CWS Market Review – February 10, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 10th, 2026 at 6:17 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time in its history. This comes almost 70 years to the day from when the Dow first breeched 500. In other words, the Dow has risen 100-fold in nearly 70 years. That works out to an average gain of 6.8% per year, or 1% every eight weeks, and that doesn’t include dividends.

As impressive as that sounds, the Dow has actually been the laggard in recent years. The Dow’s holding of mega-cap tech isn’t quite as hefty as the overall market’s weighting. The Dow currently holds Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple.

An important fact here is that the Dow is price-weighted which means the index is calculated by adding up the prices of the 30 stocks and adjusting by a divisor. Roughly speaking, each dollar move in a Dow stock is worth about 6.16 points in the Dow. How large the company is doesn’t matter. Of the four mega-cap stocks I just mentioned, only Microsoft is ranked among the top 12 in the Dow going by price weighting.

In the chart below, you can really see how badly the Dow (in blue) has lagged the S&P 500 (red). If the Dow had merely kept pace with the S&P 500 over the last eight years, the index would be around 63,000 today instead of 50,000.

Right about the time the Dow was breaking 500, the index made its first change in 17 years. In 1956, International Paper was added and Loews Theaters was dropped. Before that, we’d have to go back to 1939 when Nash Motors and IBM were dropped.

The dropping of IBM was a huge mistake, and it completely altered the Dow’s history. All the major milestones would have come years earlier. IBM was added back to the Dow in 1979. Over those 40 years, shares of IBM soared 22,000%.

The Market’s Inflation-Adjusted Peak

Speaking of Wall Street history, yesterday was an important, and largely overlooked, anniversary for Wall Street. Yesterday marked the 60th anniversary of the stock market’s inflation-adjusted peak.

Some explanation is needed. On February 9, 1966, the S&P 500 closed at 94.06. Going by nominal terms, the S&P 500 passed that high as early as 1967. By 1968, the S&P 500 traded over 100, but after adjusting for inflation, the market was in a tailspin that lasted for several years.

Here’s a look at the inflation-adjusted S&P for nearly the entire 20th century. I got this data from Robert Shiller’s data library. To make it easier to read, I set February 1966 to 100.

By 1982, the S&P 500 was down more than 60% from its peak sixteen years prior. Think about that! As late as October 1992, the market was still trading below its inflation-adjusted peak from 26 years before.

The key lesson from this data is how dangerous inflation is to the stock market. Inflation is a tax on capital. When inflation appears, bonds quickly lose value, and stocks fall as well to keep pace with fixed-income investments. From 1966 to 1982, inflation in the United States tripled. That took a huge toll on financial markets.

Inflation was finally cured by the Fed in the 1980s, but it took a brutal recession to slay the beast. Once that was out of the way, the stock market soared. From a long-term perspective, stocks weren’t really climbing as much as they were making back a lot of lost ground.

Here’s a chart looking at stocks and inflation from the early part of this decade. Notice that a sharp rise in inflation (the red line, left scale) sparked a big loss in stocks (the blue line, right scale). Again, stocks hate inflation.

IES Teaches Us a Good Investing Lesson

One of the lessons I stress to investors, especially newer investors, is how irrational the stock market can be. Warren Buffett once said, “If markets were rational, I’d be waiting tables for a living.”

From a distance, the stock market can appear to be rational. It has all these numbers, and all these experts giving their expertise on all sorts of things. But in the short-term, it’s pure chaos. No one likes to admit that, but it’s true.

We got a good lesson in the market’s behavior recently with one of our Buy List stocks.

On January 30, IES Holdings, Inc. (IESC) released its fiscal-Q1 earnings report. This was for the three months ending in December. IES has been a great stock for us. I added it to the Buy List last year, and it gained over 90% for us in 2025. I especially like IES because it’s virtually unfollowed by any Wall Street analysts.

I decided to keep the stock on the 2026 Buy List as well. IES is having another solid year for us. By January 30, IES was a 22% winner for us. That’s not bad for less than one month’s work.

