Morning News: March 28, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 28th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Xi Jinping Meets Global Business Leaders Amid Trade Tensions

Trump Could Hand China a ‘Strategic Victory’ by Silencing Voice of America

Europe’s Industrial Outlook Buoyed by Defense Drive

As Military Spending Soars, Demand for Spy-Proof Real Estate Booms

Trump’s Team Signal Chat Exposed US Spycraft to Adversaries

Obsessed With Greenland? You Too May Have the Wrong Map

In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.

Some European Nations Push for More Flexible 2025 Gas Storage Targets

Mining Company Seeks Trump Support to Shortcut Access to Seabed Metals

The Hunt for Critical Minerals Can’t Lead the US Astray

Nippon Steel Slumps on $7 Billion US Steel Investment Report

The Town That Went Crazy for Crypto

Value Stock Gains Need Fresh Catalyst With Earnings a Wild Card

A Missed Opportunity on VAT Haunts Trade War

U.S. Faces ‘Significant Risks’ From Debt, Analysts Say, as Trump Pursues Tax Agenda

Deal Slump Hits US High-Grade Bond Supply, Pressures Spreads

Trump’s Budget Chief Eyes Deep Cuts to ‘Woke and Weaponized’ Spending

The ‘Brocasters’ Have Listeners in a Chokehold

Trump’s Tariffs Leave Automakers With Tough, Expensive Choices

Trump Warned U.S. Automakers Not to Raise Prices in Response to Tariffs

U.S. Automobile Safety Regulator to Investigate Honda Engine Restart Complaints

The New Billionaires of the AI Boom

Efforts to Weed Out Fake Users for Online Advertisers Fall Short

Deception in Paradise

Ubisoft Shares Climb After Tencent Backs Assassin’s Creed Carveout

Is Ozempic Really the Reason Americans Are Snacking Less?

Sundance Picks Its New Home: Boulder, Colorado

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Morning News: March 27, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 27th, 2025 at 7:05 am

China Pauses New Deals With Li Ka-shing Family After Panama Ports Plan

Why Billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Panama Ports Deal Infuriates China

Why Trump Is Obsessed With Taking Over Greenland

Trump’s Auto Tariffs, Threats on Allies Intensify Trade War

Auto Stocks Tumble as Investors Assess Hit From Trump’s Tariffs

Trump Floats More EU, Canada Tariffs If They Work Against US

The UK Is a Hostage to Fortune in a World Roiled by Trump

Trade Policy Should Return to ‘Reason,’ Says ECB’s Villeroy

What Canada’s 300% Tariff on Dairy Imports Actually Means

Trump Floats Chinese Tariff Cuts in Exchange for TikTok Deal

Tariffs Won’t Bring a Boom in American Manufacturing

Trump and Musk Share the Founder’s Mindset

Government Contracting Is an Easy But Elusive Target

Elmo and Elon Musk Are Cited as G.O.P. Lawmakers Grill PBS and NPR

Climate Talk on S&P 500 Earnings Calls Drops by Three-Quarters

Economic Growth Now Depends on Electricity, Not Oil

This 4-Bedroom Ranch in N.J. Tells You Everything About the Lopsided Housing Market

Quitting Your Job Won’t Help You Get Paid More Money Right Now

UBS Declines as BofA Downgrades on Lack of Regulatory Clarity

Bankers Were Dreaming of M&A Riches Under Trump. It Hasn’t Worked Out, Yet

The Billionaire’s Town

TikTok Billionaire Zhang Becomes China’s Richest Person

Facebook Memoir Spotlights Meta’s About-Face on China

OpenAI Close to Finalizing $40 Billion SoftBank-Led Funding

Indians Spend a Trillion Hours on Their Phones, Pushing a $29.4 Billion Media Industry

FedEx Needs to Open the Lid on Its International Black Box

Next’s Shares Jump on Guidance Upgrade Against Tough Sector Backdrop

H&M Earnings Miss Forecasts on Higher Discounts and Costs

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Morning News: March 26, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 26th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Kenya Ditches Dream for Balanced Budget as Revenue Lags Target

LGBTQ Discrimination Costs East African Nations $5 Billion a Year, Study Finds

BOJ Governor Suggests Food Inflation Could Lead to Rate Hike

India Is on a Hiring Binge That Trump’s Tariffs Can’t Stop

The Art of the Deal Meets a Four-Power Axis

Years of Climate Action Demolished in Days: A Timeline

Dolphin Hunting Is Their Tradition. Rising Seas Have Made It a Lifeline.

