Morning News: April 9, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 9th, 2025 at 7:03 am

India’s Millions of New Investors Are Reeling From Tariff Turmoil

China Condemns American ‘Protectionism’

Stocks Tumble as China Retaliates With 84% Tariff on US Goods

European Officials to Vote Today on First Retaliatory Tariffs

ECB Should Cut Key Rate as Euro Stages Surprise Rally, Villeroy Says

Tectonic Shifts in Global Trade Represent New Risk, Says Russian Central Bank

One of America’s Biggest Ports Fears a Cargo Slump Is Next

Trump Says Pharmaceutical Tariffs Coming ‘Very Shortly’

India’s Drug Makers Shudder as Trump Again Threatens Tariffs

Dalio Sees Once-a-Lifetime Collapse in Economic, Political Order

104% Is Doubling Down on Dumb

Inflation Is a Mind Game, Too

Treasuries ‘Fire Sale’ Sends Long-Term Yields Soaring Worldwide

U.S. Bond Sell-Off is Another Worrisome Echo of the Liz Truss Fiasco

A Severe Test Lies Ahead for the Federal Reserve

Shadow Banks Are Too Big to Stay in the Shadows

Big Banks’ Record Trading Streak Overshadowed by Tariff Upheaval

Trump Tariffs Threaten Spread of Big Batteries on the Power Grid

Five Takeaways From Trump’s Plan to Rescue Coal

How Trump Is Putting Law Firms in a No-Win Situation

A $12,800 Tariff Hit Has Some Homebuilders Eyeing Side Gigs

Apple Supplier Luxshare to Maintain Vietnam Production Hub to Support U.S. Market

Delta Pulls Outlook as Trump’s Trade War Squeezes Air Travel

Airlines’ Dreams of a Banner Year Are Over

Walmart Maintains Sales Forecast Despite Tariff Pressure

Volkswagen Vehicle Deliveries Rise Despite China Weakness

Gold Rolexes See Sharp Rise in Demand as Metal Hits Records

The Strange Case of an Hermès Heir, an Emir and a Deal Gone Wrong

Harry’s Razor Brand Seeks to Build a Consumer Goods Empire

Can Hobby Lobby, With Its Conservative Principles, Win Over New York?

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

CWS Market Review – April 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 8th, 2025 at 6:32 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

This has been the most raucous week on Wall Street since the Covid panic from five years ago. President Trump’s tariff policies have spooked investors all over the world. In two days last week, Thursday and Friday, the S&P 500 lost a combined 10.5%. If that loss had happened in one day instead of two, it would rank as the fourth worst loss of all time.

On Monday, the stock market had an especially volatile morning. In just eight minutes, the S&P 500 rallied 5.66%. It then promptly lost 4.37% over the next seven minutes. We’re talking about several trillion dollars magically appearing and disappearing during less time than a lunchbreak.

What happened? Well, that’s a good question. It appears that Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, was being interview on Fox News. During the interview he was asked if the president was considering a 90-day pause for his tariff policies. Hassett clearly gave a non-committal answer (“the president is going to decide what the president is going to decide.”)

Somehow someone on Twitter took that for a yes and tweeted it out. That was from a small account (less than 1,000 followers), but soon a much larger account known as “Walter Bloomberg” reposted it, and suddenly, this was taken as serious news on Wall Street.

I should add that Walter Bloomberg is not connected with Bloomberg, the financial news service. His tweet came out at 10:11 am and by 10:12 am, CNN reported that cheers erupted on the floor of the NYSE. I guess that’s a good barometer of how unpopular the tariffs are on Wall Street.

At CNBC, the anchors were completely baffled by the market’s surge and by 10:15 am, they were reporting on the news. Soon Reuters was referencing CNBC but they were only going on what Twitter was saying. Soon people were referencing people who were referencing people who were just making things up.

