That Crazy Amazon Stat
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 7th, 2016 at 10:16 am

Yesterday, I told Brian Sullivan that Amazon.com has gained 1%, on average, every 11 days for the last 20 years.

A lot of folks have asked me about that stat so I’ll share the details with you.

The key detail is the word “average.”

Amazon went public on May 15, 1997 at $18 per share. Adjusted for three stock splits, that comes to $1.50 per share.

The stock closed yesterday at $788.87. That means Amazon gained 525.91-fold in 7,054 calendar days.

Using a little math, that means Amazon gained an average 0.0889% every calendar day. That works out to 1% every 11.2 days.

Morning News: September 7, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 7th, 2016 at 7:06 am

August Job Data Muddles Fed Rate Hike Chance: ETFs To Buy

ITT Tech Shutdown Could Cost Taxpayers Nearly $500 Million

Goldman Sachs Bans Employees from Donating to Trump

VW Is Exploring an Electric Car Venture With China’s JAC Motor

Chipotle Options Include More Franchising, Prepping for Sale as Ackman Launches Campaign

Apple, Show Us Your Taxes

Why Lego Wanted People to Stop Buying Its Toys

Can Allergan CEO Brent Saunders Lead Big Pharma To A Better Reputation?

Enbridge May Have Just Touched Off a ‘Supermajor’ Race for Pipes

Amazon Launches Restaurant Delivery for Prime Members in London

EOG Resources – Market Pays For Quality In An Excellent Deal

Samsung Says $38 Million of Goods On Board Two Hanjin Vessels

Dell Posts Modest Revenue Growth on Eve of EMC Merger

Roger Nusbaum: September Is Off The Table!

Howard Lindzon: The Birth of ‘Cheddar’ ….More Death to CNBC

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Amazon hits all-time high
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 6th, 2016 at 4:36 pm

Three months ago, Brian Sullivan asked my opinion of Amazon.com (AMZN), and I said to stay away. The stock is up about 8% since then.

Well…I still think it’s too high:

The Ibbotson Yearbook Is Back
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 6th, 2016 at 11:21 am

For many years, Ibbotson Associates has been known as the leading provider of long-term market data. If you’ve been anywhere near a brokerage office, you’ve probably seen their long-term charts showing how well the market has done.

Every year, Ibbotson (now owned by Morningstar) has released its yearbook which updates all the important data. For some reason, Ibbotson said it was discontinuing its yearbook this year. This prompted mass mourning by us data fiends.

I’m pleased to say that good sense prevailed and Ibbotson released its yearbook for 2015. I just got it in the mail. The data starts at year-end 1925 and runs through year-end 2015.

Here’s what the chart looks like:

This is what $1 looks like if it were invested in the stock market over the last 90 years. The graph is logarithmic.

One dollar in December 1925 became $5,390 by December 2015. Annualized, that works out to 10.02%. That includes dividends.

Over that time, inflation has run at an annualized rate of 2.91%.

In real terms, the stock market has averaged a real return of 6.90%.

That means the market has doubled, in real terms, on average, every 10.4 years.

The Worst Part of the Investing Year
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 6th, 2016 at 10:59 am

Today is September 6 which has historically been the worst time of the year to invest. Let me back up and say that this is based on 120 years of the Dow so using that advice for one particular year is not a good idea.

The bad luck stretches from September 6 to October 29, a total of 53 days. Over that time period, the Dow has lost 2.31%. Of course, that’s not much of a move, but in 120-year averages, that’s a lot. The Dow’s average annual gain is 7.3% so you can see how that 53-day loss cuts into the long-term average.

Why has this pattern existed? I think there’s probably a natural reaction to take back some of the gains accrued over the summer. The data has also been impacted by extreme years such as 1929 and 1987.

Here’s what the Dow’s average year looks like. I smushed 120 years’ worth of data into one year and set it to 100 on January 1.

To be clear, I don’t invest based on these seasonal effects. I merely think they’re interesting for their own sake.