Trump’s Tariff War Forces Allies to Choose Resistance or Surrender

Trump Weighs Imposing Copper Import Tariffs in Weeks, Not Months

U.S. Adds Export Restrictions to More Chinese Tech Firms Over Security Concerns

Why the Fed Wants to Keep More US Government Debt

US Stock Market Liquidity Drying Up as Trade War Concerns Mount

The Signal Leak Is Too Big to Sweep Under the Rug

Wall Street Bonus Pool Surges to a Record $47.5 Billion for 2024

Half of American Households Hold 97.5% of the National Wealth

Private Equity Is Coming for America’s $12 Trillion in Retirement Savings

Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Is Giving Way to Distress

At Paul Weiss, Panic, Poachers and a Fight for the Bottom Line

Shell Shocked: How Small Eateries Are Dealing With Record Egg Prices

Ad Forecaster Reduces Growth Prediction for 2025, Citing Poor Economic Visibility, Low Consumer Confidence

Phillips 66 Proposes New Board Members Amid Elliott Battle

French Tax Authorities Are Using AI to Clamp Down on Tax Fraud

Catastrophe Experts Tap AI to Tackle Soaring Insured Losses

With a U.S. Ban Looming, TikTok Portrays Itself as a Force for Good

Europe Rapidly Falling Behind China in Pharma, AstraZeneca CEO Warns

Dollar Tree to Sell Struggling Family Dollar for $1 Billion

‘Trump Slump’ Looms as Foreign Visitors Rethink Travel to U.S.

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CWS Market Review – March 25, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 25th, 2025 at 5:11 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Here are some stats to consider: Since 1966, the S&P 500 has had 12 bull markets and 12 bear markets. Over that time, the market has been in a bull market 80.2% of the time, and in a bear market the other 19.8% of the time.

During bull markets, the index has had an annualized average gain of 21.2% per year. In bear markets, it’s lost an average of 35.5% per year. Notice how the bear markets are short but sharp while the bulls are long and slow. That’s one of the important truths about investing.

Here’s another way of thinking about it. Imagine that instead of investing, you went to a special roulette table once a year on December 31. This roulette table, however, has some unusual rules.

At our roulette table, you have an 80% chance of making 20% on your money for the coming year, and a 20% chance of losing one-third of your money for the year.

You may not think this is a very comforting game since you have a very real chance of losing one-third of your money in any given year.

While this roulette is a product of my imagination, the payoffs are close to accurate, and, as in real investing, the key strategy is to keep playing the game because the odds are very much in your favor. That’s why so much of successful investing comes down to doing little and waiting. For some people, that’s too much to bear.

It’s easy to be reminded of this as the stock market recently had a very quick correction. The S&P 500 lost just over 10% in 16 trading days. I see plenty of folks debating whether we’re in a bear market or not, yet the market has already made back nearly half of what it lost.

This year’s bear market began five years to the date after the fantastic Covid-induced plunge of 2020. Five years ago, the market gave us a 20% surge in just three days, but 25 years ago, the market peaked on March 24, 2000. We didn’t reach another new high for 13 years.

SAIC Rallies on Earnings Beat

Two weeks ago, I told you about Science Applications International (SAIC) which is one of our Buy List stocks. I highlighted the company because the business performance has been quite good, but the stock has taken a big hit, especially since election day. I always pay attention when good stocks are taken down, especially for transient reasons.

Many investors suspected that SAIC’s contracts would be under the knife thanks to the new Department of Government Efficiency, but that’s an exaggerated threat. SAIC does so many things for the Pentagon. In fact, SAIC is ultimately a money saver for the DOD.