Here’s a minute-by-minute chart of the last five days for the S&P 500. You can really see how volatile Monday was:

The White House denied the reports and Walter Bloomberg deleted his tweet, but the damage was already done. This is a good reminder than Wall Street is a place where rumors and fake news can lead to very real panics. Financial markets are made up of normal people and they can be as volatile as anybody, if not more so, especially in the short run. It took some time yesterday for traders to realize they had been duped.

Between yesterday’s high and low, the Dow swung by nearly 2,600 points. Trading volume on Monday reached 29 billion shares which is an all-time record. The previous record was 26.4 billion shares which came on Friday.

Before the ruckus started, Wall Street was having a terrible day on Monday. At one point, shortly after yesterday’s open, the S&P 500 was trading down more than 4.7%. The market was on pace for its third awful day in a row. Measuring from the intra-day peak in February to Monday’s low, the S&P 500 lost 21.35%, making this an official bear market.

By no means will I suggest that the fear has subsided. Any big rally that starts below the 200-day moving average is considered guilty until it can prove its innocence.

This morning’s rally didn’t last either. The S&P 500 rallied by 4% then fell by 6%. Today was the fourth day in a row that the S&P 500 had a trading range of more than 5%. The S&P 500 finished the day at its lowest closing level since February 21, 2024.

Investors are still very concerned about the tariffs, and the White House is showing little signs of reversing course. The duty against China will be 104%. The tariffs are due to kick in at midnight tonight. These will be our highest tariffs since 1909; yes, even higher than Smoot-Hawley.

Every nation in the world will have a minimum 10% tariff plus half of their trade deficit. Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the two small French islands off the coast of Canada, now face 50% tariffs even though they exported a grand total of $3.4 million to us in 2023.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that 70 countries have approached the U.S. for tariff negotiations. There are hopes that a deal—any deal—can soon be reached, but there’s no concrete evidence that any deal is coming soon.

Name-calling has even broken out between Peter Navarro, a senior counselor to the president, and Elon Musk, the head of DOGE. Navarro said that Musk doesn’t make cars, he assembles them. In response, Musk called Navarro a “moron,” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.”

One of the points I’ve made about investing is that for the vast majority of the time, the stock market is pretty boring. Markets tend to go up slowly but consistently. Then, for a very brief period, markets throw a temper tantrum. In a very short time, stocks fall fast and hard.

We’re in such a period right now. In fact, we could be behind it already, but we can’t say for certain until after the fact. My guess is that we’re not done quite done yet. Today’s rally is nice, but I won’t fully trust this market until we’re well clear of the 200-day moving average.

The Jobs Market Is Still Healthy

Lately on Wall Street, there’s been a lot of talk about “hard” versus “soft” economic reports. By soft, we mean emotion-based reports like consumer confidence, economic surveys or even the stock market. By hard, we mean concrete data like jobs or industrial production. The soft reports have been quite weak, but the hard data is still holding firm.

I suspect that we’ll soon see some weakness in the hard reports. For example, I’ve always been a believer that the stock market plays a role in consumer spending. Happy stocks make for happy shoppers. When the Dow drops a few thousand points, folks get leery about buying big-ticket items.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March jobs report, a very hard data report, and it was mostly a good report. Bear in mind that this was before the stock market started to get nervous.

Last month, the U.S. economy added 228,000 net new jobs. Wall Street had been expecting a gain of 140,000. The unemployment rate ticked higher from 4.1% to 4.2%. I looked at the decimals and found that the real increase was only 0.013%.

The president posted on Truth Social, “GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S ALREADY WORKING. HANG TOUGH, WE CAN’T LOSE!!!”

The jobs gain for January was revised down 14,000 to 111,000. February was revised lower by 34,000 to 117,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% last month. That was in line with the consensus.

For March, health care was the leading growth area, consistent with prior months. The industry added 54,000 jobs, almost exactly in line with its 12-month average. Other growth areas included social assistance and retail, which both added 24,000, while transportation and warehousing showed a 23,000 increase.

Federal government positions declined by just 4,000, despite the Elon Musk-led efforts, through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, to pare the federal workforce. However, the BLS noted that workers on severance or paid leave are counted as employed. A report Thursday from consultancy firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that DOGE-related layoffs have totaled more than 275,000 so far.

