• S&P 500 Futures
    Posted by on December 20th, 2012 at 11:50 pm

    It’s the “down” part of the graph that has people worried.

  • Futures Down Big
    Posted by on December 20th, 2012 at 8:29 pm

    Futures for the S&P 500 are trading down big right now after John Boehner pulled his tax bill because he doesn’t have enough votes. Boehner had been pushing his Plan B bill to counteract the president.

    A move like this isn’t completely unexpected. Both sides need to prove to their bases that they’ve done all that they can do. They’re both willing to use the market as the one who vetoes their pretend standoff. On Tuesday, I tweeted:

    In the next two weeks the S&P 500 will drop 2% in a day as someone is accused of undermining the good vibes from the Cliff negotiations.

    Two weeks? More like two days.

  • “Market Experts’ Advice for 2013”
    Posted by on December 20th, 2012 at 6:34 pm

    Roben Farzad of BloombergBusinessWeek was kind enough to include me in his round-up of “Market Experts’ Advice for 2013.”

  • 2012…Now in Chart Form
    Posted by on December 20th, 2012 at 3:45 pm

    Matt O’Brien of The Atlantic asked a bunch of folks, including me, for their “charts of the year” for 2012.

    If you’re a chartophile, like me, then this is a quick and easy way to see the important trends that defined 2012.

    So check out “Everything You Need To Know About the Economy in 2012, in 34 Charts.”

  • Q3 GDP Revised Up to 3.1%
    Posted by on December 20th, 2012 at 10:52 am

    The stock market is mostly flat this morning. The government revised the third-quarter GDP report up to 3.1%. That’s the third-best growth number of the last 21 quarters. The number for Q4, however, most likely won’t be nearly as good. The weak spot in today’s economic news is that jobless claims rose for the first time in five weeks. Despite the rise, we’re very close to making a five-year low.

    From our Buy List, coming off its good earnings report, Oracle ($ORCL) announced it’s buying Eloqua for $811 million. The dud on the Buy List this morning is Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY). The stock is down about 9% after its weak forecast for Q4. I thought the stock wouldn’t be down today as much as it was after-hours. Such is not the case.

  • Morning News: December 20, 2012
    Posted by on December 20th, 2012 at 7:20 am

    Foreign Exchange Outlook Splits Banks

    U.K. Retail Sales Stall as Consumer Weakness Persists

    Rajoy Drives Spanish Revolution With Low-Cost Manufacture

    Leniency Denied, UBS Unit Admits Guilt in Rate Case

    Libor Banking Scandal May Have Cost U.S. Mortgage Agencies $3 Billion

    Obama Proving $418 Billion Bailout No Failure as GM Buys Shares

    AMT Will Hit 100M People, Warns IRS Commissioner

    Fed’s $4 Trillion Rescue Helps Hedge Fund as Savers Hurt

    FedEx Maintains Full-Year Forecast Amid Economic Concerns

    Ericsson to Take $1.2 Billion Charge on Writedown of Cellphone Venture

    Knight Takes Higher Price in Getco Sacrifices Cash Certainty

    Google to Sell Motorola Home to Arris for $2.35 Billion

    N.Y.S.E. Is in Talks for Merger

    Joshua Brown: Investment Fads and Themes by Year, 1996 – 2012

    Cullen Roche: What is FedEx Telling Us About The Global Economy?

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Update on Nicholas Financial
    Posted by on December 20th, 2012 at 12:24 am

    I want everyone to be clear on what just happened with Nicholas Financial ($NICK).

    Tuesday was the last day one could buy the shares to qualify for the big dividend.

    As such, the stock lost $2 per share in value on Wednesday. Shareholders, of course, aren’t losing anything since that $2 will be paid out to them. On Wednesday’s trading, NICK lost $2.29 per share, so that was $2 due to the dividend and 29 cents as a part of regular trading.

    When the dividend was announced, NICK was at $13.35 so the stock has only lost 90 cents per share. In effect, the stock gains $1.10 per share before we adjust for the $2 dividend.

    What I’m trying to say is that we’ve made a nice profit on this whole special dividend plan.

  • Bed Bath & Beyond Earns $1.03 Per Share
    Posted by on December 19th, 2012 at 4:26 pm

    Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) just reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $1.03 per share which was one penny better than estimates. Sales rose 15.3% to $2.702 billion. The key metric for retailers is comparable-store sales. For Q3, that rose by 1.7%. The company estimates that Hurricane Sandy knocked 0.9% off comparable-store sales growth.

    Bed Bath & Beyond also announced a $2.5 billion share repurchase program. Personally, I’d much rather have a dividend.

    This was a decent quarter for Bed Bath & Beyond, and it’s a nice rebound from Q2. BBBY’s guidance, however, was a bit weak. For Q4, they see earnings ranging between $1.60 and $1.67 per share. The Street was expecting $1.75. The stock is down in the after-hours market but I don’t expect tomorrow’s open to be too severe.

