength of the four major cyclical sectors. Financials, Industrials, Energy and Materials have all led the market over the past month.

The key drivers have been Energy and Financials. These are also two of the major value sectors. This shows us the strength of value stocks and how the market is shifting towards cyclicals.

Disney’s Investor Day Is Thursday
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 7th, 2020 at 1:02 pm

On Friday, shares of Disney (DIS) got to a new all-time high. Since March, the Mouse House has gained more than 90%, but the big news comes this Thursday when Disney hosts its shareholder day.

The company will need to be transparent about the struggles ahead, and offer a clear strategy, at Disney’s investor day scheduled for Thursday, according to Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global and chief market strategist at Lido Advisors.

“Management has to address the fact that despite fantastic Disney+ subscribership – 73 million, very impressive – we still need to see a plan for how they’re going to get themselves out of this big hole that they have.

They’ve lost 62% in parks revenue, 51% in studio revenue and we need to see sort of the plan to get up and out of that,” Sanchez told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday.

Even with a vaccine, Disney could face a slow trudge to normal attendance at its parks, she said.

“Vaccine distribution isn’t expected until about midyear. Does that mean that their parks can get back up to full capacity during the summer months? Those are the questions that need to be answered,” said Sanchez.

The streaming business has done a lot for Disney but it can’t do everything.

The IPO Market Is Back
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 7th, 2020 at 11:00 am

IPOs are back. Thanks to the market’s recent rally, a spate of companies are looking to go public. Bloomberg reports that December is on pace to be the biggest month ever for new offerings.

This week, DoorDash and Airbnb will start trading. In fact, both stocks just raised their offering range which is a sign of strong demand.

Airbnb had been looking at a price range of $44 to $50 per share. Now that’s up to $56 to $60 per share. DoorDash went from a range of $75 to $85 per share up to $90 to $95 per share. Earlier this year, Airbnb had been valued at $18 billion. If this week’s offering goes off smoothly, then the company will be valued at $42 billion.

What’s the reason for the excitement? Thanks to the pandemic, a number of IPO candidates sat out the market. Now, the outlook looks much better. In fact, several more IPOs are on the way.

Airbnb and DoorDash will quickly be followed by three other mega-listings that could add billions of dollars to the IPO tally.

Also on deck to go public this month are Affirm Holdings Inc., which lets online shoppers pay for purchases such as Peloton bikes in installments, online video-game company Roblox Corp. and ContextLogic Inc., the parent of discount online retailer Wish. Each is likely to attain a valuation of tens of billions of dollars in its listing.

The New York Times quoted one investor as saying, “almost every hot company is being pursued like mad.”

Morning News: December 7, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 7th, 2020 at 7:01 am

China Exports Generate Record Trade Surplus

Brexit Crunch Time – Stand-Off Puts EU-UK Trade Deal On A Knife Edge

A $900 Billion Plan Would Help the Economy, but Not Fix It

Santa May Have Come Early, but There’s Still Room for the Stock Market to Rally This Year

With 3 Billion Packages to Go, Online Shopping Faces Tough Holiday Test

‘This Is Insanity’: Start-Ups End Year in a Deal Frenzy

Airbnb, DoorDash Boost Price Ranges Ahead of Mega Week for IPOs

Americans Could Start Getting COVID-19 Vaccines As Early As Friday, An FDA Advisor Says

Goldman Plots Florida Base for Asset Management in a Blow to New York

IKEA Turns The Page: Drops Iconic Catalogue After 70 Years

Bob Dylan to Sell His Entire Songwriting Catalog to Universal

Howard Lindzon: Section 230…Who Do You Trust?

Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: What is the State of the Recovery?

Michael Batnick: This Recession is Different, This One’s a Head Scratcher & Stocks, Both Foreign and Domestic

Ben Carlson: The 20 Rules of Personal Finance, The Beauty of Outsourcing & Talk Your Book: The Structured Marketplace

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November NFP: +245K; Unemployment 6.7%
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 4th, 2020 at 8:34 am

The November jobs report is out. The U.S. economy created 245,000 net new jobs last month. That compares with 610,000 for October. Wall Street expected 440,000.

The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%.

The number of unemployed persons is 10.7 million. That’s 4.9 million higher than in February.

The numbers come amid a new wave of coronavirus cases that threatens to push the U.S. healthcare system to the brink. More than 100,000 people are hospitalized across the U.S. due to the accelerated outbreak, which saw 210,161 new cases Thursday, according to the Covid Tracking Project overseen by journalists at The Atlantic.

Though the U.S. is coming off its fastest growth quarter ever, economists worry that the next quarter or two could see flat or even negative growth before rebounding strongly in the latter part of 2021.

The November job gains would be considered strong under normal circumstances, but the pandemic has left millions of Americans out of work from jobs lost in the early stages of the crisis. The total represents the slowest job growth since the employment recovery began in May.