According to the earnings report, IES’s quarterly revenues rose 16% to $871 million, and operating income was up 31% to $97.7 million. Diluted adjusted EPS attributable to common stockholders was up 40% to $3.71. With so little analyst coverage, there’s no real consensus to speak of.

At the end of the quarter, IES had a backlog of $2.6 billion. The company ended the quarter with $88.8 million in cash, no debt, and $169.9 million in marketable securities.

IESC has four reporting segments. Communications’ revenue grew 51% to $351 million. Residential was down 11% to $284 million. Infrastructure Solutions had 30% revenue growth to $140 million. Commercial & Industrial was up 7% to $95 million.

You would think this was good news. Not so. Once trading opened on Friday, January 30, shares of IES got absolutely clobbered. Whatever the expectations were, IES quite obviously didn’t meet them. By the end of trading, shares of IES were down 20% on the day. Ouch!

I thought the drop was extreme, but it’s hard to argue with a mob. Did they even look at the earnings report? It said nothing that should have been a surprise.

Now here’s the odd part. Since IES reached its low, the stock has been in a blistering rally. Over the last seven trading days, IESC has gained more than 31%. It’s made up everything it lost and then some. IESC is now a 28% winner on the year. The stock reached another new all-time high in today’s trading.

I don’t get it. We made a tidy profit, and we didn’t do anything except not panic. This is a good reminder of why it pays to ignore the market’s short-term bumps and bruises.

Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

Earlier today we got the delayed retail sales report for December. The Commerce Department said that retail sales were flat during the month of December. Economists had expected an increase of 0.4%. Excluding autos, sales also were unchanged compared to the estimate for a 0.3% increase. That comes on top of a 0.6% increase for November.

We’re getting several excuses for the poor report including inflation, tariffs and the weather. For the year, retail sales were up by 2.4%. That’s a little bit below the rate of inflation. Not including autos, sales were up 3.3% over the last 12 months.

Miscellaneous retailers and furniture stores posted declines of 0.9%, while clothing and accessories stores were off 0.7%, and electronics and appliances saw a drop of 0.4%. Online outlets sales rose just 0.1%, while building materials and garden centers saw the strongest gain, up 1.2%.

I need to apologize for an error. In last week’s issue, I said the January jobs report was coming out on Friday. That was incorrect. The report is due out tomorrow. My apologies. In my defense, the government shutdown screwed up many of these reporting dates.

For tomorrow, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 55,000 new jobs for January. The last few reports haven’t been that strong. I think a disappointing report could upset the market. Wall Street expects the unemployment rate to stay at 4.4%.

My biggest concern is average hourly earnings. For January, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 0.3%. Wage growth is running ahead of inflation but not by much.

A big question for tomorrow’s jobs report is that the annual revisions are also due out. There’s a good chance that the numbers will show that the labor market is doing a lot worse than originally thought.

As it looks right now, the Fed under Jerome Powell won’t touch interest rates again. We may have to wait until June, and a new Fed chair, for the central bank to cut rates again.

That’s all for now. Expect more earnings news this week. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: February 10, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 10th, 2026 at 7:03 am

U.S. Frackers Explore New Frontier: Shale Abroad

BP Suspends Share Buybacks as Profit Slumps

The US Needs More Missiles, Not Defense Stock Buybacks

Macron’s Golden Chance to Shield France’s Central Bank

Trump’s Grip on Billions of Taxpayer Dollars Loosened by Courts

Billionaires Fleeing California Wealth Tax Snap Up Miami Mansions

Being Black on Wall Street Has Gotten Tougher as DEI Disappears

Bitcoin’s Slide Isn’t a Market Panic. It’s a Legitimacy Test

National Debt Solutions That Don’t Address Why There’s Debt

Barclays Sets New Midterm Targets Alongside Profit Beat

Blackstone Founder Steve Schwarzman Aims to Build a Top 10 Private Foundation

How Trump Squandered His Most Potent Political Asset

The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor

What Replaces Deported Immigrant Workers? Not Americans.