    Here are the sales and earnings figures for the past few quarters:

    Quarter Sales Gross Profit Operating Profit Net Profit EPS
    May-99 $356,633 $146,214 $28,015 $17,883 $0.06
    Aug-99 $451,715 $185,570 $53,580 $33,247 $0.12
    Nov-00 $480,145 $196,784 $50,607 $31,707 $0.11
    Feb-00 $569,012 $238,233 $77,138 $48,392 $0.17
    May-00 $459,163 $187,293 $36,339 $23,364 $0.08
    Aug-00 $589,381 $241,284 $70,009 $43,578 $0.15
    Nov-01 $602,004 $246,080 $64,592 $40,665 $0.14
    Feb-01 $746,107 $311,802 $101,898 $64,315 $0.22
    May-01 $575,833 $234,959 $45,602 $30,007 $0.10
    Aug-01 $713,636 $291,342 $84,672 $53,954 $0.18
    Nov-02 $759,438 $311,030 $83,749 $52,964 $0.18
    Feb-02 $879,055 $370,235 $132,077 $82,674 $0.28
    May-02 $776,798 $318,362 $72,701 $46,299 $0.15
    Aug-02 $903,044 $370,335 $119,687 $75,459 $0.25
    Nov-03 $936,030 $386,224 $119,228 $75,112 $0.25
    Feb-03 $1,049,292 $443,626 $168,441 $105,309 $0.35
    May-03 $893,868 $367,180 $90,450 $57,508 $0.19
    Aug-03 $1,111,445 $459,145 $155,867 $97,208 $0.32
    Nov-04 $1,174,740 $486,987 $161,459 $100,506 $0.33
    Feb-04 $1,297,928 $563,352 $231,567 $144,248 $0.47
    May-04 $1,100,917 $456,774 $128,707 $82,049 $0.27
    Aug-04 $1,273,960 $530,829 $189,108 $120,008 $0.39
    Nov-05 $1,305,155 $548,152 $190,978 $121,927 $0.40
    Feb-05 $1,467,646 $650,546 $283,621 $180,980 $0.59
    May-05 $1,244,421 $520,781 $150,884 $98,903 $0.33
    Aug-05 $1,431,182 $601,784 $217,877 $141,402 $0.47
    Nov-06 $1,448,680 $615,363 $205,493 $134,620 $0.45
    Feb-06 $1,685,279 $747,820 $304,917 $197,922 $0.67
    May-06 $1,395,963 $590,098 $148,750 $100,431 $0.35
    Aug-06 $1,607,239 $678,249 $219,622 $145,535 $0.51
    Nov-07 $1,619,240 $704,073 $211,134 $142,436 $0.50
    Feb-07 $1,994,987 $862,982 $309,895 $205,842 $0.72
    May-07 $1,553,293 $646,109 $154,391 $104,647 $0.38
    Aug-07 $1,767,716 $732,158 $211,037 $147,008 $0.55
    Nov-08 $1,794,747 $747,866 $203,152 $138,232 $0.52
    Feb-08 $1,933,186 $799,098 $259,442 $172,921 $0.66
    May-08 $1,648,491 $656,000 $118,819 $76,777 $0.30
    Aug-08 $1,853,892 $739,321 $187,421 $119,268 $0.46
    Nov-08 $1,782,683 $692,857 $136,374 $87,700 $0.34
    Feb-09 $1,923,274 $785,058 $231,282 $141,378 $0.55
    May-09 $1,694,340 $666,818 $142,304 $87,172 $0.34
    Aug-09 $1,914,909 $773,393 $222,031 $135,531 $0.52
    Nov-09 $1,975,465 $812,412 $245,611 $151,288 $0.58
    Feb-10 $2,244,079 $955,496 $370,741 $226,042 $0.86
    May-10 $1,923,051 $775,036 $225,394 $137,553 $0.52
    Aug-10 $2,136,730 $874,918 $296,902 $181,755 $0.70
    Nov-10 $2,193,755 $896,508 $305,110 $188,574 $0.74
    Feb-11 $2,504,967 $1,076,467 $461,052 $283,451 $1.12
    May-11 $2,109,951 $857,572 $288,948 $180,578 $0.72
    Aug-11 $2,314,064 $950,999 $371,636 $229,372 $0.93
    Nov-11 $2,343,561 $958,693 $357,020 $228,544 $0.95
    Feb-12 $2,732,314 $1,163,669 $550,765 $351,043 $1.48
    May-12 $2,218,292 $887,199 $313,398 $206,836 $0.89
    Aug-12 $2,593,015 $1,032,669 $365,137 $224,330 $0.98
    Nov-12 $2,701,801 $1,074,010 $361,649 $232,750 $1.03

  • News Corp. at 13-Year High
    Posted by on December 19th, 2012 at 1:16 pm

    Being in opposition can apparently be quite profitable. News Corp. ($NWSA), the parent of Fox, hit a 13-year high today. The shares are up more than 250% since President Obama was inaugurated. The stock lost more than 59% during President Bush’s time in office.

  • Mark Hurd on Oracle’s Earnings
    Posted by on December 19th, 2012 at 11:03 am