The U-6 rate, which is a broader reading of unemployment, fell to 7.9%. Last month, full-time workers increased by 459,000, while part-timers fell by 44,000.

Tomorrow, the Fed will release the minutes from its most recent meeting. I’ll be curious to see how much they discussed the tariffs. On Thursday, we’ll get the CPI report for March. The last report showed that core inflation fell to a four-year low. Traders are closely divided on the need for two 0.25% Fed rate cuts coming by June. Or possibly, they see one 0.5% rate cut.

Get ready because Friday will also be the unofficial kickoff of Q1 earnings season. Several big banks and financial institutions such as JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and BlackRock are due to report. Expect the market to remain volatile.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: April 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 8th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Trump’s Tariffs and China Collide to Shock the $115 Trillion Global Economy

China Vows ‘Fight to the End’ on Tariffs as It Props Up Markets

China Urges Shein to Halt Supply-Chain Shift After Tariffs

EU Chief and Chinese Premier Discuss Potential Oversupply of Goods

Panama Casts Doubt on BlackRock Canal Ports Deal Touted by Trump

Milei Tries Erasing Argentina’s History to Lure Foreign Investment

How Mexico Emerged From Tariff Broadside With an Edge Over Asia

Canada’s Economy Is Starting to Crack Under Trade-War Pressure

Market Chaos Could Inflict Its Own Economic Damage

US Stock Futures Rise as Dip Buyers Emerge After Selloff

US Bonds Stabilize After Choppiest Day of Trading in Five Years

The World Suddenly Has a Plausible Alternative to US Treasuries

Traders Bet ‘Insane’ Currency Volatility Is Here to Stay

Levin: Shaking Faith in US Safe Havens Is a Dangerous Gamble

El-Erian: The Fed Must Resist Repeating Past Mistakes

Felsted: This Market Slide Won’t End Until Companies Come Clean

CEOs Break Silence on Trump Trade War

Billionaires Seek to Take Companies Private Amid Market Mayhem

Auto Manufacturers Urge Leaders on Both Sides of Atlantic to Lower Tariffs

Continental Mulls Sale of ContiTech Business

BYD Guides for Strong Earnings in Move to Shore Up Market Confidence

American Whiskey Braces for Another Trump Trade War

Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth—and It’s Costing Them

Apple’s Historic Selloff Has Bulls Balking From Tariff Risks

Why a Plane-Size Machine Could Foil a Race to Build Gas Power Plants

Microsoft’s Expensive Data Center Expansion Hits a Roadblock

Walgreens Tops Profit Estimates as Health-Care Unit Improves

Global Art Sales Fell by 12% Last Year, Report Says

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 7th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Global Stocks Plunge, Extending Rout Caused by Trump’s Tariffs

After a Blowout Week, Wall Street Decision Makers Brace for More Chaos

Trump, Unbowed, Is Enacting Change on Scale Rarely Seen Before

Trump Says Tariffs Are Reciprocal. They Aren’t.

Trump Created an Economic Sinkhole. He Doesn’t Care

Wall Street Thought Trump Was One of Them. Wrong!