In September, SAIC reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $2.05 per share. That was a 20-cent beat. Then in December, it reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $2.61 per share. That was a 44-cent beat.

Yet the stock started to fall since election day. In November, SAIC was as high as $156 per share. Earlier this month, it dropped down to $95 per share. This is when prudent stock shoppers take notice.

We’ve been paying close attention to SAIC, and we’ve seen several reasons to keep the faith. For example, in December, SAIC’s board of directors authorized a buyback of $1.2 billion. That’s a strong show of confidence. At the end of last quarter, SAIC’s estimated backlog was approximately $22.4 billion.

SAIC had also raised its guidance. The company projected full-year earnings between $8.50 and $8.65 per share. That’s a big increase over the previous guidance range of $8.10 to $8.30 per share.

That brings us to the recent earnings report. For the year so far, SAIC has made $6.56 per share. That means the guidance implied Q4 earnings of $1.94 to $2.09 per share. Two weeks ago, I wrote, “I think there’s a good chance we’ll see an upside surprise.”

I was right.

Last Monday, SAIC said it made $2.57 per share. That’s up from $1.43 per share the year before. Quarterly revenues increased 5.8% to $1.84 billion.

For the year, SAIC made $9.13 per share. That’s up from $7.88 per share the prior year. The company had free cash flow of $499 million.

SAIC also raised guidance for the new fiscal year. The company now sees FY 2026 revenues ranging between $7.6 billion and $7.75 billion. That’s an increase of $50 million to the low end.

SAIC raised its full-year earnings guidance for the coming year to $9.10 to $9.30 per share. That’s an increase of 20 cents to both ends. On Monday after the earnings report, the stock rallied more than 7% for us. The stock closed today nearly 15% above its low from earlier this month. This is another good example of why it’s good to stand by high-quality stocks that run into a little trouble.

By the way, I talk more about our Buy List stocks like SAIC in our premium version which you can sign-up for here.

Consumer Confidence Plunges to 12-Year Low

Wall Street got an unpleasant shock this morning when a report on consumer sentiment dropped sharply. The Conference Board said its measure for future expectations fell 9.6 points to 65.2. That’s the lowest reading since late 2013. Traditionally, any reading below 80 has signaled that a recession is on its way.

The measure for current conditions fell 7.2 points to 92.9. Economists had been expecting a drop to 93.5. That was the index’s fourth monthly drop in a row.

I can’t say I’m completely surprised by this news. Just look at the stock market over the past month, and you can see that investors are clearly nervous. The report also shows that only 37.4% of respondents expect the stock market to be higher one year from today. That’s a drop of 10% in the last month. It’s also the first time that most investors are pessimistic since late 2023.

I’m a firm believer that the stock market is a driver of consumer spending (though not the only driver). Happy stocks make happy shoppers.

I looked at Polymarket today which is a site where you can bet on real world events. Bettors currently think there’s a 33% chance of a recession starting later this year. Bettors also expect growth for Q1 GDP to be about 1%. That’s not so good.

Traders think that the Fed will soon be back to cutting interest rates. The latest expectations are that the Fed will cut twice more this year, and there’s nearly a perfect 50-50 split on the need for a third rate cut.

On the plus side, today’s new homes sales report showed a modest rebound last month. The Census Bureau said that new home sales rose 1.8% to an annualized rate of 676,000. The numbers for January were revised higher as well.

Is the U.S. stock market out of its hole? That’s hard to say. The correction was swift, and we’ve already made nearly half of it back. One good item is that the stock market just barely tipped above its 200-day moving average. This is a dumb rule that has a pretty good track record. Historically, the market has done much better when it’s traded above its 200-DMA compared to when it’s below the 200-DMA. Still, I don’t think we’re in the clear just yet.