Healthcare Is Propping Up the Job Market

RFK Jr.’s Vaccine Skepticism Is Entering a New Phase

The Knockoff GLP-1 Market Is Still the Wild West

Securing a Healthier Future Through Generic Drugs

CVS Annual Profit Guidance Misses Wall Street Estimates

Atlanta Is Challenging Big Corporate Landlords Without Waiting on Trump

Memory Chip Squeeze Widens Gap Between Market Winners and Losers

TSMC Revenue Jumps 37% in January as AI Spending Marches On

Bond Investors Are Betting on Another 100 Years of Google

Alphabet Seeks $9.4 Billion From Pound, Swiss Franc Bond Sales

Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond Gets Highest Demand in Sterling Sale

Spotify Keeps Adding Subscribers as Features Expand

Kering Shares Surge on Hopes for a Sustained Rebound for Gucci

A Conversation With Anna Wintour and Her U.S. Vogue Successor, Chloe Malle

Eddie Bauer Files for Bankruptcy

Red Lobster CEO Says Seafood Chain Needs to Get Smaller

Chipotle CEO Wants More Customers Who Make Over $100K — Which Means Price Hikes Are Coming

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Morning News: February 9, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 9th, 2026 at 7:02 am

Taiwan Exports Start 2026 Strong in Bright Sign for Economy

In Japan, Investors Give an Exuberant Welcome to Takaichi’s Big Win

How Japan’s Leader Wants to Shape the Economy

MAGA’s Split Over Israel Extends to a Ship Attacked 58 Years Ago

US-Iran Talks Make a Good Start But Oil Markets Can’t Relax Just Yet

Congress Must Stop War by Mission Creep

Copper Price Surge Is Masking Mining Woes in Top Producer, Chile

What an Olympic Medal Is Worth

Why Inflation May Be About to Come in Hot

Finance 101 Still Explains (Almost) Everything

These Presidents Found Out How Trying to Control the Fed Chair Can Backfire

Warsh Call for Fed-Treasury Accord Stirs Debate in $30 Trillion Bond Market

Google-Parent Alphabet Kicks Off Seven-Part US Bond Sale

Dow 50,000: Why Wall Street Keeps Misunderstanding Trumpnomics

The Finance Industry Is a Grift. Let’s Start Treating It That Way.

Junior Bankers Are Teaching Their Elders How to Use AI

NatWest Agrees to Buy Wealth Manager Evelyn Partners for $3.7 Billion

Trump’s Dollar Doctrine: Weak Currency, Strong Nation

Easy-Money Loans Backfire on Rookies in the Home Flipping Market

Immigration Raids in South Texas Are Starting to Hit the Economy

The Heritage Foundation Sees the Family Crisis — But Not the Fix

This Is Why It’s So Hard to Find a Job Right Now

Chinese Cars Are Coming to the US — Like It or Not

The Chinese Factory That Opened in the U.S. and Clobbered Its Rivals

Big Tech’s AI Push Is Costing a Lot More Than the Moon Landing

Advent, FedEx-Led Consortium to Buy InPost for $9.2 Billion

Novo Says It’s Suing Hims to Halt Obesity Drug Copycats

Kroger Plans to Name an Ex-Walmart Executive as Its Next CEO

Hollywood Braces for New Round of Labor Talks

Prediction Markets and Casinos Go to War Over Sports Betting

Why the N.F.L. Booked Bad Bunny for the Super Bowl

Two Volleyball Leagues Want to Be the Next W.N.B.A. Only One Can Win

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Morning News: February 6, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 6th, 2026 at 7:03 am

Argentina Inflation Battle Jolts Confidence in Milei’s Overhaul

They Came for Its Riches, but Big Business Is Souring on South Africa

Failed Rio Tinto-Glencore Talks Show Big Copper Deals Are Hard to Do

Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem Warns of Misdiagnosing Economic Weakness