Jamie Dimon Warns Tariffs Will Raise Prices, Slow Growth

Eurozone Investor Sentiment Nosedives as Market Rout Intensifies

European Aerospace, Defense Stocks Plunge Amid Global Recession Woes

German Industrial Production Declines as Sector Braces for Tariffs

Europe Is Ready to Make Its First Countermove to Trump Tariffs

For This Frozen Fries Company, Trade Wars Are an Existential Crisis

Goldman Sachs Raises Odds of US Recession to 45%, Second Hike in a Week

Stagflation Is Now America’s Best-Case Scenario

How Global Trade Could Survive Trump’s Tariffs

China Tries to Downplay the Trade War’s Effects on Its Economy

China Discusses Accelerating Stimulus to Counter Trump Tariffs

‘The Tsunami Is Coming’: China’s Global Exports Are Just Getting Started

Tariffs Are Dragging Down Even Companies Without US Exports

Trump’s Trade War Raises Bar for Fed Rate Cuts

Trump Leaves Emerging Market Central Banks with No Clean Choices

Deutsche Bank Raises Average Gold Price Forecasts for 2025 and 2026

Demand for Dollars from Non-U.S Investors Surges as Stocks Crumble

Woodside to Sell 40% Stake in Louisiana LNG Infrastructure to Stonepeak

Shell Lowers Gas Production Guidance After Unplanned Maintenance Hit Volumes

LG Electronics Expects Lower Quarterly Operating Profit

Google AI Search Shift Leaves Website Makers Feeling ‘Betrayed’

What Luxury Sells in a Trade War? Not the Bold Designs Brands Were Banking On

How X Is Benefiting as Musk Advises Trump

Tesla Shares Plunge Below Lutnick’s ‘Never This Cheap’ Level

Gulf Coast Shrimpers See Hope in Trump’s Tariffs

How Contracting Work Became a Race to the Bottom

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 4th, 2025 at 7:01 am

German Factory Orders Stagnated in February Despite Hints of Frontloading

European Bank Stocks Extend Losses From Tariff Fallout

Trump’s Threats and Tariffs Are a Global ‘Kill Switch’

A Market-Rattling Attempt to Make the American Economy Trump Always Wanted

To Trump, U.S. Economy Is a ‘Sick Patient’ and Tariffs Are the Cure

Americans Rush to Buy TVs, Soy Sauce, Lululemon Workout Gear

Trump’s Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs

Trump Blocked America’s Front Door to China. Now He’s Closing Back Doors.

Will Trump’s Tariffs Drive Europe Into China’s Arms, or Into a Fight?

The Rest of the World Is Bracing for a Flood of Cheap Chinese Goods

Tariffs Drive Another Market Meltdown

That Smashing Sound Is Piggy Banks Around the World

After Tariff Shock, Trump May Weaponise Finance Against Allies

Traders Boost Bets on Fed Cuts as Jobs Data Adds to Market Angst

How to Protect Your Retirement Savings Now as Markets Plunge

One of the Fed’s Top Recession Alarms Sends 2008-Style Signal

Finance Needs to Be Prepared for the Unexpected

More People Are Bringing Lunch to Work. That’s a Bad Economic Indicator.

Where Will Consumers Go?

Billionaires Lose Combined $208 Billion in One Day From Trump Tariffs

Businesses Pounce as GOP Weighs Limiting Corporate SALT Break

Oil Slides to Four-Year Low on Hit From Tariffs and OPEC Supply

Trump’s Threatened Tariff on Buyers of Venezuelan Oil Could Squeeze China

Brookfield Buys Oil-Pipeline Firm Colonial Enterprises for $9 Billion

BP Chairman Helge Lund to Step Down Amid Push for Changes at Oil Major

E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk’s X

Apple Plunges 9%, Leading a Tech Sell-Off

Mexican Minister Says Investment in Volvo Factory to Rise

Tesla Estimates Cut Further on ‘Unprecedented Brand Damage’

Hershey Strikes $750 Million Deal for LesserEvil Popcorn Brand

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 3, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 3rd, 2025 at 7:02 am

Trump Tariffs Aim to Bring Down Curtain on Era of Globalization

A Stunned World Reckons With Economic Fallout From Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s Tariffs Aim to Create a New World Economic Order

China Will Face at Least 54 Percent Tariffs With Trump’s New Order

Japan Lacks a ‘Viable Option’ for Retaliating to Trump’s Tariffs

Southeast Asian Economies Brace for Critical Tariff Hit

How Might Central Banks React to Trump’s New Tariffs?

EU’s Von Der Leyen Vows Response to Trump’s 20% Tariffs

Trump’s Tariffs Pose a New Threat for Germany’s Stagnant Economy

Swiss Inflation Holds Steady as Tariffs Set to Buffet Economy

Trump Loathes VATs. Do They Really Put US Exporters at a Disadvantage?

