Morning News: March 30, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 30th, 2018 at 7:04 am

Stocks Are About to Get a $400 Billion Dividend Boost

NYSE in Talks to Buy Chicago Stock Exchange

Bitcoin is Falling Back to Earth. It’s Now Below $7,000

Coffee Must Carry Cancer Warning, California Judge Rules

Trump May Have a Beef With Amazon But Consumers Can’t Get Enough of It

Walmart in Early-Stage Acquisition Talks With Humana

Facebook’s Zuckerberg Disavows Memo Saying All User Growth is Good

IQiyi, the ‘Chinese Netflix,’ Pockets More Than $2 Billion in IPO, Stock Falls in Debut

Telegram Raises $1.7 Billion in Coin Offering, May Seek More

SpaceX Gains Official Approval to Launch High-Speed Satellite Internet Service

Under Armour Says 150 Million MyFitnessPal Accounts Breached

Toast This Easter With Peeps-Flavored Beer

Roger Nusbaum: Learning From Iomega

Michael Batnick: Belief and Doubt

Jeff Carter: Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity-Risk, Risk, Risk Solve For It And Make A Billion Dollars

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45-Year Low for Initial Claims
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 29th, 2018 at 1:24 pm

Today’s initial jobless claims report came in at 215,000. That’s the lowest since January 27, 1973.

We also learned this morning that personal income rose 0.4% in February while personal spending rose 0.2%.

Morning News: March 29, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 29th, 2018 at 7:08 am

Trade Deals Take Years. Trump Wants to Remake Them in Months.

The IRS Is Auditing a Lot Fewer Americans

It’s the No. 1 Power Source, But Natural Gas Faces Headwinds

Nissan, Renault in Talks to Merge, Create New Company

Facebook Could Be Fined Millions for Violating Consent Deal

Airbnb to Share Information With Authorities on Guests in China

Warren Buffett Is Now America’s No. 2 Real Estate Broker

The Clock Is Ticking Faster at Tesla

Boeing Possibly Hit By `WannaCry’ Malware Attack

Uber Isolated by Partners and Competitors in Aftermath of Crash

Takeda Shares Fall as Investors Queasy Over Possible Bid for Shire

Anbang Was Seized by China. Now, It Has a Deal For You.

Jeff Miller: How to Exploit an Inefficient Market

Ben Carlson: That Time a U.S. Senator Tried to Actually Me

Josh Brown: Transition

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The Market Rotates Away from Tech
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 28th, 2018 at 10:42 am

Yesterday was an unusual day for the market. At noon, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5%. After that, the wheels fell off and the index closed down 1.7%.

What’s interesting is that once again, it was tech stocks that took the blame. The tech sector has lagged the S&P 500 seven times in the last eight days, and it’s doing so again today. Now it’s Amazon’s turn to bring down the indexes. (Technically, Amazon is classified as a consumer discretionary.)

This recent market action has been very good for our Buy List. Well, very good for the relative strength of our Buy List. By that I mean that we haven’t suffered nearly as much on down days.

Some of this is the unwinding of the FAANG Trade where a small group of very large stocks gobbled up most of the gains. Facebook, for example, has been creamed recently.

In the last seven weeks, the S&P 500 has lost -3.06% while the Buy List is down just -0.22%.

Q4 GDP Revised to 2.9%
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 28th, 2018 at 10:01 am

This morning, the government revised Q4 GDP growth from 2.5% to 2.9%. This means that the last three quarters of 2017 saw decent growth. This was the first time in 13 years that the economy strung together three decent quarters in a row.

Bear in mind that Q4 began six months ago and ended three months ago, so this is old news. In one more month, we’ll get a look at Q1 GDP. The Atlanta Fed sees Q1 coming in at 1.8% while the New York Fed is at 2.9%.

Morning News: March 28, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 28th, 2018 at 7:04 am

Asia Pacific Dealmakers Fear M&A Slowdown Will Continue

Trump Secures Trade Deal With South Korea Ahead of Nuclear Talks

Softbank to Build World’s Biggest Solar Park in Saudi Arabia

Shire Surges on News of Possible Takeda Bid

Rio Tinto’s Coal Canary Stops Tweeting

Warehouses Are Now Worth More Than Offices, Thanks to Amazon

Oracle Wins Court Ruling Against Google in Multibillion-Dollar Copyright Case

Tesla Says Cause of Crash Not Yet Known as Challenges Mount

Waymo is Buying Up to 20,000 Jaguars and Plans to Rev Up a Driverless Ride-Hailing Service

Nvidia: Does the Whole Self-Driving Timeline Have to Be Reassessed?