Bank of Mexico Pauses in Rate-Cutting Cycle

It’s Time to Rethink the Standard Investment Advice. But Not Too Much

Crypto Takes a Deep Slide Despite Trump’s Support

Bitcoin’s Slump Can Worsen as Icy Winter Sets In

Credit Market’s Reality Check Follows Decade of Loose Lending

Goldman, JPMorgan Bankers See Bonus Pools Rise at Least 10%

They Can Keep Greenland. Let Us Have Free Speech

Both Parties Are Missing Something Big on Immigration

‘Gang Stuff’ and ‘Illicit Trysts’: How Epstein Sought Leverage With the Wealthy

Trump Is Remaking the Global Oil Market, and Exxon and Chevron Want In

Trump’s Tax Law Sharply Cuts Amazon’s Corporate Tax Bill

Amazon Shares Sink as Company Boosts AI Spending by Nearly 60%

Big Tech to Spend $650 Billion This Year as AI Race Intensifies

Amazon and Google Picked a Bad Time to Announce Extraordinary Spending

The Dark Side of A.I. Weighs on the Stock Market

Artificial Intelligence Will Be the Greatest Job Creator Ever

The New Office Oddity: Co-Workers Dictating Everything Into AI

AI Has Turned Bernie and DeSantis Into Unlikely Allies

Your Business Runs on Data: Protect It Like It Matters

The Car Industry Is Racing to Replace Chinese Code

Facing Threats From Both America and China, Toyota Changes C.E.O.s

AutoNation Revenue Declines on Weaker New, Used Vehicle Sales

Why Are New Cars So Expensive in the US Now?

Maritime Giants Target Major New York-Area Port Terminal

Europe Accuses TikTok of ‘Addictive Design’ and Pushes for Change

Nike and Trump’s Supporters Have Been on a Collision Course for Years

Your Peptide Is a Black Box the FDA Chooses to Ignore

Italy’s Richest Family Wants to Conquer America’s Breakfast Tables

After 80 Years, Minute Maid’s Frozen Canned Juices Are Getting Put On Ice

Gambling Pros Adjust to a Super Bowl on the Prediction Markets

Blood Tests and Better-for-You Soda: Super Bowl Ads May Be Healthiest Yet

The Super Bowl Ads (So Far), Ranked

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Morning News: February 5, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 5th, 2026 at 7:07 am

Why a Snap Election Is a Gamble for Japan’s Leader

Demise of US-Russia Nuclear Pact Sparks Fears of New Arms Race

The Black Market for Russian and Iranian Oil Is in Trouble

The $100 Billion Bet on Venezuelan Oil Relies on a Broken State Company

Extreme Cold Is a Billion-Dollar Problem, Too

U.S. Enlists Mexico, EU and Japan in Its Minerals Race With China

Barrick to Spin Off North American Gold Assets Through IPO

China Trader Who Made $3 Billion on Gold Bets Big Against Silver

Silver Is So Pricey That the World’s Largest Jeweler Is Switching to Platinum

Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000 as Market Faces a ‘Crisis of Faith’

Bank of England Holds Rates But Signals It Is Likely to Cut Again

Gilts Jump, Pound Drops as BOE Vote Fuels Bets on March Cut

BNP Paribas Lifts Midterm Targets

UBS Investment Bank Units to See Bonus Pools Jump by Up To 20%

Top Republican Senator Says Fed’s Powell Didn’t Commit a Crime

Tear Down the Regional Fed Walls, Mr. Warsh

How Kevin Warsh Could Square the Trumpnomics Circle

What if Labor Becomes Unnecessary?

US Companies Announce Most Job Cuts for a January Since 2009

Jeffrey Epstein’s Money Mingled With Silicon Valley Start-Ups

Startup Pitches X-Rays and AI to Catch Fraudulent Returns

Google Backs Up $185 Billion in AI Spending With Receipts

Anthropic’s New AI Legal Tool Triggered a Selloff Without Evidence

Texas Instruments to Acquire Silicon Labs in Deal Valued at $7.5 Billion

What’s Behind the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ Plunge in Software Stocks

The TikTok “Saga” Is About American Envy, Not National Security

Spotify, a Major Audiobook Provider, Will Soon Offer Physical Books

KKR to Acquire Pro Sports Investor Arctos in $1.4 Billion Deal

Behind Disney’s Search for a Lasting Successor to Bob Iger

Media Bosses Bent to Trump. Artists Aren’t Having It

If a Fiber Campaign Costs Millions, It Has to Be a Super Bowel Ad

Peloton Slashes Sales Outlook, Misses Estimates Despite Hardware Debut

Hershey’s Outlook Tops Estimates on Price Hikes, New Items

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Morning News: February 4, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 4th, 2026 at 7:09 am