‘It’s a Disaster’: Global Markets Slide After Trump Unveils Tariffs

US Stocks Bear the Brunt of Tariff-Induced Selloff

Tariff Worry Hits Dollar as Euro Jumps Most in Decade

Traders Bet on More Fed Cuts With 10-Year Yield Headed Toward 4%

Commodities Hit as Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Demand and Economy

How Trade Wars Impact the Green Transition — What We Know So Far

You Can NOT Be Serious!

Who, Exactly, Is Trump Liberating With Tariffs?

Tariffs Are Just Tip of the Iceberg for Panicked CEOs

Trump’s $1.6 Trillion Corporate Pledge Parade: What’s Real, What’s Not

Trump Is Promising a Manufacturing Renaissance. Is That Even Possible?

Auto Tariffs Take Effect, Putting Pressure on New Car Prices

China Says It Has Agreed to EV Tariffs Negotiations With EU

Microsoft Pulls Back on Data Centers From Chicago to Jakarta

Makers of Sporting-Goods Tumble After U.S. Tariffs on Key Manufacturers

Cayman Islands Builds $74 Billion Insurance Hub That Irks Apollo

Trump Maneuvers for a TikTok Deal While China Waits Silently Off Stage

Pinduoduo to Invest More Than $13 Billion Over Three Years to Support Merchants

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 2, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 2nd, 2025 at 7:05 am

Trouble with a Capital ‘T’

Trump Is Set to Unveil Expansive Global Tariffs

How ‘Liberation Day’ Might Go Down

Here’s How Former USTR Tai Will Scrutinize Trump Tariff Day

China’s Tariff-Dodging Move to Mexico Looks Doomed

A Canadian Company’s Tariff ‘Double Whammy’ Highlights Trouble for the Economy

Could Tariffs Raise $700 Billion a Year? Not Without Pain

U.S. Factory Activity Retreated in March on Tariff Concerns

An American Mine Still Has Millions of Tons of Copper, If Companies Can Get to It

Wall Street Is Rewriting Its Energy-Sector Playbook

US-Led Cooperation Beats Conflict Every Time

Investors Bet Clarity on Tariffs Will Bring Stability to Markets

Goldman Picks Yen as Top Hedge Against US Recession, Tariff Risk

Wall Street Trading Desks Warn S&P 500 Selloff Will Get Worse

Michael Bloomberg: America Is Headed for a Grim Fiscal Reckoning

Consulting Giants Offer Billions in Cuts to Federal Contracts. It Might Not Be Enough.

Inside Elite Law Firms, Protests and Quitting After Trump Deals

Visa Bids $100 Million to Replace Mastercard as Apple’s New Credit Card Partner

Tesla Sales Are Slumping, Even in the Most E.V.-Friendly Place

A Big Coal Plant Was Just Imploded to Make Way for an AI Data Center

Trump Set to Meet With Top Aides to Decide TikTok’s Fate

More Americans Can’t Afford Medical Care, Gallup Poll Finds

Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback

Ben & Jerry’s Co-Founder Calls on Unilever to ‘Set Us Free’

Chuck Todd Wants You to Meet the Pods

Tinder’s Flirting AI Chatbots Play Hard to Get

The Hottest Denim Brand of the ’00s Turns to Hip-Hop for Its Resurrection

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

CWS Market Review – April 1, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2025 at 6:23 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Yesterday was the last day of trading for the first quarter of 2025. Overall, it was a tough quarter for the stock market. For the first three months of this year, the S&P 500 lost 4.59%.

This broke a five-quarter winning streak for the market. Going back further, the S&P 500 turned a profit in eight of the last nine quarters, not counting the first quarter of 2025.

At the very beginning, the market got off to a nice start this year. By February 19, the index was up close to 4.5% for the year. Since then, however, things fell apart.