NXP Semiconductors Sells China JV Stake as Qualcomm Takeover Awaits Beijing Nod

Apple’s New iPad is a Total Misfire that Shows How Out of Touch the Company is With Schools and Kids

Cullen Roche: The Best Investment Strategy: DISCIPLINE

Jeff Carter: Do Seed Funds Seed?

Lawrence Hamtil: Exploring the Low-Volatility Phenomenon: An Interview with Pim van Vliet, PhD

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FactSet Earned $2.12 per Share
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 27th, 2018 at 7:56 am

This morning FactSet (FDS) reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $2.12 per share. That’s a healthy 17.1% increase over last year’s Q2. The consensus on Wall Street was for $2.06 per share. In the last CWS Market Review, I said I was looking for something between $2.08 and $2.11 per share, so FDS beat even optimistic forecasts.

Digging into the numbers, organic revenues increased 5.7% to $310.4 million. A key metric I watch is their adjusted operating margin. That fell from 33.1% in last year’s Q2 to 31.4% for this year. The company blamed negative foreign exchange. On the plus side, free cash flow rose more than 20% to $86.1 million.

An important metric for FDS is what the company calls “Annual Subscription Value” or ASV. At the end of Q2, that stood at $1.35 billion. Their “organic” ASV rose by 5.8%. That could be higher.

Like many companies, FDS was greatly helped by a lower tax rate. The company also approved adding $300 million to their current share buyback program.

FactSet stopped providing quarterly guidance but they still do for the full year. The company raised their 2018 guidance range for this by 10 cents at both ends. They now see full-year adjusted EPS between $8.35 and $8.55 per share.

FDS is down a bit in today’s trading, but i’s nothing big. Remember that FDS rallied nearly 15% for us from February 8 to March 20.

Morning News: March 27, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 27th, 2018 at 7:03 am

Dow and S&P Have Their Best Day in Nearly Three Years

Germany at Odds With France Over Tariffs on U.S. Cars

Zuckerberg Refuses UK Parliament Summons Over FB Data Misuse

Arizona Governor Suspends Uber’s Self-Driving Cars From Roads

Foxconn to Buy Consumer Electronics Company Belkin in Another Foreign Bid for a U.S. Firm

GSK Buys Novartis’s Stake in Health-Care Unit for $13 Billion

Carlyle-Led Consortium to Buy Akzo Nobel’s Chemicals Unit for $12.6 Billion

The Real Problem With Elon Musk’s Massive Tesla Pay Package

BMW Plans Vehicle-Subscription Pilot in Nashville

Berkshire-Backed USG Rejects $5.9 Billion Takeover by Knauf

How Microsoft Could Reach $1 Trillion in Stock Market Value

The Billionaire Whisperer Who United Bezos, Buffett and Dimon

Howard Lindzon: Tired of Selling Facebook… and Momentum Monday

Michael Batnick: Sometimes This Sucks

Roger Nusbaum: Markets Crumble Under the Weight of Tariff Threats

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The Market Bounces Back
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 26th, 2018 at 11:45 am

Friday was a terrible day for Wall Street. Last week was the worst week for the S&P 500 in more than two years. The index came very close to going below its 200-day moving average. We bounced off it a few weeks ago, and did so again today.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average by 0.08%. The index hasn’t closed below it in 21 months, and that was for just one day after Brexit.

In terms of relative performance, Friday was a very good day for our Buy List. The S&P 500 lost 2.10% while our Buy List was down 1.64%.

The market is looking much better. One exception is Facebook. The losses here are quite stunning. The shares dipped below $150 today. Six days ago (the Friday before last), FB closed at $185 per share.

Morning News: March 26, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 26th, 2018 at 6:52 am

China’s Oil Futures Soar on Debut

U.S. Stock Futures Start Week With a Reprieve

As Trade War Heats Up, Biggest Currency Whales Make Their Move

It May Pay to Fight IRS Penalties

Mark Zuckerberg Apologizes For Facebook Privacy Scandal in Full-Page Newspaper Ads

As Amazon Steps Up Tax Collections, Some Cities Are Left Out

Uber Is Giving Up on Southeast Asia

Smurfit Rejects Fresh $11 Billion International Paper Bid

Gun Maker Remington Seeks Bankruptcy Protection

JPMorgan Brings Amazon’s Alexa to Wall Street Trading Floors

Apple Goes to Hollywood. Will Its Story Have a Happy Ending?

Battered by Great Recession, Underfunded Public Pensions to Persist

Jeff Miller: Can a Trade War Be Avoided?

Joshua Brown: Strategy

Ben Carlson: On The One Hand…

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