Bulgarians Adopt the Euro With a Whisper of Melancholy but Few Tears

Why India Will Struggle to Reduce Its Reliance on Russian Oil

America’s Critical-Minerals Strategy Looks Increasingly Chinese

‘Neoroyalism’ and What It Says About Trump

Wall Street’s Rotation Into Value Has a Dot-Com Warning to It

Once the Hottest Bet on Wall St., Private Credit Has Started to Crack

Hedge Funds Use Leverage to Reap 28% Return From Safest Debt

UBS Profit Beat Overshadowed by Worries Over US Wealth Outflows

Stephen Miran, Temporary Fed Governor, Resigns From White House Role

Warsh Will Need His Vaunted People Skills to Smooth Return to Fed He’s Scorned

Warsh’s White House Honeymoon Will Be Brief

With Jobs Data Delayed, Analysts Flock to Unofficial Data

Trump’s Payments Industry Squeeze Will Tighten Consumer Credit

Kalshi Claims ‘Extortion,’ Then Recants in Feud Over User Losses

Jason Furman Has a Plan To Make All of Us Very Tall

Home Builders Turn to White House for Help on Inventory Glut

Voters Say Housing Prices Are Too High. Trump Wants Them Higher

Congress Targets Housing Crisis as Solutions Elude Trump

Congress Reins In Drug Middlemen in Effort to Lower Prescription Prices

Trump’s Attempt to Make Drugs Cheaper Is Pushing Up Prices in Other Countries

Lilly Sees Surging Sales in Break From Obesity Rival Novo

The Telecom Act of 1996 Needs a Deregulatory Overhaul

Henkel to Buy Coatings Company Stahl in $2.5 Billion Deal

Texas Instruments Strikes $7.5 Billion Deal to Buy Silicon Labs

Nasdaq Mulls New ‘Fast Entry’ Rule Ahead of Big IPOs Like SpaceX

Musk’s AI Startup Is a Payload SpaceX Can’t Afford

Prologis Might Fund Data Centers With New Pool of Investor Capital

Anthropic Takes Aim at OpenAI’s ChatGPT in Super Bowl Ad Debut

Some Brands Aren’t Spending Like YouTube Is the New TV

N.F.L. Eyes New TV Deals Before the Old Ones Even Expire

Disney’s CEO Pick Shows It’s a Tourism Company Now

What Happens When the Winter Olympics Can’t Rely on Winter

Meat Processors Take a Hit as Cattle Prices Remain High

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CWS Market Review – February 3, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 3rd, 2026 at 5:40 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Trump Selects Kevin Warsh to Lead the Fed

One week ago, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high. Since then, the index broke above 7,000, but it hasn’t been able to close above that level.

In last week’s issue, I mentioned the big bull market in silver. Well, that came to an abrupt end on Friday as the price of silver plunged on world markets.

By the end of Friday’s trading, silver had lost 27%. That was the white metal’s biggest one-day loss in 45 years. Silver dropped again on Monday. Last week, silver got as high as $120 an ounce, then as low as $71 an ounce. Gold dropped sharply as well.

So what caused gold and silver to fall off a cliff? On Friday, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. He’s seen as a more “hawkish” candidate than what had been expected. Gold and silver love lower interest rates, but higher rates are their kryptonite.

In many ways, the selection of Warsh is both a conventional choice and a very unconventional choice. Warsh is largely within the mainstream of economic thought. Plus, he’s already served on the Federal Reserve board. In fact, he was the youngest member in the Fed’s history, and he helped shape the Fed’s response to the financial crisis. Warsh is currently a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford.

Warsh still needs to be confirmed by the Senate but that shouldn’t be a major obstacle, and the betting markets appear to agree. If confirmed, Warsh would be leading a Fed that’s at an important juncture. Jerome Powell has been harshly criticized by President Trump who wants to see much lower interest rates. While inflation has subsided in recent months, it’s still above the Fed’s target of 2%. Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

Warsh will likely face some doubts from members of Congress as to his independence from political pressure. Historically, the Fed has tried to distance itself from political pressures, but these efforts have not always been successful.