It really has been a tale of two markets — before February 19 and after. Before 2/19, the market acted very much as it had for several months. The risky stocks were doing well, and the conservative stocks lagged behind. After February 19, the script flipped. It’s the risky areas of the market that haven’t been doing well while conservative sectors are having their moment in the sun.

Here’s a remarkable stat. Despite the overall market’s loss during Q1, 305 stocks outperformed the index, and the average stock lost 0.89%. In plain English, the big boys were finally feeling the pain. Most other stocks did just fine.

Yesterday was a very unusual trading day because the market started out very weak, but it gained strength during the trading day. At one point, the S&P 500 was trading below its close from March 13, which suggests that the market correction isn’t over.

Also during yesterday’s market. the S&P 500 traded below 5,600 and reached its lowest intra-day level in more than six months. In fact, the S&P 500 is very nearly flat for the last nine months. Think of it this way: six months of gains were wiped out in the last six weeks.

There’s an ETF I like to track, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which is probably the best proxy for the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. The MAGS ETF lost nearly 16% during Q1. Here’s a look at MAGS (in black) versus the S&P 500 (in blue).

The real difference this year is that stocks based outside the United States are finally doing well while the U.S. market is trailing. For several years, the U.S. market was beating up on everyone else. I heard many predictions that this would turn, and they were all wrong. Now they finally may be right.

One area of the market that’s been weak and doesn’t seem to be getting any better is small-caps. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks fell to its lowest point relative to the S&P 500 since 2001. Gold beat the S&P 500 by 23.6% in the first quarter.

This was a very good quarter for our Buy List, at least in a relative sense. Through the end of closing on Monday, the Buy List gained 0.89%. No, that’s not a huge gain, but it’s a lot better than the 4.59% loss for the overall market, and we did it while using a lot less risk.

Our “beta,” which is a measure of risk, was just 0.664 during Q1 which is quite conservative. Our biggest winner this year is Cencora (COR) which gained 23.8% during Q1. Other big winners were American Water (AWK, +18.5%), Abbott Labs (ABT, +17.3%) and Rollins (ROL, +16.6%).

Here’s how the ETF (in blue) has done over the past three years versus the S&P 500 (in red):

Wall Street is still very concerned by the White House’s tariff policies. Tomorrow is “Liberation Day” according to President Trump. We’re still not exactly clear on the details of President Trump’s plans for tariffs, and that’s probably why the stock market has been on edge.

The president has shown some signs of wanting to work with our economic partners in order to avoid increased tariffs. I really can’t guess what will happen. President Trump did impose some tariffs in his first term, but those were fairly small. He appears to be planning something much larger this time.

My foremost concern is how much damage there has been to the economy. So far, it’s not much, but that could soon change. There appears to be a disconnect in the economic data. The “soft” reports meanings things like surveys, consumer confidence and the stock market are alarmed. The “hard” data like jobs and GDP are holding up well.

Goldman Sachs recently raised its inflation forecast for this year to 3.5%. Goldman also cut its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1%. The bank also raised its unemployment target for this year to 4.5%.

On Tuesday, we got the ISM Manufacturing Index figure. For March, the ISM was 49.0. Any number below 50 signals a contraction. The ISM had been above 50 for the prior two months, but before that, it had been below 50 for 26 straight months. Generally speaking, recessions have aligned with ISM levels closer to 45. While this is a poor report, it’s not alarming.

There are a few more reports to look out for this week. Tomorrow, ADP will release its report on private payrolls. Wall Street expects a gain of 120,000. That’s not that much.

Wall Street also expects a gain of 0.3% for average hourly earnings. That’s also not that great. It’s basically in line with inflation.

On Thursday, we’ll get the initial claims report. The consensus on Wall Street is for 226,000. Then on Friday comes the March jobs report. On Wall Street, the monthly jobs report is the biggie. Economists expect a gain of 140,000 of nonfarm payrolls. If that’s right, it would be lower than three of the last four months.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: April 1, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2025 at 7:03 am

European Gas Price Falls as Injection Season Kicks in

Europe Faces Daunting Quest to Replenish Gas Reserves After Frigid Winter

EU Has Plan to Retaliate on U.S. Tariffs, Von der Leyen Says

China Says It Is Aiming to Coordinate Tariff Response With Japan, South Korea

How Trump’s Tariffs Are Hitting One Chinese Factory Owner: ‘We Are Helpless’

Trump Administration Tallies Trade Barriers That Could Prompt Tariffs

Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime.