The next big test for the market will come next Friday, April 4, with the March jobs report. The labor market has shown a little weakness lately but nothing alarming. At least, not yet.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: March 25, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 25th, 2025 at 7:07 am

China’s Central Bank Tweaks Lending Tool in Sign of Policy Shift

China Frees Employees of U.S. Consulting Firm After 2-Year Detention

German Business Confidence Climbs After Lawmakers Unlock Spending Increase

In His Second Term, Trump Fuels a ‘Machinery’ of Misinformation

Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades

Trump’s Threat of ‘Secondary Tariffs’ Invents New Trade Weapon

Europe Should Hold Its Fire in Coming Tariff War

Potatoes, Shrimp and Teslas: Exporters Vie to Shape Trump’s Tariffs

UBS Top Strategist Sees Consumer Slowdown Hitting the S&P 500

US Consumers Slow Spending as Inflation Bites, Synchrony Says

U.S. Infrastructure Improves, but Cuts May Imperil Progress, Report Says

Trump, Big Law, and an ‘Existential Crisis’

Has the Decline of Knowledge Work Begun?

PBS and NPR Prepare for Showdown With Congress

China’s AI Push Turns Tech Titans Into National Champions

Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs

Emboldened by Trump, A.I. Companies Lobby for Fewer Rules

Google Is Searching for an Answer to ChatGPT

Shell to Increase Production, Shareholder Returns Under New Strategy

Boeing Gets Lifeline in Pentagon Deal to Build Most Expensive Jet Fighter Ever

Boeing Is Pushing to Withdraw Guilty Plea Agreement

Cathie Wood Sticks With Tesla, Predicts Stock to Hit $2,600

Tesla’s No.1 Rival Is Practically Taunting Elon Musk Now

Toyota Was Bullish on Trump. Then Came the Tariff Threats.

Hyundai to Invest $21 Billion in U.S. in Bid to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs

Mexico Should Roll Out the Asphalt Carpet for BYD

23andMe’s Bankruptcy Puts 15 Million Users’ DNA Info on Auction Block

The World’s Largest Whiskey Market Prepares for Trump Tariffs

Let Consumers Decide Whether to Eat Lab-Grown Meat

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Morning News: March 24, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 24th, 2025 at 7:00 am

Russia and the US Both Want to Finlandize the World

China Saves Fiscal Power for Trade War as Spending Progress Lags

Billion-Dollar US Levies on Chinese Ships Risk ‘Trade Apocalypse’

Europe’s Economic Activity Grows Weakly as Tariffs Loom

Germany Confirms Second-Quarter Debt Issuance of €92.5 Billion

U.K. Budget Could Dent Sterling on Any Missteps

Elliott Builds Stake in Japan’s Sumitomo Realty & Development

Under Pressure to Raise Wages, Japan’s Smaller Firms Get Creative

Farmers, Dockhands and Shipowners Fight Against U.S. Fees on Chinese Ships

US Treasuries Fall on Signs That Trump Will Dilute April Tariffs

Data-Hungry Investors Dive Deep for Economic Clues

The Economic Data Is as Cloudy as the Outlook

Dollar Weakness Becomes Profit Boon for US Multinationals

U.S. Could Run Out of Cash by July, Analysis Finds

Tariff Exclusion Hopes Prop Up Markets

Risky Bonds Aren’t So Risky in the Long Run

Smart-Money Crowd Feels Squeeze of Higher Equity-Funding Costs

US Banking Rule Reform Is Too Important to Rush

He Was Apollo’s Mr. Fix-It. Now He’s Trump’s Pick to Police Wall Street

Spec Homes Sitting on the Market Pose Potential Economic Drag

Americans Are Rushing to Get Off the Grid

Australia’s Gold Road Rejects $2.1 Billion Takeover Offer From Gold Fields

Jack Ma-Backed Ant Touts AI Breakthrough Using Chinese Chips

US Tech Manufacturing Efforts Run Smack Into Wright’s Law

Ford’s Fat Dividend Could be a Casualty of Tariffs

Novo Signs $2 Billion Deal With United Labs for Obesity Drug

Bayer Shares Plunge After U.S. Court Defeat in Roundup Case

23andMe Starts Chapter 11 Process, Co-Founder Steps Down as CEO

James Hardie Agrees to Buy AZEK for $8.75 Billion

Why Does Big Bird Look So Sad?