Of course, the Fed is also facing an investigation by the Justice Department for actions surrounding the Fed’s new building. I suspect this won’t get far. Thom Tillis, a Republican senator of North Carolina, said he wouldn’t support any nominee until the DOJ’s investigation has concluded.

For much of his career, Warsh was been seen as an inflation hawk, meaning someone who has favored higher interest rates. That probably helped cause the big drop in gold and silver. Only recently has Warsh been critical of higher rates. He has also said that tariffs will not lead to higher inflation.

On Truth Social, President Trump said of Warsh, “He will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.” Bear in mind that we don’t get new Fed Chairs very often. In the last 75 years, there have only been eight Fed chairs.

President Trump has often said that he wanted to fire Jerome Powell, but that’s a tricky area legally. The president probably can’t fire a Fed chair over a simple policy dispute. In fact, the Supreme Court is currently looking at the case of Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, whom Trump wanted to fire from the Fed. The Supreme Court appears to be leaning against Trump’s decision.

We should also remember that the Federal Reserve isn’t just one person. The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rate policy, is a 19-member committee. Even with that, only 12 members are voting members. The 12 are composed of the seven Federal Reserve board members plus five regional bank presidents. The head of the New York Fed is a permanent member, and the four other seats rotate.

The Fed recently voted to keep interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%. Two members dissented. They wanted lower rates immediately. Futures traders currently expect the Fed to cut rates two more times this year.

Mr. Warsh has been very critical of the Fed in recent years. In particular, he blames the Fed for missing the surge in inflation during Covid. He was also against the Fed’s quantitative easing policies.

Now here’s where things get interesting. Warsh’s father-in-law is Ronald Lauder who is an heir to the Estee Lauder fortune. Lauder is estimated to be worth $5 billion. He’s been a big supporter of President Trump and a major financial backer of Republican candidates. In 1989, he ran for mayor of New York City but lost in the primary to Rudy Giuliani. It’s been reported that he encouraged Donald Trump to buy Greenland. Obviously, Warsh can’t be assumed to share his father-in-law’s views, but I’m sure Congress will ask him.

I expect Warsh to be confirmed by the Senate and he will generally try to steer the Fed toward lowering interest rates, but Warsh may not always get his way. Historically, reality has an odd way of interfering with the bold plans of money politics.

Speaking of which, my friend Gary Alexander notes that this time of year has been notable for several important events in the history of gold, silver and money. Here’s a sample:

At 9:30 on February 5, 1894, J.P. Morgan stormed into President Cleveland’s White House office and demanded an audience. After cooling his heels while Cleveland called the Treasury for details on what this invasion might mean, Morgan was ushered in. By now, the U.S. only had $9-million in gold to meet claims, and there were $12-million in current drafts against a shrinking supply, so President Cleveland sheepishly asked Morgan, “Well, sir, what would you suggest?” This comment passed the power of the purse from the White House to Morgan and Wall Street. In short order, Morgan saved the Treasury with an infusion of gold from London. From 1895 to his death in 1913, Morgan served as America’s central banker – and he did a better job than the Federal Reserve did in its first 20-years, from 1913 to 1933.

This Friday, the government will release the January jobs report. The last few job reports haven’t been that good. In its last policy statement, the Fed noted that “job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.”

The ADP payroll report is due out tomorrow. For that report, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 45,000 jobs. For Friday, economists estimate that the economy created 60,000 net new jobs in January. They’re also pegging the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

For hourly average earnings, economists expect to see a gain of 0.3% for last month, and a 3.7% gain for the last 12 months. This is an important stat. Wage growth has a way of quickly becoming business revenue and that becomes a profit. If employment continues to be weak, that may help the interest rate doves on the FOMC.