Morning News: September 6, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 6th, 2016 at 7:02 am

Schaeuble Says German Budget Means Stability in Uncertain Times

German Factory Orders Undershoot Forecast as Momentum Cools

Saudi Arabia And Russia Oil Agreement Not Worth The Paper It’s Signed On

Hong Kong Squares Up to Singapore, Australia With Fintech Hub

Higher Rates Increase The Cost Of Carrying Commodity Inventories

Hanjin Shipping’s Parent Steps In to Help Unload Stranded Cargo

G.E. Offers $1.4 Billion for 3-D Printing Technology Companies

Intel’s Latest Acquisition Is All About Giving Sight to Machines

Bayer Sweetens Monsanto Bid as Talks Enter Final Stretch

Lego Profit Slips as Toy Maker Ramps Up Investment

General Motors Settles Last Bellwether Ignition-Switch Cases

VietJet Buys $2.39 Billion in Airbus Planes

Musk Confronts Wall Street Divided on Tesla in Plea to Workers

Jeff Miller: Test Your Employment Report IQ

Josh Brown: Amenomaniacs!

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Morning News: September 5, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 5th, 2016 at 7:20 am

Sterling Jumps as U.K. Services Data Allays Brexit Fears

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Sees the Other Side of Negative Rates

Saudi, Russia Pledge Oil Cooperation Without Agreeing Freeze

Oil Pares Gains After Saudi, Russia Sign Pact

Obama Makes Trade Deal Top Priority in Remaining Months

Hanjin Bankruptcy: What Does It Mean To The Global Containerized Shipping Industry?

Telefonica Eyes Sale of Minority Stake in Britain’s O2

Alphabet Ends Effort to Create Modular Smartphone

Volkswagen Faces Brussels Push for Penalties in 20 EU Countries

Smith & Wesson Is On Fire, But Is It Almost Out Of Bullets?

UPS Is About to Get More Expensive

Coca-Cola Says It ‘Replenished’ All The Water It Used to Make Its Soft Drinks

Is Elon Musk Trying To Do Too Much Too Fast?

Jeff Miller: Should We Expect September Mourning?

Cullen Roche: Three Things I Think I Think – Unrealistic Expectations Edition

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Morning News: September 2, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 2nd, 2016 at 7:06 am

China Expedites Economic Transition

Israel Courts Foreign Money In Effort to Become Gas Exporter

In Shakeup, Most Greek TV Stations Set To Lose Licenses

Is The Banking System Stable? FDIC Data Give Warnings

U.S. Firms Take Action Against Hanjin Shipping As Half Its Fleet Gets Blocked

European Commission Hits Back at Former Official in Apple Tax Spat

Caterpillar Considers Closing Belgian Site, Laying Off 2,000

Can Organic Gatorade Succeed?

Yum Brands Sells Slice of China Business Ahead of Spinoff

Enbridge Scraps Plan to Build Sandpiper Amid Bakken

Rocket Internet Posts First-Half Loss, Shares Plunge

When a Commercial Rocket Blows Up, Who Pays?

Samsung Issues Recall for Galaxy Note 7 After Battery Fires

Josh Brown: August NFP Preview: Big Lie Coming

Jeff Carter: A Lot of Things Are Counter-Intuitive

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It’s Been Three Sweet Decades for Hershey
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 1st, 2016 at 1:58 pm

Morning News: September 1, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 1st, 2016 at 7:00 am

Yellen Speech Contained Clue to Reading the August Jobs Report

Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Affairs Will Be Overseen by & Experts in Finance and Law

Wall Street’s Next Frontier Is Hacking Into Emotions of Traders

Manufacturing Falters as Global Demand Weakens

Billionaire Li’s Victory in Italy Snaps String of Deal Setbacks

Macau Gaming Snaps Two-Year Drop to Rise 1.1% on New Resorts

Walmart Plans Early Layaway Program to Catch ‘Star Wars’ Holiday Boost

British Airways Flights to Iran Set to Resume

Tim Cook, Apple Chief, Defends Tax Practices and Says Cash Will Return to U.S.

Former Air China Manager Charged With Smuggling in U.S. for Chinese Military

Hanjin Ships Get Stranded in High Seas, Roiling Supply Chain

Samsung Mobile Recovery Suffers Blow As Galaxy Notes ‘Catch Fire’

Hollywood’s Summertime Bombs Got a Lot More Disastrous This Year

Roger Nusbaum: Is Barron’s Right About Options Funds?

Jeff Miller: Why Smart Investors Struggle to Beat the Market: Over-emphasis on Recent Performance

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