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Morning News: March 21, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 21st, 2025 at 5:45 am

Japan Inflation Slows But Uptrend Backs Case for Rate Hikes

China’s Government Is Short of Money as Its Leaders Face Trump

Russia Touts Economic Opportunities. Western Companies Are Wary.

Today’s Autocrat Has No Liberal West to Blame

Europe Is Short of Gunpowder and TNT When It Needs Them Most

Why the Shipping Industry Isn’t Rushing Back to the Red Sea

French Factories Remain Under Tariff Cloud as Hopes Grow for Defense Boost

Tracking Every Trump Tariff and Its Economic Effect

Why the Fed’s Job May Get a Lot More Difficult

Rio Tinto Has ‘Strong Desire’ to Invest More in U.S., Copper Chief Says

Frackers, Once Jubilant, Are Unnerved by Trump’s First Weeks in Office

Trump to Expand Critical Mineral Output Using Wartime Powers

From Ford to Musk, the Perils of Trying to Build a Global Auto Empire

Tesla Recalls Most Cybertrucks Due to Trim Detaching from Vehicle

Musk Asks Tesla Employees to Hang On to Stock Despite 40% Drop

Elon Musk Gets Ready to Enter the Restaurant Business

Home Sales Rose 4.2% in February, Beating Expectations

What Happens to Student Loans if the Education Dept. Closes?

Mar-a-Lago, or Much Ado That Might Never Happen

The New American Travel Anxiety: ‘Will They Hate Us?’

One Man’s Crypto Windfall Is Funding a $1 Billion Space Station Dream

Meituan Nearly Triples Profit Despite Competition

Wine Connoisseurs Freeze Purchases Over Trump’s 200% Tariff Risk

Ben & Jerry’s Founders Say They Stand Behind Ousted CEO

How Bryan Johnson, Who Wants to Live Forever, Sought Control via Confidentiality Agreements

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Morning News: March 20, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 20th, 2025 at 7:05 am

A New ‘China Shock’ Is Destroying Jobs Around the World

Taiwan Central Bank Leaves Key Interest Rates Unchanged

Swiss Central Bank Cuts Key Rate While Sweden’s Riksbank Holds

Hold the Obituary: Europe Comes to Life as U.S. Stumbles

Higher Tariffs Would Raise Inflation, Slow Growth, ECB’s Lagarde Says

The Word Executives Are Using to Describe Trump’s Tariff Policy

Debt Issuance by Governments of Rich Countries to Hit Record High, OECD Says

Fed Soothes as Trump Seethes

Powell Downplays Growing Risks, Sees Tariff Impact as Transitory

What the Fed’s Rate Policy Means for Your Finances

The Fed Is Clueless, Too. And That’s OK

Hapag-Lloyd Expects Earnings to Sink This Year in Stormy Market Conditions

Treasuries Extend Gains From Fed as Market Bets on Lower Rates

SNB Won’t Follow Trump’s Crypto Reserves Push, Schlegel Says

Crypto Exchange Kraken Strikes $1.5 Billion Deal for Futures Trading Business

BlackRock Bets on Consumer Push as it Chases European Savers

Citi’s Private Equity ‘Club’ Underwhelmed Billionaire Members

USAID Ruling May Be Beginning of the End for Musk

Meet Elon Musk’s Top Lieutenant Who Oversees DOGE

Larry Ellison Joins the Billionaires Reshaping Florida Real Estate

Signs of an Office Market Bottom: ‘The Worst Is Probably Over’

How the AI Boom Created the Most Valuable Monopolies in History

Cow Wearables Help America’s Dairy Farmers Detect Bird Flu and Other Illnesses

Temu Owner PDD Posts Slowest Revenue Growth Since Early 2022

Swiss Watch Exports Report a Marked Slowdown

Nike Killshot Is the Next Adidas Samba

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Morning News: March 19, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 19th, 2025 at 7:09 am

Trump Has Hinted at a Xi Visit. China Is Still Wondering What He Wants.