This continues to be a good earnings season for Wall Street. The S&P 500 is on pace to post earnings growth of 11.9% for Q4. If this holds up, it will be the fifth quarter in a row that the index has delivered a double-digit increase in profits. The last time it reported five straight quarters of 10% or more earnings growth was in 2017 and 2018. Analysts currently expect the S&P 500 to have double-digit earnings growth for all four quarters of 2026.

Analysts have been busy raising their Q4 earnings estimates. At the end of Q3, Wall Street had been expecting earnings growth for Q4 of just 7.2%. By the end of Q4, that forecast was raised to 8.34%. Now it’s at 11.9%. For the tech sector, Q4 earnings growth is tracking at 29.8%.

The overall net profit margin is currently running at 13.2%. That’s very high. If it holds, it will stand as the highest profit margin since FactSet started tracking this data in 2009. The current record is 13.1% which happened last quarter.

Technology has increased its profit margin from 26.8% last year to 29.0% this year. Industrials are up to 12.5% from 10.7% last year. Wall Street expects to see profit margins get even higher. By Q3, analysts expect profits to be over 14%.

That’s all for now. Expect more earnings news this week. We also have the big jobs report on Friday. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

P.S. From S&P Global Intelligence: Over the past 59 years, the median combined final score of the Super Bowl has been 47 points. When the two teams score 47 or more points, the S&P 500 posts an average return of +17.8%. When the combined score is less than 47 points, the average return is only +6.6%.

Go offense!

Morning News: February 3, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 3rd, 2026 at 7:05 am

The Global Economy’s Warning Signals Are Broken

ECB Survey Records ‘Unexpected’ Tightening in Bank Lending

Top Consulting Firms Test Boundaries with China Workarounds

Abu Dhabi Builds a New Deal Machine Around Its Crown Prince

Trump and India Call Off Their Trade War, but the Terms of Peace Are Murky

Modi Got a Nice US Deal. But What Did He Give Away?

US Foreign Policy Is Now Medieval

In Trump’s Fraud Crackdown, Political Foes Face Harshest Scrutiny

Trump’s Base Is Tiring of Him at a Bad Time

Here’s The Real Reason Gold Prices Plunged — And Why The Selloff Likely Isn’t Over Yet

On the National Debt, Left and Right Have Become One

This Tax-Refund Bonanza Won’t Do What Bessent Says It Will

The US Economy Needs the Hudson River Tunnel Project

What Kevin Warsh Learned Working for Stanley Druckenmiller

The Arguments Made by Coinbase and Others Don’t Add Up

Let Coinbase and Others Truly Compete With Banks for Deposits

The High Cost of Good Intentions, Credit Card Edition

PayPal Replaces CEO Chriss After Profit Falls Short of Estimates

U.S. Manufacturing Is in Retreat and Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Helping

Trump Unveils $12 Billion Critical Minerals Stockpile

Why China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Is So Hard to Break

Siemens Energy to Spend $1 Billion to Boost Manufacturing of Electrical-Grid Equipment

Orsted Sells Onshore Business for $1.7 Billion After Judge Rules U.S. Wind Project Can Resume

Chinese Tech Stocks Near Bear Market as Tax Concerns Mount

Data Services Stocks Sink After Anthropic Launches Legal Tool

What Oracle Has to Lose From OpenAI and Nvidia’s Rocky Relationship

Apple’s iPhone 17 Upgrades Hit the Spot for Chinese Consumers

China Bans Retractable Door Handles on Cars as Safety Concerns Grow

The Accounting Behind Music Royalties In the Streaming Era

Disney Warns of Hit From Flagging Foreign Visits

PepsiCo to Cut Prices for Doritos and Other Snacks

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Morning News: February 2, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 2nd, 2026 at 6:11 am

South Korea Exports Off to Strong Start in 2026

Squeezed Between Trump and China, India Looks for Faraway Friendships

Britain’s China Engagement Is a Message to America

China Has Withstood the Export Restrictions That Hold the U.S. Back

How China Uses a ‘National Team’ to Influence Trading

Luxury Brands Need a Comeback in China. They Shouldn’t Count on It.