Trump Says He Settled on ‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Plan, but Doesn’t Reveal It

Trump Advisers Battle Over Whether ‘Liberation Day’ Will Raise Tariffs or Lower Them

Reciprocal Tariffs? We’ve Seen This Movie Before

This Mexican Border Town Had Chaotic Trade-War Dress Rehearsal

Stocks Mark Worst Month in Years as Trump’s Tariffs Loom

New Quarter, Same Problems

US Recession Worries Raise ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investors

The Coming Recession Will Be Self-Inflicted

Goldman’s Big Bonuses for CEO, President Deemed ‘Poor Practice’ by ISS

Bill Ackman Becomes Chairman of Bremont After Lifting Stake

No Toilet Paper and No Privacy: Returning to the Office, Federal Workers Walk Into Chaos

As Trump Stokes Uncertainty, the Fed Asks Businesses Where It Hurts

Chipotle Went on a Seven-Year Quest to Find Avocados Outside of Mexico

US Chip Grants in Limbo as Lutnick Pushes Bigger Investments

OpenAI Finalizes $40 Billion Funding at $300 Billion Value

Hydrogen Trucking Companies Are Going Under

Ford Is as American as Apple Pie. Or Is That Honda?

What’s So Hard About Building Trains?

Nintendo Departs From Its Founding Philosophy With Switch 2

Amazon’s New Movie Strategy Starts With Theaters

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 31, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2025 at 7:04 am

Xi Showdown With Li Ka-shing Threatens China’s Pro-Business Push

China PMIs Show Some Signs of Economic Green Shoots Ahead of Tariffs

Why China Is Wary of a Trump-Xi Summit

The US Is Losing the Contest to Divide the World

Is This Really How American Exceptionalism Ends?

An April Pause Is an Option for the ECB, But Trump’s New Tariffs Loom

Trump’s Tariffs Mean Europe Must Take Control of Its Future, Says ECB’s Lagarde

Tariffs Keep Wall Street on Edge

Stocks Extend Losses With Deepening Tariff Fears

Tariffs on Screws Are Already Hitting Manufacturers

Smelters in Crisis Force Cutbacks at Glencore and Trafigura

Auto Stocks Fall After Trump Says He ‘Couldn’t Care Less’ About Higher Prices

Harley-Davidson Wants Payback if Europe Targets Its Bikes

South Korea’s Short-Selling Ban Has Ended. Will Global Investors Flock Back?

Hedge Funds Flee Techs Stocks Before Tariffs Take Hold, Says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Probability to 35%

Slow US Tax Collections Spark Angst About Debt Ceiling X-Date

The Era of Cheap Stuff Was Already Ending. Now Comes the Tariff Threat.

White House Weighs Helping Farmers as Trump Escalates Trade War

They Want More Babies. Now They Have Friends in the White House.

Musk Says DOGE Role Is Costing Him as Tesla Shares Slump

The Chinese Electric Vehicle Founder Who Wants In on Trump’s America

Huawei Posts Profit Drop But Revenue Signals Solid Comeback

The M&A Boom Wall Street Wanted Is Here, if You Know Where to Look

As Trump Squeezes the Immigrant Work Force, Employers Seek Relief

Rocket to Buy Mortgage Servicer Mr. Cooper in $9.4 Billion Deal

Yum Brands CEO David Gibbs to Retire in Early 2026

Ultra-Luxe Food Supplier Thrives on Cravings for Snow Crab and Wagyu Beef

The Army Has a Fast-Food Problem. Can a TV Chef Fix That?

Baseball’s Robot Umps Offer a Technology Tweak, Not an Upheaval, for the Game

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.