Threatening Canada Is More Putin Than Reagan

Bank of Japan Leaves Rates Steady as U.S. Uncertainty Heightens

Turkish Markets Nosedive After Erdogan’s Main Rival Detained

Indonesia’s Central Bank Stands Pat as Expected Amid Volatility

Eurozone Inflation Cooler Than Thought, Underscoring Sluggish Economy

E.U. Hatches a Plan to Lure Investors Back to Europe

Irish Economic Outlook Hit by Tariff Uncertainty, Central Bank Says

Close to 5,000 ESG Funds in Europe Now Hold Oil, Gas and Coal

Farmers Have Fair Trade Complaints, but Tariffs Are a Bigger Worry

The 1960s ‘Chicken Tax’ Shows the Lasting Impact of Tariffs

As Debt Ceiling Looms, the Fed Considers Tweaking Its Portfolio Runoff

Does the Fed Share the Stock Market’s Worry About the Economy?

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s March Meeting

DOGE Just Might Usher In New Era of Big Government

‘Will I Lose My Job?’ Federal Workers Flock to Reddit for Answers.

How TD Became America’s Most Convenient Bank for Money Launderers

Cathie Wood Sells Meta Shares for First Time in Nearly a Year

Samsung Vows to Reclaim Ground in AI Memory Market With Rollout

Tencent’s Revenue Growth Accelerates on Robust Gaming Business

Advanced Instruments to Buy Nova Biomedical From Founding Shareholders in $2.2 Billion Deal

Ben & Jerry’s Says CEO Fired by Unilever on Political Stance

Mom, the Brands Are Fighting Again

At Forever 21, the Adrenaline Rush Was the Point

Nike Returns to Sports While Investors Impatiently Await Reset

In Japan, Shohei Ohtani Is a National Hero and Marketer’s Dream

San Francisco Giants Sell Stake to Private Equity

Hollywood Filmmaker Charged With $11 Million Conspiracy to Defraud Netflix

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Morning News: March 18, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 18th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Hong Kong Piles On to Beijing’s Growing Criticism of Panama Canal Deal

European Central Bank May Need Fresh Cuts as Trade Turmoil Burdens Growth, Rehn Says

German Economic Sentiment Climbs After Politicians Pledge Ramp-Up in Spending

Pete Hegseth Is Closing a Pentagon Office That Wins Wars

Gold Rises to Record on Middle East Tension, US Economy Concerns

U.S. Tariff Increases to Slow Global Economy, Boost Inflation, OECD Says

White House Tries to Restore Order to Disruptive Tariff Rollout

For Importers Rushing to Beat Tariffs, It’s Life on the Edge

Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree.

Bessent Sees No Reason for Recession, Economic Data ‘Healthy’

Trump Nominates Federal Reserve Governor Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision

Powell Contends With Double Threat of Economic Chaos and Political Hostility

Elon Musk’s Starlink Expands Across White House Complex

DOGE’s Real Goal Is Privatizing Government

Nasdaq Plans Second U.S. Headquarters in Texas

Overnight Trading Gains Steam as Clearing Firm to Extend Hours

JPMorgan Stock Traders Reel In Windfall as Trump Whipsaws Market

Ukrainian Telecom Group Kyivstar to Go Public on Nasdaq at $2.21 Billion Valuation

Nvidia Is Hosting the Super Bowl of A.I.

From Courtrooms to Crisis Lines, Chinese Officials Embrace DeepSeek

Xiaomi’s Quarterly Net Profit Soars 90% on Record Revenue

Trump’s Unwelcome News to Auto Chiefs: Buckle Up for What’s to Come

XPeng Guides for Surging Revenue, EV Sales as Loss Narrows

Cheap Chinese Cars Are Taking Over Roads From Brazil to South Africa

Congo’s Cobalt Ban Is Rooted in China’s Cheap EV Bonanza

AirAsia to Keep Cutting Prices, Grow Fleet to Get Revenue Flying Again

P&G Takes Lead in 95-Year Rivalry With Unilever

Community Notes Can’t Save Social Media From Itself

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