Japan PM Takaichi Must Face Bond Investors Before Winning Over Voters

The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment

The Key to Managing Tariffs: Be Big and Have the President’s Ear

There’s a Perception Gap With the U.S. Economy

Gold Plunge Deepens as Traders Unwind ‘Crowded’ Bets on Rally

Rookie Trader’s Rapid 84% Wipeout Shows Depth of China Gold Bust

Meet the Young Men Rushing Into Betting Markets

Private Credit Is Headed for a Software Shock

Warsh’s Return Revives Tensions Over the Fed’s $6.6 Trillion QE Hangover

Saying You Want to Shrink the Fed Is One Thing. Doing It Is Another.

Kevin Warsh’s Three Tasks: Shrink the Fed, Tame Inflation, Manage the President

A Hawk or a Dove? Understanding Kevin Warsh

U.A.E. Firm Quietly Took Stake in the Trump Family’s Crypto Company

Will the Spirit of 1976 Come to 2026?

Move Fast, but Obey the Rules: China’s Vision for Dominating A.I.

Trump’s UAE Chip Deal Is a National Security Risk

AI Could Vastly Improve Healthcare While Bringing Down Its Costs

Oracle to Raise Up to $50 Billion in 2026 for Cloud Buildup

Target’s New C.E.O. Faces Hometown Crisis as He Begins Turnaround Effort

French Firm to Sell Division That Helps ICE Track Immigrants

Metals Traders Lose at Least $144 Million as ‘Hat’ Flees China

The Hottest Commodity in the Mining Business: American Generals

Carvana’s Red-Hot Growth Runs on a Cycle of Borrowed Money

Building Suppliers’ Earnings Hurt by US Shutdown, Storm Reprieve

Snow Drought in the West Reaches Record Levels

Western Ski Resorts and Their Terrible, Horrible, No Snow, Very Bad Year

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Morning News: January 30, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 30th, 2026 at 7:03 am

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Despite Trump’s Tariffs

Trump Picks Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

Wall Street Reacts as Warsh Selected by Trump as Next Fed Chair

Will Warsh Do What Trump Wants?

Dollar Fears Are Flaring as Trump Rekindles Debasement Trade

Private Assets Will Benefit From Fed’s Openness to Rate Cuts

Gold and Silver Plunge as Wild Swings Rock Metals Markets

Trump’s Crackdown on Defense Dividends Should Worry Retirees and Investors

Judge Rules Bank of America Must Face Lawsuit Over Jeffrey Epstein Ties

New Jersey Governor’s Electricity Obsession Is a Warning

A Tax Cut for ‘Working Families’ Does Nothing For Economic Growth

Panic in Miami: Haitians Confront Suddenly Losing Legal Status

Trump Deal to Avert Major Shutdown Set to Miss Funding Deadline

Senate, White House Look for a Way Out of ICE Funding Fight

Kristi Noem Is Also Failing at Running FEMA

Goodbye Arms Control, Hello Nuclear Anarchy

Panama High Court Gives Trump a Win Over Canal by Ousting Hong Kong Port Operator

Sanctioned Vessels, Pursuits at Sea: Tanker Trackers Keep Tabs

Exxon, Chevron Post Slimmest Annual Profits Since 2021

Chevron Sees Self-Funding Model in Venezuela to Safeguard Cash

A Fight Against Russian Oil Hits Lukoil Station Owners in the U.S.

Chinalco, Rio Tinto to Buy Control of Brazilian Aluminum Maker

The End of the Model S Is the Start of a New Tesla

Apple Gives Itself the Toughest Act to Follow

LG Electronics Reports First Net Loss in a Year

Verizon Posts Strong Subscriber Gains in Its First Quarter Under New CEO

Walmart’s New CEO Takes Over With $1 Trillion Valuation in Reach

End of Amazon Go Marks Retreat From Effort to Reinvent Physical Stores

Uniqlo’s Billionaire Founder Wants Tenfold US Growth. Early Signs Are Good

Colgate-Palmolive Swings to a Loss on Charges

Church & Dwight Logs Sales Growth

Twix Is OK but Granola Isn’t as States Deploy New Food Stamp Rules

Can This Man Break Disney’s Succession Curse?

The GameStop CEO Has an Audacious Plan to Clinch His $35 Billion Payday

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